In a testament to just how stacked the UFC 300 card is, Jessica Andrade, the former Women’s Strawweight champion, will be in action in the early prelims. Let’s get into our Jessica Andrade-Marina Rodriguez pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jessica Andrade-Marina Rodriguez Pick, Odds and Preview
Andrade-Rodriguez Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight
Andrade: -145 | Rodriguez: +110
Andrade -3.5: +120 | Rodriguez +3.5: -165
Over 2.5: -140 | Under 2.5: +110
Andrade-Rodriguez Pick & Preview
In the penultimate fight of the early prelims, former champion Jessica Andrade (25-12) faces off against Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2). I like riding with Andrade on the moneyline, as I expect her pressure on the feet and grappling will prove too much for Rodriguez to handle.
Coming off a three-fight skid, Andrade made a statement in her bounce-back knockout of Mackenzie Dern, dropping her four times before finishing the job with a brutal punch, adding another feather to her cap that demonstrates just how dangerous she can be. Nine of her 16 wins have come by way of finish. Rodriguez has shown flashes of knockout power, but she only finished two of her seven UFC victories, with the rest coming by decision.
It seems that only Andrade can turn this fight around even if she finds herself losing. This is in part from her grappling advantage. She averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Rodriguez’s 0.25.
If she finds herself losing exchanges on the feet, she can look to take the fight to the ground to find a submission or to inflict some damage. Andrade shouldn’t face too much resistance in this regard, as Rodriguez only defends the takedown 66% of the time.
This assumes that Andrade struggles on the feet. However, I expect her to pressure Rodriguez heavily. Andrade lands 6.67 significant strikes per minute at a 50% rate, compared to Rodriguez’s 4.77.
While Rodriguez does a better job of mitigating damage than Andrade, absorbing only 2.89 significant strikes per minute compared to 5.36, Andrade’s power should help make up for the defensive gaps.
Overall, this should be an interesting fight, but I like Andrade down to the -175 range, given her grappling and power advantage.
Best UFC Andrade-Rodriguez Bet & Pick: Andrade ML -145 at DraftKings
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