With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Jim Miller-Gabriel Benitez pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Jim Miller-Gabriel Benitez Pick, Odds and Preview
Jim Miller-Gabriel Benitez Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Miller: -150 | Benitez : +120
Miller: -3.5: -115 | Benitez +3.5: -115
Over 1.5: -140 | Under 1.5: +110
Jim Miller-Gabriel Benitez Pick & Preview
Jim Miller (36-17) and Gabriel Benitez (23-11) come into this scrap with very different levels of recent success.
While Miller has recaptured some of his early career dominance in his recent 4-1 streak, Benitez hit a rough patch with four losses in his last six, dropping his UFC record to 7-6 overall. Nonetheless, each is dangerous and can end the fight quickly if given the chance.
In their past few fights, both Benitez and Miller found success or failure through the knockout, but this recent trend doesn’t fully reflect their overall careers.
Combined, the fighters went to the judges’ cards in 23 of their 51 UFC fights (45%). This is largely driven by Miller, as 19 of his 41 fights went the distance.
Miller’s propensity for longer fights is unsurprising given his relatively low striking output: he lands just 2.86 significant strikes per minute. While his recent knockout streak came as the result of him employing a more aggressive style, likely due to his paltry 8-11 record in fights ending in decision, Miller won’t want to stand and bang with Benitez.
Landing nearly five significant strikes per minute and procuring three knockouts, Benitez poses a real danger on the feet that Miller would be wise to mitigate as much as possible.
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Benitez struggles to defend when grappling. He stuffs his opponent’s takedown attempts just 58% of the time, Miller would be best served taking the fight to the ground early and often. Procuring substantial amounts of control time will allow Miller to avoid Benitez’s stopping power and will cut out the possibility he gets out-pointed on the feet.
With odds the fight goes to decision sitting at +200, bookmakers have left an edge for bettors anticipating a long, drawn-out fight.
Jim Miller-Gabriel Benitez Pick: Exact Method of Victory – Decision +200 at DraftKings
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