Let’s dive straight into our Jiri Prochazka-Aleksandar Rakic pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit for UFC 300. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jiri Prochazka-Aleksandar Rakic Pick, Odds and Preview
Prochazka–Rakic Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Prochazka: -110 | Rakic: -110
Prochazka +3.5: -165 | Rakic -3.5: +120
Over 2.5: +124 | Under 2.5: -160
Prochazka–Rakic Pick & Preview
The final fight on the prelims pairs former Light Heavyweight champ Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) against Aleksandar Rakic (14-3). It’s perplexing that Rakic comes into this fight as a favorite, as he hasn’t yet beaten an elite fighter on Prochazka’s level.
After his devastating KO loss to Alex Pereira, some of the hype around Prochazka has died down, but it shouldn’t be enough to leave him as anything less than a -150 favorite. It’s a bit wild that Prochazka only has four fights in the UFC, all of which came against ranked fighters, two of which were title fights. His rise is nothing if not meteoric. On top of his impressive resume, his fight style is aesthetically pleasing. He employs a unique striking style in which he presses forward at a pace many Light Heavyweights cannot match.
Prochazka lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute at a 55% success rate. The rate at which he throws and lands strikes is made more impressive by his strike dispersion. Prochazka lands 82% of strikes to the head, with only 3% going to the legs.
By comparison, Michael Chandler and Max Holloway, two fighters with reputations as aggressive boxers, only land 71% and 67%, respectively, to their opponents’ heads. Prochazka’s aggression enables him to land stunning KOs, as seen in his fight with Dominic Reyes.
One thing that is concerning about Prochazka’s striking is his defense. He absorbs nearly as much damage as he doles out, eating 5.17 significant strikes per minute. Further, he only defends strikes at a 40% rate, which is low for such a high-caliber fighter. This comes, in large part, from his low guard.
Nonetheless, the poor strike defense is a tradeoff generally worth making. It allows him to draw opponents in, which sets up devastating counters — and because Prochazka attacks the head far more than his opponent, the quality of shots he lands contributes to knockouts and damage far more than the shots he absorbs.
Against an elite striker like Alex Pereira, Prochazka’s style was too dangerous, but Rakic is not on that level. He only throws 4.01 significant strikes per minute, with 25% going to the legs. Further, he only knocked out two of his eight opponents in the UFC, with most of his other fights going to decision.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
Rakic’s biggest issue coming into this fight is that he hasn’t yet beaten a fighter on the same level as Prochazka. Rakic’s best win came against seventh-ranked Thiago Santos, who was on a two-fight skid and is 1-5 in his last six fights. He was looking good in his fight against Jan Blachowicz before a freak injury took him out, but there are still open questions as to whether he was going to finish it.
Rakic will need to be more aggressive than he normally is. When he pressures his opponents, he can do some damage, but he is often too passive. This will be a death sentence against Prochazka, who will do everything to pressure Rakic. His biggest advantage may be in getting the fight to the ground, as Prochazka only defends the takedown at a 68% rate, but Rakic only gets 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes. There’s an open question about whether he can submit Prochazka or do real damage if he gets him to the ground.
Prochazka’s resume is undeniable. Rakic’s has too many holes to ride with him as a favorite. If he can get over the top and win against a top-level contender, it will be a feather in his cap, but I don’t see it happening.
Best UFC Prochazka-Rakic Bet & Pick: Prochazka ML -110 at DraftKings
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