After a thrilling UFC 300 card, the UFC returns following a week off for another Fight Night card at the APEX. Let’s get into our Jonathan Pearce-David Onama pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jonathan Pearce-David Onama Pick, Odds and Preview
Pearce-Onama Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Pearce: -150 | Onama: +120
Pearce -3.5: +105 | Onama +3.5: -140
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Pearce-Onama Pick & Preview
Jonathan Pearce (14-5) looks to get back to his winning ways when he takes on David Onama (11-2). Pearce’s high-output grappling should give Onama fits. I expect Onama to spend much of this fight on his back in a lopsided win for Pearce.
Pearce’s nickname of JSP makes sense. He has shown a consistent ability to drag his opponents to the ground and dominate them. If he could get more consistent on the feet, become a Canadian citizen and cement himself firmly in the GOAT conversation, the homage to GSP will be even more clear.
Jokes aside, Pearce has issues standing and striking with many opponents. This was rarely an issue, as his dominant wrestling helped him take the fight to the ground at will, but it remains a lingering concern that opponents can look to exploit.
I don’t think Onama will have much chance to exploit this weakness. He only defends the takedown at 45%. When compared to Pearce’s 5.29 takedowns per 15 at 53% efficiency, Onama will have to make huge leaps in his takedown defense to even attempt to take Pearce out on the feet.
Unfortunately, Onama hasn’t shown much progress in his takedown defense in three years. His UFC debut saw him taken down eight times in a loss. The next two fights came against fighters who land zero and 0.24 takedowns per minute, so grappling wasn’t an issue.
In his last two fights, Onama conceded three takedowns on four attempts in a loss to Nate Landwehr, who only lands one takedown per 15, along with another two takedowns on four attempts in a bounce-back win against Gabrial Santos.
Even if Onama can hold up in takedown defense for longer than expected, Pearce’s relentless pressure will almost certainly crack Onama’s defense at some point. From there, he’ll be able to land heavy shots from the top to make up for any disparity Onama can establish on the feet and do serious damage to potentially end the fight.
Pearce is a safe bet at the -150 line, but for those who want slightly longer odds, the spread wouldn’t be a bad bet with which to ladder.
Best UFC Pearce-Onama Bet & Pick: Pearce ML -150 at DraftKings
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