With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell, pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell Pick, Odds and Preview
Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Mitchell: -195 | Emmett: +145
Mitchell -3.5: -105 | Emmett +3.5: -125
Over 2.5: -195 | Under 2.5: +150
Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell Pick & Preview
A top-ten featherweight bout between Josh Emmett (18-4) and Bryce Mitchell (16-2) kicks off the main card with a classic striker versus wrestler showdown.
With Mitchell’s ability to control the fight on the ground and Emmett’s inability to stop his opponents’ takedowns, we may be in for a wrestling exhibition and one worth taking the points on at -105.
Mitchell usually wins UFC fights in just one way: he takes you to the ground and lays on you until the bell sounds. In his four most recent victories, Emmett has controlled his opponent on the ground for over 42 minutes of a possible 60, three of which he only attempted one submission combined.
Averaging 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, his pace is relentless. Emmett amassed six decision victories in his time in the UFC, five of which he has won on the judges’ scorecards by four or more points. Adding in his submission victory, 85% of his victories covered the 3.5-point spread set by the books.
Emmett could be in for a long night, as he has struggled to stop the takedown, only successfully defending 41% of the time. While there is only a small sample of fights in which Emmett has faced a wrestle-heavy opponent, his last bout against Ilia Topuria saw him get taken down on each of Topuria’s three attempts.
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Though his bout against Topuria was five rounds instead of three, Emmett failed to win a round, which is necessary to cover the spread.
He managed to cover the spread in his only other decision loss, but it was an anomalous split decision in which one judge scored the fight in Emmett’s favor despite him landing fifteen fewer significant strikes overall, including 38 fewer to the head, at a rate 14% lower than his opponent’s.
UFC judges are certainly known to have bizarre scoring decisions, but if Mitchell is to win as the favorite, in all likelihood he will dominate the majority of the fight on the ground and take it mostly out of the judges’ hands.
Best UFC Emmett-Mitchell Bet & Pick: Mitchell -3.5 -105 on DraftKings
