If you’re not getting excited for UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas, you’re missing out. Sure, there’s plenty of college basketball to watch tonight — why not spice things up with some UFC bets? Let’s get into our Karl Williams-Justin Tafa pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Karl Williams-Justin Tafa Pick, Odds and Preview
Williams-Tafa Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Williams: -205 | Tafa: +150
Williams -3.5: -120 | Tafa +3.5: -110
Over 1.5: -180 | Under 1.5: +140
Williams-Tafa Pick & Preview
In the penultimate fight of the night, Karl Williams (9-1) takes on Justin Tafa (7-3) in what is likely to be a clash of styles. Tafa hasn’t shown any glaring flaws in his takedown defense, but Williams is relentless as a grappler.
If Tafa doesn’t find an early knockout, Williams will likely grind him down throughout a comfortable decision victory. Because I don’t see an early knockout happening, I’m riding with Williams’ spread.
Tafa found something of a Tai Tuivasa-like switch in his game. After losing three of his first four UFC fights, two of which came by decision, he found success with early knockouts, winning three of his next four (with one no contest) by first-round KO. This type of style tends to be feast or famine. If Tafa doesn’t knock his opponent out, he doesn’t win, or at least he hasn’t so far.
Tafa will be tested in a way he hasn’t been to this point in his UFC career. In eight bouts, he’s amazingly only had to defend two takedowns, which he was able to do on both occasions. Against Williams, however, he may have to defend the takedown twice in the opening minute. Williams’ wrestling pace is relentless, as he lands four takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a 46% clip.
One issue that prodigious strikers face when they match up with a wrestler is fatigue. While Tafa may not gas out completely, the more Williams can drain his energy in grappling exchanges, the less power he will be able to put on his shots. This is also why knockout artists have far more success in the first round than in later rounds.
Williams also does a great job defending himself. He only absorbs 1.8 significant strikes per minute at a very strong 62% rate. His entire game is predicated on slowing it down on the feet while pressuring for takedowns. However, even if he cannot get a takedown, the threat of the takedown will likely open up his striking. This is what happened in his last fight, which was against Chase Sherman, in which he scored only one takedown but landed 70 significant strikes at a 42% rate.
Ultimately, Tafa has to land a knockout early to take this one. If he doesn’t, he’ll likely get ground down over three rounds with Williams en route to a comfortable victory.
Best UFC Williams-Tafa Bet & Pick: Williams -3.5 -120 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Model
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Nguyen-Errens bout: SuperBook has Nguyen at outright odds of just -150, below the true odds of -158 and far below the odds at FanDuel (-188) and BetMGM (-185), making a wager on Nguyen a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95 per month, a far better deal than the $150+ our competitors charge!
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Tools & Tips
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