UFC 299 has arrived, and with it comes a loaded card. Even some of the prelim fights, like Katlyn Cerminara–Maycee Barber stand out. With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Katlyn Cerminara-Maycee Barber pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Katlyn Cerminara-Maycee Barber Pick, Odds and Preview
Cerminara-Barber Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight
Cerminara: +160 | Barber: -220
Cerminara +3.5: -165 | Barber -3.5: +120
Over 2.5: -360 | Under 2.5: +260
Cerminara-Barber Pick & Preview
The penultimate fight of the prelims comes between Katlyn Cerminara (18-5) and Maycee Barber (13-2). Though Barber had a long stretch of fights that went to decisions, she showed knockout power in her early fights as well as her most recent performance. The books are heavily favoring the fight to go to decision, but I like the long odds for Barber to win by knockout.
Barber showed a new level of aggression in her most recent fight. Landing 81 strikes in just over a round and a half, she was able to win by knockout for the first time in six fights. The strategy made sense, given her prior stretch of decisions, as she dropped two of them — including a fight in which she landed just 16 significant strikes. She won in close split decisions in two of the other six.
The change paid off and enabled her to win convincingly. I expect her to come into this one with a similar game plan, especially since Barber talked about Cerminara being a gatekeeper to title shots.
With the respect Barber showed to Cerminara, she will likely look to win dominantly. Cerminara’s inability to land strikes consistently, connecting only 34% of the time, will do little to slow Barber down if she remains true to her previous plan.
Both fighters have a solid pace on the feet, with Cerminara landing 4.59 significant strikes per minute and Barber landing 4.60. However, Cerminara lands far more to the body and legs than does Barber.
In her 11 UFC fights, Barber only landed more than 10 significant strikes to the body and legs three times. Cerminara has only failed to land more than 10 significant strikes to the body and head four times in her 16 UFC bouts.
With such a heavy output towards the head, it’s no surprise Barber won by knockout five times in 11 bouts, including her Contender Series fight. She will likely have plenty of chances to finish Cerminara, who absorbs 4.41 significant strikes per minute. The implied probability for Barber to win by knockout sits around 22%, far lower than both her 45% knockout rate in the UFC and her 40% knockout rate in her professional career. With such a substantial difference, I like a small bet with a large payout.
Best Cerminara-Barber Bet & Pick: Barber to Win By KO/TKO/DQ +350 at DraftKings
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