Michael “Venom” Page is finally set to make his UFC debut in this weekend’s pay-per-view. He’ll line up against Kevin Holland for this one in a fight the oddsmakers don’t expect will go the distance. Let’s dive into to our Kevin Holland-Michael Page pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Kevin Holland-Michael Page Pick, Odds and Preview
Holland-Page Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Holland: -140 | Page: +110
Holland -3.5: +120 | Page +3.5: -165
Over 2.5: -175 | Under 2.5: +135
Holland-Page Pick & Preview
In his much-anticipated UFC debut, Michael “Venom” Page (21-2) takes on fan-favorite Kevin Holland (25-10). There are questions about how well MVP’s dominance will translate to the UFC, but his power is undeniable. I’m willing to ride with MVP to land a knockout with such long odds.
Making the jump to the UFC from Bellator hasn’t been easy of late. Just before Michael Chandler made his UFC debut, the win percentage for all Bellator champions in the UFC was around 43%. Chandler himself is below .500, with a 2-3 UFC record.
However, their collective record is deceiving and is more impressive upon investigation. Most of the time, former Bellator fighters are matched up with the best fighters in the division. Chandler himself only lost to Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier.
Holland is by no means an easy debut, but he has yet to fight for a belt and hasn’t transcended to the top of the rankings at this point in his career. All said, it’s hard to compare results in Bellator to those in the UFC, but from the information available, I don’t perceive it as being too significant for a fighter that is as dangerous as MVP is. For those that disagree, I would recommend holding off betting on this one.
One thing we can anticipate is that this fight will take place mostly on the feet. Holland only gets 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. In his fight with Stephen Thompson, Holland even had a gentleman’s agreement to keep the fight standing despite Thompson’s questionable grappling ability. MVP is also a striker through and through, with a deep background in kickboxing before his MMA career. In 23 fights, he only won by submission four times.
With long striking exchanges, each fighter will be in danger of suffering a knockout loss at nearly every moment. Holland and MVP land a similar amount of significant strikes, with the former landing 4.39 per minute and the latter landing 4.53 – though it’s difficult to verify these exact numbers.
If MVP lands a clean shot, Holland has almost no shot to avoid the KO. MVP’s power was on full display in his legendary KO of Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos, which sent Santos to the hospital with a noticeable dent in his skull. It’s this power that enabled MVP to win by knockout 10 times in his 19 Bellator fights (52%). With the implied probability that MVP lands a knockout sitting at only 18%, I’m willing to place a small bet for a big payout. Holland is no doubt tough, and it should be a great fight, but MVP is too dangerous to go against.
Best UFC Holland-Page Bet & Pick: Page to Win By KO/TKO/DQ +450 at DraftKings
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