The UFC world is obviously waiting on June’s thrilling UFC 303 card, which will bring us the return of Conor McGregor, but we’ve got a nice Fight Night card tonight to satiate us as we keep waiting. Let’s dive into our Khaos Williams-Carlston Harris pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Khaos Williams-Carlston Harris Pick, Odds and Preview
Williams-Harris Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Williams: -130 | Harris: +110
Williams -3.5: -105 | Harris +3.5: -125
Over 2.5: +135 | Under 2.5: -175
Williams-Harris Pick & Preview
The co-main event matches up Khaos Williams (14-3) with Carlston Harris (19-5). With another clash of styles, the outcome of the fight will depend largely on where it takes place. I like Williams in this one, as his pressure and takedown defense should allow him to take Harris well out of his comfort zone.
Harris has a low output compared to the rest of the Welterweight division. Only landing 2.93 significant strikes per minute, his main source of offense comes through grappling, where he lands 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Williams has the exact opposite style, as he lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute without a single takedown in his UFC career.
An interesting wrinkle in this clash of styles is the fact that neither fighter is particularly efficient at their offensive strength. Williams only lands 39% of his significant strikes, while Harris only lands a successful takedown 29% of the time. One of the biggest factors that could decide the fight is which fighter will be more patient if their main threat is stuffed by the other.
Even taking Williams’ inefficiency on the feet into account, I still give him the edge. One major factor is Williams’ 80% takedown defense. Given Harris’ inefficiency in the takedown, it’s possible he isn’t able to get a single takedown in the entire fight.
If the fight takes place largely on the feet, Williams’ pressure, even if inefficient, will likely give Harris some problems. Though Harris only absorbs 2.44 significant strikes per minute and defends respectably at a 53% rate, we have yet to see what he looks like defending on the back foot. The takedown threat in itself is a safety net for many grapplers when defending on the feet, but if that threat is largely nullified, their defensive numbers go down.
Williams’ inefficiency on the feet hasn’t translated to him taking the same amount of damage that other high-output low-efficiency strikers take. Williams absorbs 5.33 significant strikes per minute, which is less than he lands. If he lands more efficiently than average in this fight, Harris will be in real danger of the KO.
In all, I like Williams given his takedown defense against Harris’ inefficient grappling. If the fight stays on the feet throughout, I don’t see Harris being able to come out with a victory.
Best UFC Williams-Harris Bet & Pick: Williams Moneyline (-130)
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