The UFC rolls on toward the thrilling UFC 300 card with a few not-so-spectacular Fight Nights. Still, betting value abounds, and bettors looking to diversify during March Madness shouldn’t forget about the UFC. Let’s get into our Kurt Holobaugh-Trey Ogden pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Kurt Holobaugh-Trey Ogden Pick, Odds and Preview
Holobaugh–Ogden Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Holobaugh: +120 | Ogden: -150
Holobaugh +3.5: -170 | Ogden -3.5: +130
Over 2.5: -166 | Under 2.5: +130
Holobaugh–Ogden Pick & Preview
In the final prelim bout of the night, Kurt Holobaugh (21-7) takes on Trey Ogden (16-6). Neither fighter has established themselves in the UFC to this point. Nonetheless, I would lean toward Holobaugh given his experience and solid performance in his last showing — but I’m also not rushing to bet on this one.
Holobaugh has a much longer career than Ogden, but it hasn’t translated into much success in the Octagon. In his last performance, Holobaugh demonstrated better striking than we’ve seen from him in past fights, and his work on the ground to find the submission was surprisingly smooth.
If Holobaugh can keep up the aggression on the feet with similar efficiency, he could make Ogden’s life difficult. Ogden only lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 4.02 strikes he absorbs.
In his career, Ogden hasn’t landed a knockout yet, compared to 11 submissions (none of which came in the UFC). He will look to take the fight to the ground, but if he’s unable to do so, he doesn’t quite have the striking to pull ahead for a decision.
If Holobaugh hadn’t shown improvement on the ground in his last matchup, I would be more inclined to ride with Ogden. After all, Holobaugh only defends the takedown at a 50% clip. This would also be more concerning if Ogden were more efficient with the takedown, but he only succeeds on 16% of his attempts.
Ultimately, both fighters have glaring flaws in their game and could lose to anyone on any given night.
I would avoid this one, as there’s not much of an edge to be had on any market, but Holobaugh moneyline would be the best play in my view.
Best UFC Holobaugh–Ogden Bet & Pick: Holobaugh ML +120 at DraftKings
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