With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Leon Edwards-Colby Covington pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Pick, Odds and Preview
Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Edwards: -165 | Covington: +130
Edwards -5.5: +140 | Covington +5.5: -185
Over 4.5: -195 | Under 4.5: +150
Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Pick & Preview
The card ends with a second title defense opportunity for Leon Edwards (21-3) against the divisive Colby Covington (17-3).
With the implied odds of Edwards winning by decision sitting at 40%, DraftKings has failed to account fully for Edwards’ career proficiency in winning on the scorecards.
It’s hard to put Edwards’ first title fight with Kamaru Usman out of mind. Both his stunning head kick knockout and his inability to stuff Usman’s takedowns have transformed Edwards’ persona from a boring counter-striker who beat his opponents on the cards to an exciting knockout artist with little to no grappling ability.
In reality, neither is the full truth, but the evidence from Edwards’ career suggests the former is far closer to reality than the latter.
In his UFC fights, Edwards has procured a decision victory 60 percent of the time with nine in 15 tries.
These numbers don’t tell the full story of Edwards’ fights, as one of his TKO victories came with just a second left in a bout he was likely to win by decision.
Two of his remaining three finishes (one via submission and one via knockout) came in the final two minutes of the fight. Essentially, all of Edward’s fights have trended heavily toward decisions, save for miraculous last-second finishes.
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His counterpart, Covington, is no stranger to decision outcomes. Covington has gone the distance in eight of his 15 UFC fights, with five of the remaining seven finishes coming in the last round of the fight. His cardio and wrestle-heavy approach lends itself well to a longer fight, particularly against the slower-paced Edwards, who only throws around six significant strikes per minute.
Covington’s relentless wrestling, which yields about four takedowns every 15 minutes, combined with Edwards’ struggles against Usman in their first fight, has led some to think this is a stylistically bad matchup for Edwards. However, in his career, Edwards has shown solid takedown defense, sporting a success rate of 69%. In his rematch with Usman, the combination of effective counter-striking and leg kicks to keep the distance helped him stuff eleven of Usman’s 15 attempts.
Interestingly, the counter-heavy method of striking is the same tactic Usman used to neutralize Covington’s wrestling in the rematch. If Edwards can translate this strategy to keep the fight on the feet, he stands a great chance of withstanding Covington’s relatively weaker striking.
Best UFC Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Pick: Leon Edwards to Win by Decision +150 at DraftKings
