With UFC fight night looming, it’s time to make our Lerone Murphy-Josh Culibao prediction and pick by using the latest odds and industry-leading tools.
Lerone Murphy will battle Josh Culibao as a -155 favorite. After dropping his UFC debut to Zubaira Tukhugov, Murphy has rattled off four straight wins, most recently defeating Gabriel Santos in March of this year. On the other side, Culibao has also begun an impressive three-fight winning streak. Last time out, he submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan in February.
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Lerone Murphy-Josh Culibao Pick, Prediction and Odds
Lerone Murphy-Josh Culibao Odds
Lerone Murphy: -155 | Josh Culibao: +130
Murphy comes primarily from a striking background, but he continues to add facets into his game. He averages 3.58 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.64. On the ground, he lands 0.83 takedowns per bout but only defends them at 43%. With that said, he has shown the ability to work back to his feet. Santos and Makwan Amirkhani both landed five takedowns against Murphy, but both struggled to control him. Of his 12 wins, Murphy has seven knockouts and no submissions.
Like Murphy, Culibao has also added components to his game over the years. He lands 2.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.13. Most of this negative differential came from a loss to Jalin Turner. Since then, Culibao has been far more competitive on the feet. On the ground, he has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, but he defends them at 82%. This fight looks more likely to play out on the feet, and to date, Culibao has five knockouts and one submission on his pro record.
This is an evenly matched fight, and both fighters will look to stand and trade. Neither has a significant advantage in their strength of schedule, and both fighters are in the prime of their careers. With Murphy winning a questionable decision in his last time out, Culibao likely has some value in the betting markets. That said, the confidence interval will be low.
