With UFC 300 and 301 in the rear-view mirror, we’re in a bit of an MMA lull. This weekend’s Fight Night leads into an off weekend before a UFC 302 card that promises fireworks with Dustin Poirier in the main event. Let’s get into our Luana Pinheiro-Angela Hill pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Luana Pinheiro-Angela Hill Pick, Odds and Preview
Pinheiro-Hill Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight
Pinheiro: +124| Hill: -148
Pinheiro +3.5: -225 | Hill -3.5: +165
Over 2.5: -445 | Under 1.5: +310
Pinheiro-Hill Pick & Preview
The first fight on the main card matches up Luana Pinheiro (11-2) with veteran journeywoman Angela Hill (16-13). This fight presents both a classic stylistic matchup between a grappler and striker, as well as a prospect against an established ranked vet.
Pinheiro’s last performance revealed real weaknesses in her striking game that are ripe for Hill to exploit. Hill’s bread and butter is her stand up. A former world championship kickboxer, Hill has both the experience and the technical ability to make it a long night for Pinheiro if the fight remains on the feet.
On the flip side, Pinheiro is an accomplished judoka who has translated her grappling well in her early UFC career. Nonetheless, her last two fights showed that she has much to improve on with her striking, as she was outstruck in each (44-61 and 55-87) with the latter ending in a KO.
This fight will most likely depend on where the majority of the fight takes place. If Pinheiro is able to drag hill to the ground consistently, she will likely have the edge. However, if Hill can stop Pinheiro’s takedowns, she will be able to pick Pinheiro apart with little resistance.
The numbers related to the takedown battle seem to favor Hill over Pinheiro. Hill, despite her training in kickboxing, sports a solid 75% takedown defense rate. It can be difficult to project how well this translates outside of the classic wrestling takedowns to judo throws and trips, but Pinheiro’s inefficiency with the takedown should give Hill some confidence coming into this fight. While Pinheiro lands a solid 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, she only does so on 40% efficiency.
Worse yet, in her last two fights, she was only able to land one takedown on 11 attempts. Her last opponent, Amanda Ribas, is difficult for everyone to takedown, as she sports an 85% takedown defense rate, but going 0/5 against Michelle Waterson-Gomez who holds a 70% takedown defense rate is a difficult look for a grappling-dependent fighter.
On the feet, the gap between the fighters is far wider. One red flag is that Pinheiro absorbs more significant strikes per minute (4.38) than she lands (3.89). She maintains a solid strike defense rate at 62%, but she’s inefficient landing her own offense at 41%. This opens her up to taking damage even if she’s generally successful at defending her opponent’s strikes.
Hill, on the other hand, lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 4.94. She defends herself well with a 61% strike defense rate, but her 50% rate in landing her own offense will be the biggest gulf between her and Pinheiro. Where Pinheiro may land a nice shot or two in an exchange, Hill will have an easier time landing combinations to put her ahead on the scorecards and draw herself closer to landing a knockout.
This fight will take place largely on the feet and will ride with Hill. I also like laddering the moneyline with a small money bet on Hill to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
Best UFC Pinheiro-Hill Bet & Pick: Hill Moneyline (-148)
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