With UFC fight night looming, it’s time to make our Marc Diakiese-Joel Alvarez prediction and pick by using the latest odds and industry-leading tools.
Joel Alvarez makes his return to the Octagon after over a year away. He most recently fought Arman Tsarukyan and lost via knockout. Now he will face Marc Diakiese as a -175 favorite. Diakiese also dropped his most recent bout against Michael Johnson via decision.
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Marc Diakiese-Joel Alvarez Pogues Pick, Prediction and Odds
Marc Diakiese-Joel Alvarez Odds
Marc Diakiese: +145 | Joel Alvarez: -175
Alvarez has one of the stranger profiles on the UFC roster. He lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.68. Alvarez has never landed a takedown in his six UFC fights, but 16 of his 19 professional wins have come via submission. Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and has allowed six takedowns in his career. Oftentimes, he will allow the takedowns to work his submission games.
On the other side, Diakiese brings a well-rounded skill set. He lands 2.73 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.63. Diakiese also averages 3.33 takedowns per bout and 67% takedown defense. He has struggled to make the jump beyond beating the entry-level talent of the UFC, which makes for a tough test against Alvarez. Diakiese has also been submitted twice, which works right into the hands of Alvarez.
Diakiese’s wrestling is the perfect matchup for Alvarez’s submission game. The layoff for Alvarez is a concern, but Diakiese has frequently struggled against better competition within the division. For that reason, backing Alvarez at -175 is the call.
