The UFC makes its return this weekend with a solid Fight Night card. Let’s get into our Matheus Nicolau-Alex Perez pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Matheus Nicolau-Alex Perez Pick, Odds and Preview
Nicolau–Perez Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Nicolau: -185 | Perez: +140
Nicolau -5.5: -105 | Perez +5.5: -125
Over 4.5: +105 | Under 4.5: -145
Nicolau-Perez Pick & Preview
The main event pairs two top-level grapplers as Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) sets to square off against Alex Perez (24-8). Despite being a comfortable favorite, Nicolau’s history of going to razor-thin decisions gives an edge to Perez, who looks to break a three-fight skid.
Perez has had a tough run in his past few fights. He fought for the belt against Deiveson Figueiredo and was submitted. In his next fight, he took on the current champ and was submitted again. Instead of getting a bounce-back fight, he was given undefeated prospect Muhammad Mokaev and was edged out in a close decision.
It’s hard to say that Nicolau isn’t on the same level as Mokaev, but Perez can certainly be forgiven for losing to Figgy and Pantoja, as very few fighters in the UFC have been able to beat either. Even in a loss, Perez came away stuffing eighteen of Mokaev’s takedown attempts and became only the second fighter in the UFC to avoid succumbing to a submission against him.
This is important because Nicolau’s game is predicated on the takedown. In his nine UFC bouts, he has failed to get a single takedown in four. In those four, he went 2-2, with one win coming by split decision and one coming in a 29-28 decision swung by a knockdown. While the two losses came by quick knockouts where he had little time to get a takedown, the wins concern me more.
In the five fights in which he has at least one takedown, he went 5-0. Of the three decision victories, two were razor-thin, with the takedowns likely swinging the balance of the fight. These are still impressive victories, but a fighter that can neutralize Nicolau’s grappling has a great chance of edging him out on the scorecards.
Outside of the Mokaev fight, Perez has solid takedown defense. He stuffs 82% of his opponent’s takedown defense, which could frustrate Nicolau’s game plan. On the feet, Nicolau is too selective to win a decision comfortably. He only lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14.
Nicolau was outstruck by his opponents in five of his nine UFC bouts. While he won three of these by decision, he can’t depend on losing the striking battle and taking the fight, particularly as a -185 favorite.
Perez, on the other hand, displays controlled aggression in his fights. He lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14, for a delta of almost one significant strike per minute. If this holds, the disparity in a five-round fight would be 25 significant strikes overall, which would be enough to lead to a comfortable decision victory, all else equal.
Without much of a chance for a Nicolau finish, I like Perez.
Best UFC Nicolau-Perez Bet & Pick: Perez ML +140 at DraftKings
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