With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Matt Schnell-Steve Erceg pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Matt Schnell-Steve Erceg Pick, Odds and Preview
Matt Schnell-Steve Erceg Odds
Anders-Pickett Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Schnell: +315 | Erceg: -480
Schnell +3.5: +195 | Erceg -3.5: -270
Over 1.5: -140| Under 1.5: +110
Matt Schnell-Steve Erceg Pick & Preview
In the first fight of the main card, Matt Schnell (16-7) takes on Steve Erceg (11-1).
It looks like the oddsmakers misevaluated Erceg’s style, as the odds for him to win by knockout are higher than for him to win by submission.
Given this oversight, I like the long odds of Erceg by submission.
Schnell is a worthy grappler, gaining three of his six UFC victories by submission.
However, he is not infallible, as he fell victim to a submission against Brandon Royval, losing to a guillotine choke.
He will have his hands full against Erceg, who won seven of his twelve professional fights by submission.
While he hasn’t replicated the same success since entering the UFC, only winning by decision in his two bouts, Erceg should have plenty of opportunities to get back on the submission train against Schnell.
With a paltry 46% takedown defense rate, Schnell gives his opponents plenty of opportunities on the ground.
It’s fair to say that Schnell may not defend the takedown as a strategic choice, hoping to induce his opponents into an area where he can submit them. He won’t want to try this strategy against Erceg, who sports a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a functional grappler in MMA.
With Erceg landing around two takedowns per 15 minutes, he will have some opportunities to find a submission. Expect Erceg to boost his aggression when it comes to grappling given Schnell’s porous takedown defense.
Best Matt Schnell-Steve Erceg pick: Erceg to Win by Submission +200 at DraftKings
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