Let’s get into our Michel Pereira-Ihor Potieria pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Michel Pereira-Ihor Potieria Pick, Odds and Preview
Pereira-Potieria Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Pereira: -700 | Potieria: +410
Pereira -3.5: -400 | Potieria +3.5: +270
Over 1.5: +124 | Under 1.5: -160
Pereira-Potieria Pick & Preview
Another fight with lopsided odds matches Michel Pereira (30-11) with Ihor Potieria (20-5). I have Pereira winning this comfortably, but because there isn’t value in playing the -725 line, there are better bets to make elsewhere.
Luckily, the books anticipate a quick finish, stacking the odds comfortably in the favor of the under. Given that Pereira isn’t well-known for quick finishes, I am riding with the over in this one.
Pereira finished his last two fights in uncharacteristically quick fashion, beating his opponents in just over a minute each time. Bettors shouldn’t fall too in love with the idea that Pereira is going to walk into the cage and finish Potieria in the same way.
Before his two quick finishes, Pereira’s previous seven fights all went into the third round. Overall, seven of Pereira’s 10 UFC bouts went over the halfway point of the third round. This helps to explain his average fight time sitting at 10 minutes and 40 seconds.
Potieria’s average fight time is shorter than Pereira’s at seven minutes and eight seconds. Though this falls just short of the seven minutes and 30 seconds needed for the over to hit, three of Potieria’s six fights went over the halfway mark of the first round. He also tends to drag further into the fight in his losses, as two of his three losses went over, compared to one of his three wins.
While Potieria’s short career makes it hard to trust how legitimate this data is, his recent performance against Robert Bryczek should give bettors hope that he can hang in there long enough against Pereira for the over to hit, even if he ultimately doesn’t prevail. Potieria looked confident and smooth on the feet, which could keep it a close fight for the earlier rounds.
Combined, 10 of their 16 fights went over 1.5 rounds (63%). With the implied probability for the over sitting at around 45%, there is too big an edge here to not play it. It’s possible Pereira has turned himself into a completely new fighter overnight, but I’m willing to take the chance that he hasn’t and the last two finishes were outliers.
Best UFC Pereira-Potieria Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 (+154 at DraftKings)
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