Nasrat Haqparast-Jamie Mullarkey Odds and Pick

Using the latest UFC Fight Night odds, it’s time to provide the most recent Nasrat Haqparast-Jamie Mullarkey odds and give out our pick. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.

Let’s start with the good: Haqparast and Mullarkey both land a high rate of significant strikes per minute, at 5.73 and 4.46, respectively. Each fighter also has a high capacity to absorb strikes, with Haqparast eating 5.26 significant strikes per minute, and Mullarkey absorbing 4.41 strikes per minute. It is peculiar, however, that with the number of shots each fighter gives and takes, they have only been able to account for three knockout wins in their combined twenty UFC fights, for a rate of 15%. When you account for the fighters’ three combined knockout losses and zero submission wins or losses, the percentage of their fights that have gone the distance stands at 70%.

It may be easy to chalk this up to bad luck or a statistical anomaly. After all, Haqparast has amassed five knockdowns in eleven fights, only resulting in one knockout victory. However, some of this can be accounted for in each fighter’s tendency to remain measured without aggressively seeking an end to the fight. On Haqparast’s five knockdowns, for example, he has only managed to land fifteen combined significant strikes, good for just three per knockdown. Without one-punch knockout power, the ability to swarm an opponent on the ground is vital to stopping the fight. Considering that Haqparast procures less than half of a takedown every fifteen minutes of fight time, his only real chance to win a fight before the final bell is to land meaningful shots on the ground, an ability he has not shown consistently.

Mullarkey’s strategy tends to center more on a higher volume of leg kicks than on strictly targeting the head. For example, Mullarkey’s last fight saw him land thirty-eight significant strikes to the head relative to thirty-seven to the legs. These are certainly meaningful shots, and they may even allow Mullarkey to target the head as his opponent’s mobility becomes limited, but they won’t cause knockouts. The rate at which he lands significant strikes per minute that have the actual potential to knock an opponent down or out is much lower. Further, Mullarkey doesn’t tend to press for stoppages as other fighters might. While he has been able to procure 2.46 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time, he has never even attempted a submission. To stop Haqparast early, Mullarkey will need to employ a far more aggressive approach than we’ve seen from him before.

Oddsmakers have attempted to account for both fighters’ inability to end things early by placing the odds for a decision victory at -190, but, given each fighter’s capacity for grinding out the clock, there remains an edge on that play despite the short odds. With implied odds that the fight goes to decision sitting at around 65%, the bookmakers have given bettors an edge unless Mullarkey or Haqparast channel a strategy or ability that they have not shown in their respective stints in the UFC. Nonetheless, using the latest Nasrat Haqparast-Jamie Mullarkey odds, let’s get to our final pick.

Nasrat Haqparast-Jamie Mullarkey Pick: Exact Method of Victory Decision -190 at DraftKings