There’s a loaded card on tap for UFC 302 tonight, and if you’re looking to get some action down on the pay-per-view card, we’ve got plenty of picks for you to tail. Let’s get into our Niko Price-Alex Morono pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Niko Price-Alex Morono Pick, Odds and Preview
Price-Morono Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Price: +200 | Morono: -280
Price +3.5: +115 | Morono -3.5: -150
Over 2.5: +120 | Under 2.5: -150
Price-Morono Pick & Preview
Continuing the main card, veterans Niko Price (15-7) and Alex Morono (24-9) square off in a solid Welterweight matchup. The books seem to anticipate a finish a bit too highly. As such, I’m riding with the over, given Morono’s penchant for going late into the fight.
Morono has been tough to put away throughout his career. In 20 fights, his opponents managed to stop him only twice. Yet, what he has in toughness, he lacks in pure knockout power, as he only has two knockouts to his name.
Both of these contribute to his long average fight length, sitting just below 12 minutes. While this is under the 2.5 rounds on average, it’s skewed lower by a few shorter than average fights. Overall, 14 of Morono’s 20 fights went over 2.5 rounds.
However, it takes two to tango, and Price is susceptible to shorter fights. With an average fight time sitting just over eight minutes, Price has a tendency to win or lose in spectacular fashion.
Nevertheless, his approach seems to have changed of late, as his only five fights to go over 2.5 rounds came in his last six trips to the Octagon.
In total, 19 of their combined 36 fights went over 2.5 rounds for a rate of 53%. While they aren’t slow-paced fighters by any means, they don’t throw a particularly high output for Welterweight. Morono lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute, while Price lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute.
Morono’s shot dispersion makes his lack of knockout victories somewhat surprising. He targets the head on 80% of his strikes compared to Price’s 59%. The fact that Price is a little looser with his defense shouldn’t worry over bettors, as Morono hasn’t shown any ability to consistently take advantage of this.
It doesn’t make much sense to have the over pegged in the plus-money with Morono favored as comfortably as they do. However, I won’t complain and will gladly play the over with such a nice edge.
Best UFC Price-Morono Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +120 at DraftKings
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