UFC 300 may still be a few weeks away, but we’ve got a handful of decent fight night cards to tide us over until the huge pay-per-view event. Let’s get into our Ovince Saint Preux-Kennedy Nzechukwu pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Ovince Saint-Preux-Kennedy Nzechukwu Pick, Odds and Preview
Saint Preux–Nzechukwu Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Saint Preux: +450 | Nzechukwu: -800
Saint Preux +3.5: +300 | Nzechukwu -3.5: -450
Over 1.5: +120 | Under 1.5: -150
Saint Preux–Nzechukwu Pick & Preview
Veteran Ovince Saint Preux (26-17) takes on the dangerous and well-rounded Kennedy Nzechukwu in the fourth fight on the main card. The moneyline odds are heavily slanted in favor of Nzechukwu, who should be favored, but I never like to overlook the experience a fighter like OSP brings to the table.
Instead of picking a fighter, there is a nice edge on the over, as the oddsmakers anticipate this one ending earlier than normal for each fighter.
Usually when the odds are longer for the over than for the under, at least one of the fighters has a below-average fight time. However, this isn’t the case in this one. Over their 36 combined UFC fights, OSP’s average fight time is 9:30 while Nzechukwu’s average is 9:10.
The books are likely taking each fighter’s finish rate into account when setting the line for the under. The issue with simply looking at their ability to finish fights is that it doesn’t take into account their slower starts.
For example, 18 of OSP’s 26 UFC fights came before the final bell, but 21 of his 26 fights went past the halfway point of the second round (81%). Nzechukwu is similar, as eight of his 10 UFC fights ended in a finish, but six of them went over 1.5 rounds (60%).
It makes sense that OSP’s fights tend to last into the second and third rounds. His pace on the feet is glacial, landing just 2.71 significant strikes per minute. His grappling is solid, but he only averages 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
Nzechukwu’s numbers are far higher on the feet, landing 4.86 significant strikes per minute, but OSP’s experience should help him slow the fight down to the pace he normally looks for.
Overall, the hit rate on the over for each of these fighters is incredibly high. It may well hang in the balance for each of the 7:30 that must elapse for the bet to hit, but based on each of these fighters’ track records, it’s a risk well worth taking with the line in the plus-money.
Best UFC Saint Preux–Nzechukwu Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 +120 at DraftKings
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