Let’s get into our Paul Craig-Caio Borralho pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Paul Craig-Caio Borralho Pick, Odds and Preview
Craig-Borralho Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Shore: +145 | Brito: -195
Shore +3.5: -105 | Brito -3.5: -125
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Craig-Borralho Pick & Preview
To kick off the main card, Paul Craig (17-7-1) faces Caio Borralho (15-1) in the first of three fights that are expected to be very one-sided. Though Borralho should win the bout, there is almost no value in playing the -725 moneyline in his favor.
The only place to potentially find value is in the under. However, the edge is fairly slim, and with limited options, it may be a better idea to sit this one out.
Craig’s average fight length is relatively short, sitting at just eight minutes long. On the other hand Borralho’s fights tend to drag longer, as six of his seven UFC bouts, including his two on the Contender Series, went to the cards. With such heavy odds in Borallho’s favor, it may appear that the over is the better play in this one.
However, part of Craig’s short fight time is his propensity to take risks. Sometimes they pay off and he scores a quick victory, but other times they don’t and he finds himself deep in a submission or on the mat eating heavy shots before the ref calls the fight.
A miscalculated risk could see the fight end uncharacteristically quick for Borralho. Craig also has a higher tendency to go under in his losses than in his wins.
Nine of Craig’s 17 UFC bouts went under 1.5 rounds (53%). Four of those came in Craig’s seven losses (57%). With such high odds in Borralho’s favor, this bodes well for the under.
In their combined 24 fights, 10 went under 1.5 rounds for a rate of 42%. This gives a slight edge over the line, which is set at an implied probability of around 38%.
Though Craig’s fights do much of the heavy lifting, his propensity to lose quicker than he wins could help give a bigger edge than is set out by the raw numbers.
Given the lopsided nature of this one, I don’t see much value in playing anything in this fight, but for those that feel the need to, riding the under appears to be the best option.
Best UFC Craig-Borralho Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (+154 at DraftKings)
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