It’s (almost) time for UFC 299. The pay-per-view action will get underway with a bantamweight bout between Song Yadong and Petr Yan, and let’s dive straight into to our Petr Yan-Song Yadong pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Petr Yan-Song Yadong Pick, Odds and Preview
Yan–Yadong Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Yan: -130 | Yadong: +105
Yan -3.5: +150 | Yadong +3.5: -200
Over 2.5: -298 | Under 2.5: +220
Yan–Yadong Pick & Preview
The first fight of the main card comes between former champion Petr Yan (16-5) and Song Yadong (21-7-1). While Yadong showed a high level of skill in his last few fights, Yan is on another level, which isn’t well accounted for in his price to win this one outright.
Yan fought a murderer’s row of champions and contenders in his last five fights, taking on former champion Aljamain Sterling twice, current champ Sean O’Malley once, Corey Sandhagen and Merab Dvalishvili.
While he only won once, beating Sandhagen by decision, people shouldn’t look at this run as an indication that Yan is on the back nine of his career.
Yadong certainly shouldn’t overlook Yan, particularly as he doesn’t have a win against someone on Yan’s level. Yadong’s only wins against currently ranked opponents came against No. 15 Ricky Simon and Marlon Vera.
However, his win against Vera came nearly four years ago and before Vera went on a 6-2 run in the UFC. His only other fight against a currently ranked opponent was against Corey Sandhagen, which he lost handily, getting outstruck by 40 before suffering a KO.
When it comes to this fight, most of it will likely occur on the feet. Yadong doesn’t seek the takedown often, only attaining 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Yan can use the takedown more effectively than Yadong, as he secures 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 53% success rate, but he tends to keep the fight standing given his striking prowess.
On the feet, Yan has an edge in the raw numbers. He lands a solid 5.03 significant strikes per minute at a 53% rate. This compares favorably to Yadong’s 4.38 significant strikes per minute at a success rate of 42%. Both fighters do well to defend themselves, with Yan stifling his opponents 59% of the time and Yadong defending at a 57% clip.
Overall, with Yan’s edge in experience, striking and grappling, I have him winning with relative ease. I would see an edge playing him at least until the line moves to -150 and perhaps beyond. With it sitting at -130, backing Yan to win outright is the easy choice.
Best Yan–Yadong Bet & Pick: Yan ML -130 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Model
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