With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira Pick, Odds and Preview
Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Hawes: +110 | Ferreira : -140
Hawes: +3.5: -105 | Ferreira: -3.5: -125
Over 1.5: +190 | Under 1.5: -250
Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira Pick & Preview
The middleweight scrap between Phil Hawes (12-5) and Brunno Ferreira (10-1) could see fireworks from either fighter. However, despite their generally high output, strategic changes from both sides may cause the fight to drag on for longer than anticipated by the books.
Each fighter experienced brutal knockouts in their most recent bouts.
Hawes got put out in his last two fights, making three of his last four knockout losses. Ferreira got caught early in his last fight, which marked his first professional loss.
Both Ferreira and Hawes need to make adjustments to avoid the early KO again, particularly as each of them lands more than five and a half significant strikes per minute.
Ferreira’s camp mentioned the need to adjust coming into the fight: they hinted at adjustments the team made to add weapons to Ferreira’s arsenal and claimed they expect him to show his acumen in Judo.
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For Hawes’ part, it would also make sense for him to adjust to a grappling-heavy approach, especially since he wrestled in college. With two knockout wins and three knockout losses, keeping the fight standing is strategically a feast-or-famine proposition for Hawes. On the other hand, Hawes won both of his fights that went the distance, amassing over eleven minutes and five and a half minutes of control time in each respective decision. Forcing Ferreira to defend the takedown, especially when none of his previous opponents pressured him with grappling, adds a wrinkle that may mitigate the knockout threat and open up opportunities for Hawes on the feet.
In sum, three of the fighters’ eight combined UFC fights went past the halfway point of round two for a rate of 37%. Three of the five fights that ended in the first round did so in its final minute. These one-shot fight-enders at the end of rounds can be hard to rely on consistently when predicting the length of the fight, and they’re likely skewing the data lower than it deserves to be. Given that the implied odds of the over 1.5 rounds line sits at 34%, and the fact these fighters may make strategic adjustments, the edge on this line could well exceed the existing 3% difference.
Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira Pick: Total Rounds Over 1.5 +190 at DraftKings
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