The loaded card we have in store for UFC 302 will get underway with a battle between Randy Brown and Elizeu Saleski Dos Santos, also known as Capoeira. Let’s get into our Randy Brown-Elizeu Saleski Dos Santos pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Randy Brown-Elizeu Saleski Dos Santos Pick, Odds and Preview
Brown–Dos Santos Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Almeida: -115 | Kopylov: -110
Almeida +3.5: -180 | Kopylov -3.5: +135
Over 2.5: +105 | Under 2.5: -135
Brown–Dos Santos Pick & Preview
The odds comfortably favor Randy Brown (18-5) coming into his bout against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1). While a draw in his last fight might have cooled bettors on riding with Capoeira, his recent wins against Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Benoit Saint Denis, the latter of which came in dominant fashion, should give bettors hope that he can pull out an underdog victory.
There is very little daylight between these two in terms of their numbers, so riding with Capoiera in what should be a toss-up seems like the safest play here.
Neither Brown nor Capoeira have much interest in taking the fight to the ground. Brown only lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time.
Capoeira takes his opponents down at an even lower rate, only doing so 0.45 times per fight. As such, this one will likely be decided on the feet.
The books seem to think Brown has a clear edge in this respect, but I don’t know how sound that is. Taking into account the eye test first, Capoeira destroyed Benoit Saint Denis on the feet, the only fighter to do so in BSD’s young career.
Looking deeper into the numbers, Brown’s and Capoeira’s striking numbers are shockingly similar.
Capoeira lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute. This slightly outpaces Brown, who lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute. However, Brown is slightly more efficient, landing 46% of the time, compared to Capoeira’s 42% success rate.
The similarities don’t stop there, as their shot dispersal is almost identical as well. Brown lands 62% of his strikes to the head, with 20% going to the body and 18% going to the legs. Capoeira lands slightly lower to the head at 60%, with 24% going to the body and 16% going to the legs.
Capoeira works the clinch slightly more with 21% of his strikes coming in the clinch compared to Brown’s 17%. Nonetheless, these slight differences aren’t enough to definitively tip the fight one way or another.
In all, this one should probably be a pick ‘em. However, the books have the odds stacked against Capoiera despite how even he and Brown are. I’m riding with Capoeira’s moneyline in a fight that should be a great kickoff to the main card.
Best UFC Brown–Dos Santos Bet & Pick: Dos Santos Moneyline +140 at DraftKings
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