With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Renato Moicano-Drew Dober pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Renato Moicano-Drew Dober Pick, Odds and Preview
Renato Moicano-Drew Dober Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Moicano: -195 | Dober: +145
Moicano -3.5: -140 | Dober +3.5: +105
Over 1.5: +100 | Under 1.5: -130
Renato Moicano-Drew Dober Pick & Preview
In the penultimate fight of the night, veterans Renato Moicano (17-5-1) and Drew Dober (27-12) will match up in a stylistic clash that could go either way.
Buying Dober to win by knockout is a solid play in this one due to Dober’s knockout ability and Moicano’s history of getting knocked out.
It seems that this bout could only end one of two ways: either Dober knocks out Moicano or Moicano submits Dober. Not only are Dober and Moicano relatively strong in their respective martial arts, but they are relatively weak at defending against the other’s strengths.
For example, Moicano submitted six of his opponents in his nine UFC wins, while Dober was submitted four times in his eight losses. On the flip side, Dober won by knockout in nine of his thirteen victories in the UFC, with Moicano suffering knockouts in three of his five losses.
With such a disparity in each of the fighters’ relative strengths and weaknesses, it will likely come down to whether Dober can keep the fight standing. There are certainly holes in Dober’s takedown defense for Moicano to exploit. He only defends takedowns at a 56% clip, which can put him in danger quickly against Moicano.
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However, the numbers don’t tell the entire story. In his last five fights, Dober has only been taken down three times. Further, in his 21 decisive UFC bouts, he was taken down more than twice in only four of them, with one of these occasions being against lightweight champ Islam Makhachev.
Moicano hasn’t produced takedowns at a high rate. He only procures 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time and only attempts around four takedowns per bout — although some of this stems from the fact many of his opponents weren’t high-output wrestlers. Still, Moicano will need to raise these numbers to give himself the best opportunity to submit Dober, as part of Dober’s takedown defense is to win the fight by knockout before the takedown becomes a problem.
With around 42% of Dober’s UFC fights ending in a knockout win — and 60% of Moicano’s losses coming by knockout — the +225 for Dober to win by KO/TKO/DQ leaves a nice edge for bettors willing to ride with the underdog.
Renato Moicano-Drew Dober Pick: Dober by KO/TKO/DQ +225 at DraftKings
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