With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Pick, Odds and Preview
Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Simón: -195 | Bautista : +145
Simón: -3.5: +100 | Bautista: +3.5: -130
Over 2.5: -195 | Under 2.5: +150
Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Pick & Preview
In what could be a grappling-heavy affair, Ricky Simón (20-4) matches up with fellow bantamweight Mario Bautista (13-2) with a possible top-ten division ranking on the line for the winner.
Bautista comes into this bout on a tear, winning his last five fights, which brought his UFC record to an impressive 7-2. While Simón’s KO loss against Song Yadong cooled his recent success slightly, Simón is no less dangerous, winning his five fights before the loss.
With both fighters entering in good form, I expect them to take a measured approach early. However, the -150 odds for this fight to end in a decision do not comport with each fighter’s demonstrated ability to end the fight before the final bell.
Only nine of these fighters’ combined 20 fights resulted in a decision, good for a rate of 45%. Given that this sits well below the implied odds of 60%, there is certainly an edge on a different method of victory.
The central question is whether there is an edge to betting on KO/TKO or submission — or whether an edge exists for both.
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Bautista is a high-output fighter on the feet, landing 5.32 significant strikes per minute. However, he claimed only one knockout in his first nine UFC fights and only three in his fifteen professional fights. Paired with Simón’s relatively low striking output — he lands just 3.01 significant strikes per minute — it’s difficult to imagine this one ending in a knockout. Indeed, only two of their twenty combined fights (10%) resulted in a knockout victory for either fighter. Even taking KO losses into account, only 25% of their fights have ended in a KO/TKO, sitting below the implied odds set by the bookmakers at around 29% (+250).
Where the bookmakers have most mispriced this market, based on the fighters’ results to this point in their career, is the submission victory line. You’ll find it trading at +300 on DraftKings. Both fighters procure takedowns at a high rate, with Bautista securing 2.72 takedowns in fifteen minutes of fight time and Simón getting a whopping 5.84 takedowns per fifteen minutes. It seems clear that the fight will find its way to the ground early and often, barring an inexplicable strategic change by either fighter.
Both Bautista and Simón know what to do when they get to the ground, and they each employ an aggressive, fight-ending mentality while there, instead of relying on control time to win on the cards. Of their twenty combined fights, Bautista and Simón amassed six submission victories. Bautista is not perfect on the ground, as he fell victim to an armbar against Corey Sandhagen. The rate at which Bautista and Simón’s fights ended in submission sits at 35%. Since the implied odds for submission clock in at 25%, this line offers an edge for bettors looking for a higher-risk wager.
Ricky Simon-Mario Bautista Pick: Exact Method of Victory – Submission +300 at DraftKings
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