With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Robert Whittaker-Paulo Costa pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Robert Whittaker-Paulo Costa Pick, Odds and Preview
Robert Whittaker-Paulo Costa Odds
UFC 298 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Whittaker: -250 | Costa: +180
Whittaker -3.5: -120 | Costa +3.5: -110
Over 2.5: -160 | Under 2.5: +124
Robert Whittaker-Paulo Costa Pick & Preview
The penultimate fight of the night matches one of the best Middleweights of the last decade, Robert Whittaker (25-7) with Paulo Costa (14-2).
Given the heavy odds in favor of Whittaker, and his reputation for fighting to decision, there is a slight edge to be found on betting the under 2.5 rounds. This is especially true with the amount of damage Costa takes in most of his fights.
It’s unfortunate that people still tend to overlook Whittaker as one of the best fighters on the current UFC roster. Sitting outside the top fifteen in the pound-for-pound rankings, he only lost three times in the past decade, twice to Israel Adesanya and once to Dricus Du Plessis. Perhaps part of the reason he still seems to go under the radar is because some fans believe he’s a boring fighter.
His wrestle-oriented style mixed with a somewhat-low striking output can tend to drag fights out longer, which is part of the reason he went to decision twelve times in his twenty UFC fights. Even with his low output, he still has incredible power in his hands – hence his nickname, Bobby Knuckles.
He will have plenty of opportunities to land big shots against Costa. In his time in the UFC, Costa absorbed an astounding 6.38 significant strikes per minute, defending at only a 42% rate. It’s a trade-off worth making against a lot of fighters, as Costa lands 6.50 significant strikes in his own right. However, Whittaker is on a different level, and Costa could put himself in danger with this approach. If Costa comes out aggressive in the same way this fight, it will likely draw Whittaker into a slightly faster pace than he normally fights at.
If Costa is to pull of the upset, it will most likely come from a knockout, as four of his six wins came via KO/TKO. In total, only three of Costa’s eight fights went to the bell, and though he won two of these, neither came against an opponent of Whittaker’s caliber.
Combined, Whittaker’s and Costa’s fights in the UFC went under two and a half rounds thirteen times in twenty-eight fights, for a rate of 46%. With implied odds for the over sitting at around 40%, there is an edge in playing the under. This is especially true with Costa’s aggression.
Best Robert Whittaker-Paulo Costa Pick: Under 2.5, +124 at DraftKings.
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