After a thrilling UFC 300 card to weeks ago, we’re back with another UFC Fight Night this weekend. Let’s get into our Ryan Spann-Bogdan Guskov pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Ryan Spann-Bogdan Guskov Pick, Odds and Preview
Spann–Guskov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Spann: -185 | Guskov: +140
Spann -3.5: -155 | Guskov +3.5: +120
Over 1.5: +210 | Under 1.5: -280
Spann–Guskov Pick & Preview
The night’s penultimate fight matches up veteran Ryan Spann (21-9) with newcomer Bogdan Guskov (15-3). Despite Guskov’s impressive knockout in his last fight, he gets hit too much for my liking. I see him getting finished with a devastating knockout against a gatekeeper for the higher reaches of the division.
Neither Spann nor Guskov seem to favor going to the cards. Guskov came into the UFC and was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir in his first fight before knocking out Zac Pauga in his second. While it was a nice win to get his career kick-started, Zac Pauga is currently ranked 120th in the Light Heavyweight division, per Fight Matrix. His loss to Oezdemir is justifiable as Oezdemir is ranked No. 15, but Spann isn’t far behind at No. 18.
Even against Pauga, Guskov ate 17 significant strikes while only landing 10 of his own. Even more concerning is that Pauga landed 65% of these strikes. Oezdemir landed 56% of his 46 significant strikes to Guskov while only absorbing eight in return.
Over his first two fights in the UFC, Guskov landed only 2.43 significant strikes per minute at a 33% clip while absorbing 5.81 in return. The sample size is certainly small, but still, these numbers are startling. Against a fighter like Spann, Guskov will pay if he can’t get a quick knockout. Further, Guskov’s last fight came less than two months ago, so there isn’t much time for him to improve substantially on the feet.
Spann has shown great power in the past. Of his eight UFC wins, three came by knockout (38%). Two came against Dominick Reyes and Minotauro Nogueira. While these may not be the most impressive knockout wins given the career arcs of the opposing fighter, they both have better strike defense than Guskov even at their worst.
With the implied probability sitting at around 33% that Spann wins by knockout, there is a nice edge to exploit if Guskov shows little improvement on the feet.
Best UFC Spann–Guskov Bet & Pick: Spann to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +200 at DraftKings
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