Tonight’s UFC 299 will come to a raucous conclusion with a Bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera. This marks O’Malley’s first title defense, but it comes against the only fighter to have ever beaten him. O’Malley is a sizeable favorite for the rematch. Let’s get into our Sean O’Malley-Marlon Vera pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Sean O’Malley-Marlon Vera Pick, Odds and Preview
O’Malley-Vera Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
O’Malley: -275 | Vera: +195
O’Malley -5.5: -125 | Vera +5.5: -105
Over 4.5: -150 | Under 4.5: +120
O’Malley-Vera Pick & Preview
In his first title defense, Sean O’Malley (17-1) seeks to avenge his only loss against Marlon “Chito” Vera (23-8-1). Though I like O’Malley in this one, the moneyline is a bit too steep for my liking. Nonetheless, there seems to be an edge on the spread in favor of O’Malley, given Vera’s difficulty keeping pace in the striking game with most of his recent opponents.
The “Suga” Show is an apt description of most O’Malley fights. Simply put, he isn’t rivaled by many fighters when it comes to his striking prowess. In his UFC career, O’Malley lands a startling 7.25 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy is perhaps more impressive, connecting 61% of the time.
His skill doesn’t end on the offensive side. With his speed, timing, and instincts, he can limit damage, only absorbing 3.51 significant strikes per minute while defending at a strong 61%. Without the threat of the takedown, the numbers suggest O’Malley should cruise his way to victory each round against any fighter outside of the most elite strikers.
Fortunately for O’Malley, Vera doesn’t look to grapple often. In his time in the UFC, Vera averages only 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
Even if he attempts to introduce wrestling more often to take O’Malley off his game, Vera’s 39% success rate on takedowns isn’t too daunting for a fighter who had to face former champion Aljamain Sterling in his last fight.
Vera comes into this fight with a victory over O’Malley, but he struggled to gain the striking advantage in many of his recent fights. Vera absorbs more significant strikes per minute (5.16) than he lands (4.37). In his fights against Rob Font and Dominick Cruz, Vera was significantly outstruck, but was able to equalize with raw power, knocking Font down three times and knocking Cruz out.
When he can’t land his power-bomb, his results have been less than stellar, as seen in his loss to Song Yadong and his domination at the hands of Corey Sandhagen.
However, Vera’s power is the exact reason I am wary of the -275 number in favor of O’Malley. For this line to be profitable, he would have to win over 75% of the time, which is a difficult prospect against a fighter with Vera’s knockout ability. Another interesting quirk in O’Malley’s history worries me about the line.
In their last fight, O’Malley got finished in large part because his leg and ankle were severely compromised. If this was a one-time problem, it would be easy to overlook, but he also broke his leg in the final round against Andre Soukhamtath (although he went on to the fight).
It’s hard to say if these are incredible flukes that aren’t due to any of O’Malley’s physical or stylistic features, but it’s a factor to consider when looking at such a steep line. However, the spread accounts for most of the fight possibilities, with a favorable slant towards O’Malley.
Our UFC betting model has identified a sizeable edge on the Yadong-Yan bout — you can buy the under 2.5 total rounds for +260 at BetRivers, which is much longer than the true odds of +244!
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If O’Malley can finish the fight by knockout, as he has done in seven of his 10 fights, then the scorecards are irrelevant. With near even odds, the risk O’Malley gets finished is far better accounted for than on the moneyline. The main concern for the spread depends on O’Malley’s strategy early. If he comes out a bit more tentative, trying to find the distance, he may well drop a round for lack of activity. However, the bad blood between the two may well see O’Malley start fast.
Overall, these are two different fighters than they were four years ago. If Vera can’t find a way to equalize on the feet, it will likely be a very long night, even if it makes it to the judges.
Best UFC O’Malley–Vera Bet & Pick: O’Malley -5.5 -125 at DraftKings
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