While UFC 302’s headliner, a title fight between Dustin Poirier and Islam Makhachev, promises action, the card’s penultimate bout features a headline-grabbing figure in Sean Strickland, making these even more of an eye-popping card. Let’s get into our Sean Strickland-Paulo Costa pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Sean Strickland-Paulo Costa Pick, Odds and Preview
Strickland–Costa Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Holland: -315 | Oleksiejczuk: +220
Holland -3.5: -195 | Oleksiejczuk +3.5: +145
Over 1.5: -160 | Under 1.5: +124
Strickland–Costa Pick & Preview
Despite a respectable performance against Robert Whittaker in his last bout, Paulo Costa (14-3) comes into his bout against former champ, Sean Strickland (28-6) dropping three of his last four. With Strickland’s great striking defense, and Costa’s tendency to absorb more damage than he lands, this is a fight tailormade for Strickland to run away with.
Strickland is surprisingly inefficient when it comes to his own striking. He only lands 41% of significant strikes. Yet, what he lacks in striking efficiency, he makes up for in pressure and defensive efficiency. Strickland gives his opponents very few openings, defending 62% of significant strikes coming his way, and while he doesn’t land at a particularly efficient rate, his pressure allows him to land 5.91 significant strikes per minute.
Costa, on the other hand, is an efficient striker, landing 6.2 significant strikes at a 58% clip, but his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs 6.38 significant strikes per minute, only defending at a 47% rate.
This doesn’t bode well against a fighter like Strickland, who consistently out strikes his opponents by a wide margin. Even in his last fight, a loss to Dricus Du Plessis, Strickland out landed the champ, 173-137.
It’s not a guarantee that landing more significant strikes will result in a lopsided victory, but Costa doesn’t bring much to the table outside of his striking. Where Du Plessis was able to mix it up and work in six takedowns to pull ahead, Costa has little ability to mix it up grappling, only securing 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time.
Strickland isn’t known for his wrestling, but he still lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time, at a respectable 64% success rate. While it’s unlikely to tip the balance of the full fight, Strickland could certainly mix in a takedown to steal an even round as the fight draws on.
One of Costa’s biggest hurdles will be the fact he hasn’t fought much of late. While he fought in February, his previous hiatus was nearly two years long. He only fought four times since 2020, and only nine times since his debut in 2017. Strickland is known for his activity. He spars constantly, and takes multiple fights a year. By comparison, he fought 10 times since the start 0f 2020. While some debate the legitimacy of “ring rust,” Strickland’s constant presence in the ring should pay dividends over a five-round fight.
I like Strickland’s spread, as I don’t see Costa keeping up with him on the feet. Absent a knockout, Strickland should cruise to a victory in this one.
Best UFC Strickland-Costa Bet & Pick: Strickland -5.5 -140 at DraftKings
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