Song Yadong-Chris Gutierrez Pick and Odds

Song Yadong-Chris Gutierrez Pick & Preview

The headliner between Song Yadong (20-7-1) and Chris Gutierrez (20-5-2) promises to be a high-level chess match between two elite strikers.

With each possessing both the power and technical capability to end the fight in a second, the fight will likely hang on a razor’s edge throughout.

The key word to describe Gutierrez is range. He has an uncanny ability to keep his opponents on the outside, employing a lot of leg and body kicks.

While his 5.04 significant strikes landed per minute is thus a bit overstated, at least as it pertains to knockout shots, they pay dividends strategically.

His range also plays into his defense. Absorbing just under three significant strikes per minute at a 65% defense rate, he has found a way to employ an open defensive guard while maintaining a low risk of getting caught. This will help him avoid Song’s powerbombs throughout the night, a necessity if he wants to stand any chance at winning.

Despite his tendency to keep people at range, Gutierrez has plenty of knockout ability. Of his 25 professional fights that have ended decisively, nine of them have been won by knockout, accounting for 36% of his fight outcomes.

While that number has gone down a tick since entering the UFC, he has still been able to procure three knockouts in 11 fights for a rate of 27%. Gutierrez will have plenty of opportunity to attack Song’s weaknesses, as he absorbs 3.77 significant strikes per minute, at a defense rate of 59%

Bookmakers have undervalued Gutierrez’s knockout ability, placing his odds of winning with one at +900. The combination of Gutierrez’s comfort at distance and Song’s power coming mostly from his punches will require Song to take chances to close the distance to fight at a range more suitable for him.

However, this creates the risk of him getting caught with either a spinning back-kick or a knee up the middle, both of which are techniques Gutierrez regularly employs to punish his opponents when they try to close.

These types of strikes remain some of the most unpredictable and difficult to defend, and Song will need to have a plan to avoid them effectively to impose his will. With implied odds at just 10%, even a small bet on Gutierrez by knockout offers big rewards.