Tim Elliott-Su Madaerji Pick and Odds

Using the latest UFC Fight Night odds, let’s get to our Tim Elliott-Su Madaerji pick and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.

The numbers reveal one brutal truth about Tim Elliott’s career in the UFC: if you were able to bet on every one of his opponents in the plus money, you would have made a nice profit. Of course, it is not always that simple, as a few of his eleven losses have come in fights where he was the underdog or against opponents that, in hindsight, we can say were better.

Watching fighters with backgrounds in Sanda like Mudaerji is always a treat. With other notable practitioners such as Zhang Weili, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and the card’s headliner, Song Yadong, a hallmark of Sanda fighters is their smooth and creative striking. Mudaerji is no different — he has shown a consistent ability to outmatch his opponents on the feet with devastating accuracy and venom, particularly with different types of elbow strikes. Even in his loss to Matt Schnell, Mudaerji came close to victory numerous times, wobbling Schnell with powerful strikes before eventually succumbing to a triangle choke.

One factor that may prove to be a difference-maker is Mudaerji’s length. With a six-inch reach advantage, he will not only have an offensive advantage against Elliott, as he can pepper him with shots from range, but he may also have a defensive advantage as well. Elliott’s path to victory is somewhat predictable: he will have to drag the fight to the ground and win in a gritty decision — or perhaps secure the second submission in his UFC career. A fight that remains on the feet does not play into Elliott’s proven strategy, which involves him procuring nearly four takedowns on average in a fifteen-minute fight.

Elliott will have to pick his chances to close the distance because even a slight miscalculation could prove decisive and lethal. Fighting at range has proven to be a difficult challenge for each of Mudaerji’s opponents to overcome, as the Sando practitioner has landed 158 combined significant strikes from distance in fights after his debut compared to his opponents’ combined 60. Those hits have landed at a success rate of around 51% compared to his opponents’ 26%. Given that Elliott has a shorter reach than all but one of the fighters in this span, he needs a plan to nullify Mudaerji’s reach, which opens him up to Mudaerji’s deadly elbows.

While the fact Elliott is fighting on such short notice is certainly a factor, it is unclear which fighter it advantages more. On the one hand, taking a fight on such short notice can impact a fighter’s conditioning, but given that Elliott fought just under two months ago, he should be in fight shape come Saturday barring any nagging injuries. The strategic challenges for both fighters on such short notice don’t seem to be present here. The fighters had previously booked a fight in June 2021, which was ultimately canceled, so they should be aware of each other’s general tendencies. Further, Mudaerji had already prepared to fight a grappling-heavy opponent in Allan Nascimento, so, stylistically, he doesn’t have to change much in his approach. In all, there is no real way to predict who this favors, though the general thought is that a short-notice fight tends to harm the fighter stepping in at the last minute.

With implied probability putting Mudaerji’s chances to win at around 49%, there is an edge to riding with him in this fight. However, with it being on short notice, the line may well change as the fight approaches

Best UFC Su Mudaerji-Tim Elliott Pick: Su Mudaerji +105 at DraftKings