With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Pick, Odds and Preview
Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Giles: +190 | Prates: -265
Giles +3.5: +140 | Prates -3.5: -185
Over 1.5: -130 | Under 1.5: +100
Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Pick & Preview
Carlos Prates (17-6) comes into the final prelim bout against Trevin Giles (16-5) on a long hot streak.
With nine straight professional wins, seven coming by knockout, Prates’ striking ability makes him a dangerous matchup
Giles has the edge in terms of experience, but his propensity for succumbing to finishes, paired with his demonstrated knockout power, makes this a good spot to buy the under.
Giles maintains a slow pace in the octagon, landing only 2.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.09. This will be a difficult style to maintain against Prates’ aggression.
In his first bout in the UFC, Prates landed 4.81 significant strikes per minute at a stunning 63% rate. While Giles is a more experienced fighter and will be tougher to land on, Prates has precision and power in spades.
However, his aggression will open him up to counters from Giles, who has amassed three knockouts in his UFC career.
OddsShopper Premium has identified this bet from the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer as a +EV pick due to the odds disparity between SuperBook and the rest of the market. For more picks, including picks for the NBA and other sports, subscribe today!
All of Giles’ five UFC losses came by finish, a fact the oddsmakers haven’t overlooked. The line for Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ sits at -110. All other outcomes have odds of +450 or longer. Nonetheless, the line for the under 1.5 sits at +105 with an implied probability of around 48%.
We’re getting a slight edge on this line, particularly when considering that three of Giles’ five losses came before the halfway mark of the second round. With odds for the under 2.5 sitting at -200, the heavy expectation is that this fight will end before the final bell.
Each of these fighters can stop the fight in a moment. Riding with the under seems to be the safest bet here, particularly with the lack of data we have on Prates’ ability against UFC-caliber opponents.
Best UFC Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +100 at DraftKings
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