UFC 284 is set to be an explosive event highlighted by Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett. But the betting value for our UFC 284 best bets goes beyond the main event.
While it’s easy to get excited about betting on the big names, we’ve found value for Saturday’s pay-per-view a little further down the card.
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UFC 284 Best Bets
Best Bet: Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado Under 2.5 Rounds (DraftKings)
The two fighters bring different styles to the Octagon, and fans are in for a treat with this one.
Prado comes into the fight on short notice, taking the bout with only a 4-week preparation period. Despite this, he is a formidable opponent with a record of 11 wins, all by stoppage inside the 2.5-round mark. However, he has never fought outside of South America and now faces a tough challenge in the form of Mullarkey in the latter’s backyard of Australia.
Mullarkey, on the other hand, is a seasoned UFC veteran with 20 MMA fights under his belt. He is a striker and grappler who has only gone past the 2.5-round mark in four of his fights. Even in those four fights, there have been many moments where the fight could have ended. Mullarkey is known for his brawling style, which often results in chaotic moments in his fights.
Prado is a fast starter and throws big punches with power, as evidenced by his 8 first-round stoppages. This fight is sure to be fast and furious from the opening bell, with both fighters looking to make an impact early on. With Prado’s striking and Mullarkey’s grappling, there is likely to be a back-and-forth battle, with both fighters looking to gain the advantage.
If the fight does hit the ground, Mullarkey, a BJJ black belt, is expected to have a significant advantage over Prado, who is a BJJ purple belt. However, with both fighters being known for their striking, this bout is likely to end in a knockout, rather than a submission.
Best Underdog Bet: Don Shainis vs. Jack Jenkins (Shainis +300, FanDuel)
UFC 284 is set to feature an interesting bout between Jack Jenkins, a newcomer from Dana White’s Contender Series, and Don Shainis, who has a short-notice UFC fight under his belt. Jenkins, with a 10-2 record, is a well-rounded fighter with good striking and a devastating calf-kicking game. He also owns a purple belt in BJJ, but his grappling skills have not been tested against top-level competition.
Shainis, on the other hand, comes into the fight with a 12-4 MMA record and has faced much better opposition on the regional scene, including a loss to Sodiq Yusuff in the UFC. He took the UFC fight on short notice and has fought at the 155 lb weight class against much bigger opponents, showing his grappling and wrestling skills. Shainis is known for his big punches and pressuring style, which should give him an advantage in this fight against Jenkins, who likes to keep his distance.
In this bout, Jenkins is the better striker, but Shainis has the edge in grappling and experience. Shainis will look to take the fight to the ground and land ground-and-pound, using his strength advantage to his advantage. The current odds, with Shainis at +300 on FanDuel, seem to be off, and a more accurate line would be in the -180 to -200 range for Jenkins.
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Best Prop Bet: Kleydson Rodrigues Inside the Distance vs. Shannon Ross (+125, BetMGM)
Rodrigues, a UFC debutant, has shown his finishing ability in 5 out of his 7 wins, and he faced a tough and durable opponent in his debut fight against CJ Vergara.
On the other hand, Ross has had a rough run in his recent fights, getting dropped in each of his last 3 bouts and finished in 3 of his past 6 losses. He has shown to have a weak chin, getting dropped in numerous fights, even in fights that he has won. Ross likes to swing in the pocket, but his chin is not capable of handling the power of his opponents.
Rodrigues, being 6 years younger and coming off a solid performance in his UFC debut, is the better fighter in all aspects. He has the power striking and grappling skills to finish Ross, who is coming off a loss in Dana White’s Contender Series where he was dropped multiple times before being finished.
Given Ross’s chin and Rodrigues’s finishing ability, it’s likely that this fight will end inside the distance. With odds of +125 for Rodrigues ITD on BetMGM, the implied probability is 44%, but I believe Rodrigues has a higher chance of finishing Ross. Overall, this is a great opportunity to back Rodrigues ITD at a good price.
