The UFC stays in Las Vegas with our UFC 290 picks headlined by Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez for the Featherweight title. This stacked card also features Brandon Moreno against Alexandre Pantoja for the Flyweight title.
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Let’s preview UFC 290 with picks and odds for the Volkanovski-Rodriguez card.
UFC 290 Picks, Preview & Odds: Alexander Volkanovski-Yair Rodriguez
Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener Odds
Guram Kutateladze: -550 | Elves Brener: +400
The prelims kick off with Guram Kutateladze taking on Elves Brener at 155 pounds. Kutateladze stands out as the largest favorite on the entire card at -550. At 12-3 overall, Kutateladze is making his third UFC appearance. He won a split decision against Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut before dropping his next fight via split decision last June to Damir Ismagulov. On the other side, Brenner will make his second UFC appearance after winning a split decision against Zubaira Tukhugov in February. Overall, he is 14-3 in his career.
Starting with Kutateladze, the Georgian Viking has a well-rounded skill set. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.37. Kutateladze has seven knockout wins out of 12 total victories. On the ground, he only averages 0.5 takedowns per bout, with 12% accuracy. However, he has faced some stiff competition in the grappling realm against Gamrot and Ismagulov. He still boasts 77% takedown defense and only allowed three minutes of control time against Gamrot. Gamrot landed five of 16 takedown attempts in that fight, but Kutateladze showed the ability to work back to his feet.
Brener is a submission specialist. Of his 14 wins, 11 came via submission. Wrestling is a question with Brener after going 0-4 on takedown attempts in his first UFC bout. He lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute, but his striking ratio is slightly negative. Brener has also faced much weaker competition than Kutateladze. However, Kutateladze has been submitted once in his career, at least leaving the door open for Brener.
Ultimately, the odds make sense given Kutateladze’s proven pedigree. While -550 is a lot of juice, he should get the job done in the fight’s main card. For those looking to reduce some juice, check out Kutateladze via decision later in the week.
Tatsuro Taira vs. Edgar Chairez Odds
Alexandr Romanov: -910 | Edgar Chairez: +600
Kicking off the early prelims Tatsuro Taira will take on Edgar Chairez in a short-notice fight at catchweight of 130 pounds. Taira was previously scheduled to fight Kleydon Rodriguez on June 24th, but the fight fizzled at the last moment. Now 3-0 in the UFC and 13-0 overall, Taira will look to extend his winning streak. On the other side, Chairez will take this short notice opportunity after losing a unanimous decision on Dana White’s Contender Series to Clayton Carpenter last August. Overall, Taira comes in as an overwhelming favorite at -910.
The 23 year old Japanese prospect has three knockouts and seven submissions behind his undefeated record. Taira has submitted his last two opponents within the UFC showing a strong ground game. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ) and comes from a wrestling background. This is evidenced by his 2.62 takedowns per bout and 3.7 submission average. However, Taira isn’t a slouch on the feet either. He lands 2.79 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 1.05. Taira uses his striking more to set up his ground game, but he has been excellent through three UFC fights.
On the other side, Chairez will look to rebound from his Contender Series loss. Since then, he has gone 2-0 on the regional scene with a pair of submissions. Chairez has a 10-4 record to his name. Interestingly, he holds six wins by submission, but he has also been submitted six times himself. In his Contender Series bout, Chairez did allow three takedowns and four minutes and 29 seconds of control time.
With Taira’s strength also coming on the ground, Chairez could be in hot water from the beginning of the fight. With the odds coming quite long at -910 the best way to approach this fight might be a submission prop later in the week.
Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics Odds
Kamuela Kirk: +165 | Esteban Ribovics: -210
Kamuela Kirk enters this fight as a +165 underdog after dropping his most recent bout to Damon Jackson by submission in March of last year. Now 1-1 in the UFC, he holds a 12-5 professional record. On the other side, Esteban Ribovics comes in with an 11-1 professional record. After a win on the Contender Series, Ribovics lost his most recent fight against Loik Radzhabov in March of this year.
Of Kirk’s 12 wins, five came via knockout another six via submission. Kirk holds a black belt in BJJ, but he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. In the UFC he averages 0.86 takedowns with 40% accuracy, while holding 53% takedown accuracy himself. While superior wrestlers have been able to get the best of Kirk, his striking has also been a liability. Kirk averages 2.99 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.10 himself. His 37% striking defense is a major concern here.
On the other side, Ribovics comes from a striking background. To this point, he averages 4.79 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.09 himself. The big concern with Ribovics will be the 47% takedown defense. Radzhabov landed 11 takedowns against him in his most recent fight. Prior to his UFC debut, Ribovics had serious strength of schedule concerns.
Overall, Kirk should have a significant edge on the ground. Hopefully, he has worked his wrestling over the last year and can find a way to put Ribovics on his back. Ribovics will be dangerous while on the feet, but Kirk should have weapons in this fight. Kirk is a live underdog.
Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar Odds
Shannon Ross: +180 | Jesus Aguilar: -225
Another flyweight bout, Jesus Aguilar takes on Shannon Ross as a -225 favorite here. Aguilar holds an 8-2 professional record, but lost to Taira in his UFC debut this February. Prior, he defeated Erisson Ferreira on the Contender Series via submission. Ross also lost his UFC debut against Kleydson Rodriguez in February.
Ross comes in a striker with some power. He lands 6.57 significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs 8.99 himself. He was knocked out in both of those fights and knocked down four times in the process. His ground game has been untested in the UFC. Ross was submitted one time on the regional scene, but he seems to prefer striking.
Aguilar comes in as a submission specialist. Of his eight wins, six have come via submission. Along with his submission skills, Aguilar lands 2.77 takedowns per bout with 37% accuracy. On the feet, Aguilar lands just 1.6 significant strikes per minute. He only absorbs 0.92, so his striking ratio remains positive.
At this point, Ross might not even be a UFC caliber fighter. Aguilar’s strength of schedule isn’t pretty either, but he holds the advantages in this fight. Even at -225, Aguilar is playable here.
Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell Odds
Cameron Saaiman: -400 | Terrence Mitchell: +310
At 135 pounds, Cameron Saaiman takes on UFC newcomer Terrence Mitchell as a -400 favorite. Saaiman holds a perfect 8-0 record, which includes a pair of UFC wins over Steven Koslow and Mana Martinez. Mitchell makes his UFC debut with a 14-2 record. However, he hasn’t lost a fight since 2010.
Saaiman is a lethal striker with five knockouts among his eight victories. He lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.59 himself. Saaiman also averages 0.71 takedowns per bout. However, his ground game has been a weakness at times. He only defends takedowns at 40%. Saaiman allowed five takedowns against Koslow. It should be noted that Saaiman was credited with six reversals and actually ended up with more control time.
On the other side, Mitchell has a strange body of work. He only fought one time between 2016-2022. However, he has now fought twice this year, earning a pair of submissions. Mitchell has six knockouts and seven submissions to his name, but he’s already 33 and making his UFC debut. He will also be making this debut on short notice.
Overall, Mitchell’s body of work remains one of the hardest to handicap at this point due to inactivity. Saaiman has already butchered a pair of UFC opponents. Instead of playing -400, looking for a Saaiman knockout prop is the best way to approach this fight.
Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio Odds
Vitor Petrino: -275 | Marcin Prachnio: +220
In the light heavyweight division, Vitor Petrino takes on Marcin Prachnio as a -275 favorite. Petrino enters this fight with a perfect 8-0 record. He most recently won his UFC debut against Anton Turkaji by unanimous decision in March of this year. On the other side, Prachnio comes in at 16-6. After dropping his first three UFC fights, Prachnio is now 3-1 in his last four. He most recently won a decision against William Knight in February of this year.
The 25-year-old Petrino comes from a striking background. Of his eight professional wins, six occurred via knockout. He averages 3.43 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.16 himself. Positively, Petrino also showed his grappling chops in his most recent fight. While he allowed five takedowns, he earned seven takedowns and four reversals himself.
On the other side, Prachnio operates as a pure striker. He lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 3.26 himself. Of his 16 wins, 11 have come via knockout. Despite his striking prowess, Prachnio’s ground game remains a liability. He only possesses 62% takedown defense. Prachnio was taken down four times by Phillipe Lins in his second most recent fight.
While Petrino comes in as the greener prospect, his strength of schedule is actually decent. While Prachnio will be dangerous on the feet, Petrino appears to possess the weapons to neutralize this part of his game. On the ground Petrino should have the clear advantage. For those reasons, Petrino at -275 is the play here, despite coming in as chalk.
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield Odds
Jimmy Crute: -115 | Alonzo Menifield: -105
After initially fighting to a draw in February of this year, Jimmy Crute will again take on Alonzo Menifield as a -115 favorite. A largely competitive fight, a fence grab from Menifield resulted in the point deduction, costing him a victory. Prior to that fight, both athletes had experienced their fair share of struggles. Crute was 0-2 in his two prior fights, while Menifield came off a pair of wins.
Entering this fight, Crute excelled with his wrestling. Crute managed to land six takedowns, which should be his gameplan again here. Crute lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute, while averaging 5.19 takedowns per minute. Menifield has 75% takedown defense and showed some solid scrambling ability. However, Crute should still hold the edge on the ground.
While Crute’s wrestling kept him in the fight, Menifield had plenty of success striking. He knocked Crute down twice and out-landed him 56-31 in the fight. Overall, Menifield lands 3.88 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.04 himself. It should be noted that Menifield has been knocked out one time.
Overall, Crute needs to be weary of Menifield’s power. On top of getting knocked down in the fight, Crute has also been finished twice in his career. However, it appears Crute found a potential game plan with his wrestling against Menifield. This gives him a chance to control rounds and ultimately outscore Menifield on the judges scorecards.
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise Gomes Odds
Yazmin Jauregui: -400 | Denise Gomes: +300
Yasmin Jauregui enters this fight with a perfect 10-0 record, including a 2-0 run in the UFC. She most recently knocked out Istela Nunes in December. She will now face the 7-2 Denise Gomes, who most recently knocked out Bruna Brasil. Now 1-1 in the UFC after a Contender Series victory Gomes comes in as a +300 underdog to Jauregui.
Jauregui is a pure striker with seven of her 10 wins coming via knockout. She lands 6.35 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 4.23 herself. On the ground, she went 0-3 on her takedown attempts against Nunes in her most recent fight. Jauregui does have 100% takedown defense herself, but she has only faced a pair of attempts. This leaves some question as to what her ground game would look like, if an opponent can force the action.
On the other side, Gomes also comes from a striking background. Of her seven professional wins, five occurred via knockout. She lands 4.67 significant strikes, while absorbing 3.13 herself. Gomes also averages 1.19 takedowns per bout, but she has shown some weakness on the ground. Loma Lookboonmee landed four takedowns against her last September. With that said, this fight doesn’t look likely to reach the ground.
A fight between two up and coming fighters, Jauregui looks to be the more dynamic fighter in this matchup. The number is long on Jauregui, making decision props a little more interesting. Look for those later in the week.
Josiah Harrell vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds
Josiah Harrell: +600 | Jack Della Maddalena: -1100
With Sean Brady dropping out, Jack Della Maddalena will put his 14-2 record on the line against UFC newcomer Josiah Harrell. Maddalena is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC after he most recently submitted Randy Brown in February. On the other side, Harrell comes in with a perfect 7-0 record. He knocked out Michael Roberts in LFA on June 16th. Now, he will pray for some magic as a +600 underdog to Maddalena.
Maddalena comes from a boxing background. Of his 14 wins, 11 occurred via knockout. Maddalena lands 8.27 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 4.29 himself. His 68% striking defense comes in at the elite range. As for takedowns, he hasn’t landed any himself within the UFC, but he defends them at a 71% clip. The last time he was taken down against Ramazan Emeev, Maddalena quickly worked back to his feet and escaped the ground threat.
Harrell comes from a wrestling base. He only started fighting professionally in 2020, making him the greener man. His record is also inflated by numerous cupcake opponents with losing records. While Harrell theoretically has a ground game advantage with his wrestling base, taking down a fighter of Maddalena’s caliber remains another story.
Similar to Tsarukyan a few weeks ago, playing Maddalena at -1100 is a tough ask. Honestly, this line is probably going to move in his favor, so get it now if you’re going to take him. Otherwise, looking in the prop market or using him as a parlay piece looks like the best option.
Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price Odds
Robbie Lawler: +200 | Niko Price: -250
An interesting placement on this card, washed up UFC legend Robbie Lawler will take on Niko Price as a +200 underdog. Now 29-16, Lawler has one victory in his last six fights dating back to 2017. Bryan Barberena most recently knocked him out in July of last year. Meanwhile, Price enters this fight with a 15-6 record. He is 1-2 in his last three fights, getting knocked out by Phil Rowe last December.
Now 41-years old, Lawler comes in as an old school banger from a previous generation. Of his 29 wins, 21 occurred via knockout. Lawler averages 3.83 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.67. He also averages 0.65 takedowns per bout, but this fight looks unlikely to go that route. Lawler has turned into a punching bag at this point in his career, getting out-landed in nine of his last 10 fights.
On the other side, Price comes in as a striker as well. At 33 years old, Price should have a significant athletic edge. He lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.57 himself. Price only has 48% striking defense and he has bee knocked out four times. This leaves concern against an experienced striker like Lawler. Regardless, Price is never shy about a striking war, which the fans should love.
As for handicapping this fight, it is impossible to back Lawler at his point in his career given his recent showings. With Price possessing the ability to put Lawler away, knockout props remain on the table as well.
Bo Nickal vs. Tresean Gore Odds
Bo Nickal: -1400 | Tresean Gore: +775
The hype machine Bo Nickal makes his return to the Octagon as a -1400 favorite over Tresean Gore. While relatively inexperienced at 4-0, Nickal continues to run through him competition. Most recently, Nickal submitted Jamie Pickett in March of this year. On the other side, Gore possesses a 4-2 record and sits at 1-2 in his last three fights. With that said, he submitted Josh Fremd in his last appearance in October.
Nickal, while his MMA career has been short, comes from a credentialed wrestling background. An NCAA champion at Penn State, Nickal isn’t your average newcomer to MMA. Evaluating his stats is somewhat silly, due to the short duration of his fights. He averages 12.5 takedowns per bout and will hunt submissions relentlessly. The biggest questions with Nickal’s game are striking and adversity related. He hasn’t been pushed in any of his fights, winning by first-round finish in every one. At some point, he will run into a capable opponent that will test him.
On the other side, Gore comes in as a veteran of the Ultimate Fighter. At 29-years-old, Gore remains relatively green himself. He lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 6.13 himself. His 47% striking defense remains a major concern. On the ground, Gore averages 3.04 takedowns per bout with 71% accuracy. He defends them at 81%, but facing Nickal with significantly test that number. In his career, Gore has one knockout and two submission victories.
With Gore’s affinity for the ground, it’s hard to envision him finding a way to defeat Nickal. Nickal’s number here is still absurd. Try looking for Nickal via submission. Even that might be unplayable.
Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker Odds
Jalin Turner: -250 | Dan Hooker: +200
Jalin Turner makes his highly-anticipated return to the Octagon against Dan Hooker. Turner sits at 13-6 in his career, but he dropped his most recent fight via split decision to Mateusz Gamrot in March. Prior to that, Turner won five straight fights, finishing them all. On the other side, Hooker comes in with a 22-12 record. He is 2-4 in his last six fights, but those losses came against the UFC’s top fighters. Most recently, he knocked out Claudio Puelles in November of last year.
Turner, 28, has become a lethal finisher in the UFC. Of his 13 wins, he has nine knockouts and four submissions. Turner has been knocked out three times himself, but that last occurred in 2018. As for output, Turner averages 5.63 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.79 himself. Turner can also grapple. He doesn’t always use it, but he averages 0.89 takedowns per bout. In fact, three of his last four wins occurred via submission, making him a sneaky threat wherever the fight goes.
On the other side, Hooker comes from a kickboxing background. He lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.61 himself. Of his 22 wins, 11 occurred via knockout with another seven via submission. On the ground, Hooker lands 0.85 takedowns per bout. Both fighters possess strong takedown defense, making his fight more likely to remain in the upright position.
One X-factor here could be Turner’s length. Both fighters are large for the division, but Turner is 6-3 with a 77-inch reach. We rarely go straight to props, but looking at this fight not to reach the judges or under 2.5 rounds looks like the best wager here. For those set on playing a fighter, the underdog price on Hooker remains the top bet.
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Odds
Robert Whittaker: -400 | Dricus Du Plessis: +300
The ultimate gatekeeper in the middleweight division, Robert Whittaker returns to face Dricus Du Plessis as a -400 favorite this weekend. Whittaker comes in with a 25-6 professional record, having lost to only Israel Adesanya since 2014. He most recently defeated Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision in September. Meanwhile, Du Plessis is 19-2 in his career and 5-0 in the UFC. He defeated Derek Brunson via second round knockout in March.
An extremely well rounded fighter, Whittaker comes from a striking background, but he also holds a black belt in BJJ. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.26 himself at 61% striking defense. On the ground, he lands 0.82 takedowns per bout, but he defends them at 84% himself. Of his 25 wins, he has nine knockouts and five submissions. Whittaker also has a strength of schedule advantage, having done battle with the division’s best for years now.
Du Plessis is particularly interesting for this division, because there’s no one else left for Adesanya to beat. He comes from a kickboxing background, but Du Plessis has eight knockouts and 10 submission to his name. As for output, he lands 6.72 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.73 himself. On the ground, he averages 2.83 takedowns per bout, but defends them at 50%. Fighters have been reluctant to shoot takedowns on Du Plessis, so that number remains fraudulent. His level of competition isn’t quite as strong as Whittaker’s. He owns wins over Brad Tavares, Darren Till, and Derek Brunson, but there is a very real possibility that all three are washed at this point.
Ultimately, Whittaker deserves to be the clear favorite here, but a -400 number completely discounts Du Plessis. This is a fighter with elite finishing potential, capable of hurting Whittaker at some point. For that reason, a sprinkle on Du Plessis remains the top play here.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Odds
Brandon Moreno: -210 | Alexandre Pantoja: +170
With the flyweight crown on the line Brandon Moreno takes on Alexandre Pantoja as a -210 favorite. After dueling Deiveson Figueiredo for the better part of three years, Moreno finally put that rivalry behind him with a knockout with a knockout win in January. Moreno is now 3-1 in his last four fights with that lone loss also coming against Figueiredo. On the other side, Pantoja comes in with a 25-5 record. Now 3-0 in his last three fights, Pantoja most recently submitted Alex Perez in July a year ago. Interestingly, Pantoja holds a pair of head-to-head wins over Moreno from the Ultimate Fighter and in 2018.
A BJJ black belt, Moreno remains one of the most well-rounded fighters in the entire UFC. He lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.19. He also lands 1.8 takedowns per bout, while defending them at 67%. Moreno possesses elite grappling ability and rarely finds himself controlled on the mat. Of his 21 wins, Moreno holds five knockouts and 11 submissions. He has never been finished inside the Octagon.
Also a credentialed black belt, Pantoja averages 1.37 takedowns per bout, while defending them at 67% as well. Of his 25 wins, he has eight knockouts and 11 submissions. On the feet, Pantoja lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.38 himself. Wherever the fight goes, Pantoja possesses the skills to compete.
A tough fight to handicap, Pantoja’s two wins against Moreno’s monumental improvements will be the difference. Since the second Moreno win, Pantoja’s only losses came against Figueiredo and Askar Askarov. While Moreno deserves the favorite tag for his recent accomplishment, this number may be a bit inflated. Taking Pantoja at the underdog price looks particularly enticing here.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Odds
Alexander Volkanovski: -450 | Yair Rodriguez: +325
With the Featherweight title on the line Alexander Volkanovski takes on Yair Rodriguez as a -450 favorite. Now 25-2 in his career, Volkanovski lost his most recent fight up a weight class against Islam Makhachev. Prior to that, he had won all 12 of his UFC bouts. On the other side, Rodriguez comes in with a 16-3 record. He won his last two fights over Brian Ortega and Josh Emmett getting to the interim title. Now he will look to unify the belt as a large underdog.
Volkanovski comes in as the No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.03. Volkanovski has also proven himself on the ground. While he only lands 0.79 takedowns, he defended well against Makhachev in his most recent right. Many of Volkanovski’s fights end in decision, but he has 12 knockouts and three submissions to his game as well.
On the other side, Rodriguez comes in with an equally well-rounded skillset. He lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.03. On the ground, Rodriguez averages 0.79 takedowns per bout, while defending them at 63%. Similar to Volkanovski, Rodriguez will often fight to a decision. However, he has five knockouts and four submissions. It should be noted that Rodriguez lost to Max Holloway in 2021, while Volkanovski ran laps around the same opponent.
Overall, Rodriguez will be dangerous here. His leg kicks could be particularly dangerous for Volkanovski. However, Volkanovski has proven to be one of the best game planners within the UFC. As well-rounded as they come Volkanovski deserves his -450 number here.
