The UFC heads to Salt Lake City for UFC 291: Dustin Poirier-Justin Gaethje. This stacked card also features Jan Blachowicz against Alex Pereira in the co-main event. Ahead of the UFC 291 card, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC 291 picks and predictions for the Poirier-Gaethje card. Onto our best UFC 291 bets!
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UFC 291 Picks, Preview, Odds & Predictions: Dustin Poirier-Justin Gaethje
Best UFC 291 Bets: Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira Odds
Miranda Maverick: -350 | Priscila Cachoeira: +275
Kicking off UFC 291, Miranda Maverick will take on Priscila Cachoeira in the women’s flyweight division. Maverick is 4-3 in the UFC and enters this fight off a decision loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius back in June. Cachoeira sits at 4-4 in the UFC, but she rides a two-fight winning streak. Despite knocking out Ariane Lipski last June, she is a +275 underdog.
Maverick comes from a grappling background. Inside the Octagon, she averages 2.24 takedowns per bout and 54% accuracy. She only defends them at 42%, but she will often accept takedowns in order to get a fight to the mat. On the feet, she lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.87. With 59% striking defense, Maverick is a fairly well-rounded fighter. Of her 11 career wins, six of those have come by submission. She does have five losses on her profile, but two of those came recently to two of the better fighters in the division in Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber.
Cachoeira has a 12-4 professional record and comes from a striking background, evidenced by her seven career knockouts. However, she only lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.85. Her 46% striking defense speaks to her questionable decision making on the feet. On the mat, she has been submitted twice and defends takedowns at 65%. She is not much of a threat to land them, making this a tough matchup for her. She also has a weaker strength of schedule and arguably should have lost her second-most recent fight against Ji Yeon Kim.
The odds are fairly wide for this fight, but Maverick deserves to be a sizable favorite. For those looking for betting odds, Maverick by submission should offer better returns later in the week.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic Odds
Matthew Semelsberger: -165 | Uros Medic: +140
Moving to the men’s welterweight division, Matthew Semelsberger faced Uros Medic as a -165 favorite. Now 5-3 in the UFC, Semelsberger comes off a split decision loss to Jeremiah Wells in April. Medic is 2-1 in the UFC after defeating Omar Morales in May of last year. This fight should feature a lot of action as both participants love to pressure.
Semelsberger comes from a wrestling background and played college football at Marist College. He has developed a fairly well-rounded game over the years, landing 4.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.21. He possesses solid 56% striking defense, which should ease any concerns regarding the negative striking ratio. On the mat, he lands 1.16 takedowns on average and 70% accuracy. However, he has been outgrappled at times, evidenced by his 52% takedown defense. Most recently, Wells landed six takedowns on Semelsberger and controlled him for over 11 minutes. At 11-5 overall, Semelsberger has six knockouts and one submission victory.
Medic has a diverse mixed martial arts background that includes wrestling, kickboxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.76. Medic has never landed a takedown in the UFC, but he has also only been taken down once. This came against Jalin Turner, resulting in his only professional loss. Medic is 8-1 with six knockout wins and another two submissions. With that said, his lack of UFC statistics could cloud some of his skills for now.
This should be an all-action fight from the jump. Semelsberger has fought the tougher competition to this point, but the gap is not wide. Medic appears to have the tools to neutralize Semelsberger wherever the fight may go. For that reason, throwing a dart on Medic at +140 makes the most sense.
Best UFC 291 Bets: C.J. Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador Odds
C.J. Vergara: -175 | Vinicius Salvador: +145
In the men’s flyweight division, C.J. Vergara takes on Vinicius Salvador as a -175 favorite. Vergara most recently defeated Daniel Lacerda via knockout back in March. Salvador is a Dana White Contender Series alum who lost his UFC debut to Victor Altamirano back in March, setting him up as the underdog.
Vergara comes from a Muay Thai striking background and lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute. He only absorbs 4.75 behind his 53% striking defense. Vergara has never landed a takedown in his career, but he defends them at 72%. The only fighter to control him on the mat to this point has been Tatsuro Taira, but Vergara has pretty solid defense if a fight hits the mat. At 11-4 in his career, Vergara has seven knockouts and four decisions. He has been submitted twice in his career, but that does not look like much of a threat against Salvador.
Salvador also comes from a striking background, with 13 of his 14 professional wins coming via knockout. Salvador has been knocked out twice and does have some durability concerns. he lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.29. Salvador theoretically has an advantage on the ground, but he only lands 0.62 takedowns per bout. Vergara is not much of a threat on the mat, but Salvador does defend takedowns at 86%.
This should be a striking affair, with Vergara having the edge on the feet. He also has a much better strength of schedule, which should be enough for him to edge out Salvador. At just -175, he is worth a play.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers Odds
Jake Matthews: -300 | Darrius Flowers: +250
With Miguel Baeza out of this fight, Jake Matthews will now take on late replacement Darrius Flowers as a -300 favorite. A longtime UFC veteran, Matthews lost his most recent bout against Matthew Semelsberger via unanimous decision last December. On the other side, Flowers won his most recent bout on the Contender Series over Amiran Gogoladze in August of last year. However, a suspension has prevented Flowers from competing until this weekend.
Matthews has 17 fights within the UFC. Matthews possesses a relatively well-rounded skill set, highlighted by a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. On the mat, he lands 1.78 takedowns per bout while defending them at 60%. Superior grapplers have been able to take advantage of Matthews at times. Semelsberger landed three takedowns against him most recently. On the feet, he lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute while defending them at 60%. At 18-6 in his career, Matthews has five knockout wins and seven submissions. He has also been knocked out once and submitted three times in his losses.
On the other side, Flowers will compete for the first time in almost a year. USADA hit Flowers with a six-month suspension, but he will be eligible to compete again for the first time this weekend. Flowers looks like a pure striker, with eight knockouts and one submission among his 12 professional wins. He only has one fight with UFC statistics, but he lands 0.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.64. Flowers won his Contender Series fight with a slam, although it was deemed a submission due to injury. He looks especially vulnerable on the ground, with four submission losses in his career.
While Flowers’ takedown defense is relatively unproven, Matthews should be a strong favorite in this part of the fight. If he can get Flowers on the ground early, he should be able to control the newcomer or work for a submission. Matthews at -300 looks completely fine, but Matthews by submission should be considered later this week as well.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro Odds
Roman Kopylov: -225 | Claudio Ribeiro: +185
Moving to the men’s middleweight division, Roman Kopylov will take on Claudio Ribeiro as a -225 favorite this weekend. Kopylov is 2-2 in the UFC, but he won each of his last two fights. Most recently, he defeated Punahele Soriano by knockout in January. On the other side, Ribeiro is 1-1 in the UFC, with an additional win on the Contender Series. Most recently, he knocked out Joseph Holmes in May of this year.
Kopylov comes from a sambo background, but he has developed a strong mixed martial arts game to this point. He lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.96. On the ground, he averages 0.62 takedowns per bout. Kopylov has a strong defensive game, including 60% striking defense and 89% takedown defense. At 10-2 overall, Kopylov has nine knockouts and has been submitted just once, which came against UFC stalwart Karl Roberson.
On the other side, Ribeiro also comes from a strong striking background. At 11-3, Ribeiro has nine knockout wins to his name. He has been knocked out once and submitted once. On the feet, he lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.39. He also averages 1.05 takedowns per bout and defends them at 75%. Ribeiro does not have the best strength of schedule, which makes him a liability.
Kopylov has fought the better opponents and should have the cleaner striking. Ribeiro does utilize a lot of leg kicks, which could help neutralize some of Kopylov’s strengths. Kopylov deserves to be favored. However, the odds look a little long, putting some value on Ribeiro at +185 as an underdog. Watch the line movement throughout the week.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima Odds
Derrick Lewis: +140 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -165
Fan favorite Derrick Lewis makes his return against Marcos Rogerio de Lima as a +140 underdog this weekend. Lewis has now dropped three straight fights after previously fighting for the title in 2021. He lost his last fight against Serghei Spivac via submission back in February. On the other side, de Lima won his last fight via decision against Waldo Cortes-Acosta in April of this year, setting up an interesting clash at heavyweight.
Lewis is a pure striker. He has 21 wins by knockout, but he has also been knocked out seven times. Lewis lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.59. On the ground, Lewis only has 52% takedown defense, and he has been submitted twice in his career. With that said, Lewis has shown the ability to work back to his feet throughout his career. It should be noted that Lewis has significantly more high-level experience despite both fighters being 38 years old.
On the other side, de Lima has a 21-8 professional record. He has 14 knockouts and three submission wins. Despite his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he has been submitted five times and knocked out once. Within the UFC, he averages 3.62 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.83. He also lands 1.35 takedowns and defends them at 59%. The biggest problem with de Lima is his strength of schedule. His best win within the promotion might be Andrei Arlovski.
While Lewis has been on a recent skid, these fights have also come against some of the best heavyweights in the world. During this same period of time, de Lima has been beating the back half of the heavyweight division. With this fight likely playing out on the feet, taking a shot on Lewis’ power at +140 makes sense.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles Odds
Gabriel Bonfim: -300 | Trevin Giles: +240
Back to the men’s welterweight division, Gabriel Bonfim takes on Trevin Giles as a -300 favorite. After previously fighting on the Contender Series, Bonfim defeated Mounir Lazzez via submission back in January. Opposite him, Giles enters this bout on a two-fight winning streak. He most recently defeated Preston Parsons in March of this year.
Bonfim is a specialist on the ground and has a perfect 14-0 record. Among these wins, he has three knockouts and 11 submissions, giving him a perfect finishing rate. Bonfim is hyper-aggressive, landing 6.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.76. Despite these high numbers, Bonfim still has 65% striking defense. On the mat, Bonfim lands 2.98 takedowns per bout and 100% takedown defense. He still has not fought the same caliber of competition as Giles, but his regional record looks decent.
Giles has a 16-4 professional record, with six knockout wins and five submission victories. At the same time, he has been knocked out and submitted twice. Giles lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.09. He also lands 1.29 takedowns while defending them at 73%. He has proven to be a fairly well-rounded fighter and competent enough to stand with some of the division’s best.
While there is plenty of hype regarding Bonfim, he is relatively unproven, with only one UFC fight. Giles’ losses continue to age well. Within his last seven fights, he has only lost to Dricus Du Plessis and Michael Morales while defeating fighters like Roman Dolidze in the process. Seeing Giles at +240 is a surprise and makes him a strong value play as an underdog.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Odds
Michael Chiesa: +125 | Kevin Holland: -145
Keeping it in the men’s welterweight division, Michael Chiesa takes on Kevin Holland as a +125 underdog. After winning four straight fights, Chiesa dropped his last two fights to Vicente Luque and Sean Brady. His last fight came in 2021, putting him away from the game for over 18 months. On the other side, Kevin Holland has traded wins and losses for a long time within the UFC. Most recently, he defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio via knockout in April of this year.
Chiesa comes from a grappling background. He is 16-6 in his career, with 10 wins via submission. He has been submitted four times in addition to a knockout loss from earlier in his career. Within the UFC, he lands 1.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.67. On the mat, he averages 3.39 takedowns per bout and 60% takedown defense on the comeback. Recently, other fighters have been taking advantage of Chiesa on the ground. Luque submitted him, while Brady landed five takedowns and earned nearly eight minutes of control time. With all that said, Chiesa should have a massive advantage over Holland’s weak grappling game.
On the other side, Holland has a 24-9 record to this point. He has 14 knockouts, six submissions and four decision victories. Holland also has been knocked out once, submitted thrice and lost via decision five times. Holland lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.98. He averages 0.84 takedowns per bout, but he only defends them at 50%. Holland should have a striking advantage over Chiesa, but grappling is a major concern.
Both athletes have a clear path to victory, but Chiesa should take this with his strong ground game. Multiple opponents like Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori and Khamzat Chimaev have all exposed Holland for his weak ground game. With Chiesa at +125, another underdog will hit the card.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Odds
Tony Ferguson: +270 | Bobby Green: -350
In the men’s lightweight division, Tony Ferguson will take on Bobby Green as a +270 underdog. In a true fall from grace, Ferguson has now lost five straight after initially challenging Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title in May of 2020. He most recently lost to Nate Diaz via submission in September of last year. On the other side, Green has had a checkered year. After losing to Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober, he fought to a no-contest against Jared Gordon due to a clash of heads. Green also faced a six-month USADA suspension within that period, but he now returns as a massive favorite over Ferguson.
Starting with Ferguson, the UFC veteran originally comes from a wrestling background, but he has evolved into a pure striker over the years. He averages 5.07 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.95. On the mat, he lands 0.44 takedowns per bout while defending them at 66%. Ferguson previously held one of the most impressive win streaks in the division, but he has now been outstruck in each of his last five fights. At 25-8, Ferguson has 12 knockouts and eight submissions. However, his durability and defense have become major issues.
Similar to Ferguson, Green also comes from a wrestling background. However, he too has leaned into his striking within the UFC. On the feet, he lands 5.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.67. He lands 1.28 takedowns per bout while defending them at 72%. Green has a professional record of 29-14-1, with a no-contest. This record includes 10 knockouts and eight submission victories.
This is an extremely tough fight to handicap. Both fighters have been losing to the division’s elite at this point, and many have completely written off Ferguson despite his body of work being not too different from Green’s. Green deserves to be a favorite as the fresher fighter. However, a -350 tag looks a bit absurd. Ferguson at +270 will be the official pick.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira Odds
Note: This fight was canceled after Pereira missed weight.
Stephen Thompson: -185 | Michel Pereira: +150
Yet another men’s welterweight matchup, Stephen Thompson will take on Michel Pereira as a -185 favorite. After losing two straight to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad, Thompson defeated Kevin Holland with a knockout in his most recent fight. On the other side, Pereira rides a five-fight winning streak capped off by a split decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Thompson comes from a kickboxing background and lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.04. He has a major weakness on the ground, evidenced by his 64% takedown defense. Burns and Muhammad combined for 10 takedowns against Thompson and controlled him for over 18 minutes. While this should not be as much of a threat against Pereira, it is the blueprint to defeating Thompson. Now 40 years old, Thompson has a 17-6 record with eight knockout wins.
Pereira comes into this fight with an interesting resume. At 29 years old, Pereira somehow has a professional record of 28-11 with two no contests. He has developed a well-rounded game to this point with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Karate. Pereira lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.78. He also averages 1.58 takedowns per bout and 94% takedown defense on the comeback. Of his 28 wins, Pereira has 10 knockouts and seven submission victories to this point. It should be noted that Pereira has a much weaker strength of schedule. Thompson has been fighting the best in the world for nearly 10 years while Pereira’s best wins are Ponzinibbio, Andre Fialho and Danny Roberts.
Perhaps the toughest fight to handicap thus far, this fight could come down to Pereira’s ability to get Thompson to the mat. Thompson showed some improvements in his takedown defense against Holland, making this easier said than done. With this being a massive step up in competition, Thompson will be the official pick. However, the confidence level is not the highest with this selection.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Odds
Jan Blachowicz: -120 | Alex Pereira: +100
Moving to the men’s light heavyweight division, former champion Jan Blachowicz will take on former middleweight champion Alex Pereira as a -120 favorite. Blachowicz enters this fight off a draw against Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant light heavyweight title. Prior to that, he defeated Aleksandar Rakic via knockout. This will be Pereira’s first light heavyweight fight after he battled Israel Adesanya twice and split the fights his last two times out.
Blachowicz brings a well-rounded game. Known for his “Polish power,” Blachowicz lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.81. He also comes from a judo background, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. On the mat, Blachowicz lands 0.97 takedowns per bout while defending them at 68%. With Pereira coming from a kickboxing background, Blachowicz may opt to use his grappling more frequently. At 29-9-1 overall, Blachowicz has nine knockouts, nine submissions and 11 decision wins. He has been knocked out twice, which theoretically is Pereira’s best path to victory.
On the other side, Pereira is relatively green in his MMA career. While he has a wealth of experience in kickboxing, specific matchmaking fast-tracked Pereira to a middleweight title without facing anyone with legitimate grappling credentials. he lands 5.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.76. He is not a threat to land a takedown, but he defends them at 73%. However, that may not hold up in the higher weight class. Adesanya was taken down three times and controlled for over seven minutes after previously displaying elite takedown defense at middleweight.
Blachowicz is now 3-0 against middleweights moving up to light heavyweight. Pereira is the largest of this group, which should neutralize some of the size advantages that Blachowicz has held in the past. However, Blachowicz showed more than capable of striking with Adesanya as a route to earning the takedown. Pereira has been working with ground game phenom Glover Teixeira, but whether or not that will be enough is the question. For betting purposes, Blachowicz’s clear path to victory and short odds make him a strong play as a -120 favorite.
Best UFC 291 Bets: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Odds
Dustin Poirier: -130 | Justin Gaethje: +110
In the men’s lightweight division for the vacant BMF belt, Dustin Poirier will fight Justin Gaethje in a rematch as UFC 291’s main event. Both fighters have only lost to the best of the best in championship settings of late. Poirier is 4-2 in his last six fights, with the only losses coming against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Last time out, he submitted Michael Chandler in November. Likewise, Gaethje is 6-2 in his last eight fights, with his only losses coming to the same two opponents. =Gaethje defeated Rafael Fiziev via majority decision in his last fight. These two previously fought on April 14, 2018, with Poirier earning a knockout in the fourth round.
Poirier comes from a boxing background but is a veteran in the game. He lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25. On the mat, he also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Poirier averages 1.39 takedowns per bout and 63% takedown defense on the comeback. Poirier has a 29-7 professional record, including 14 knockouts and eight submission victories.
Gaethje comes from a collegiate wrestling background, but spectators would not know it by watching his fights. Gaethje is very aggressive, landing 7.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.66. He averages 0.13 takedowns per bout, defending them at 75% on the comeback. Gaethje is 24-4 with 19 knockouts and one submission victory. This should be a standup war from the start.
Both fighters have made major strides within MMA, which should make this a fairly even fight. Poirier should have an advantage on the ground if this fight hits the mat. However, most expect this to stand, where it should be close to even. At the underdog price, Gaethje is a sharp play given the recent improvements to his game.
