It’s time to release our UFC 291 predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC 291 odds, let’s get on with it by providing our Derrick Lewis-Marcos Rogerio de Lima pick and prediction.
Fan favorite Derrick Lewis makes his return against Marcos Rogerio de Lima as a +140 underdog this weekend. Lewis has now dropped three straight fights after previously fighting for the title in 2021. He lost his last fight against Serghei Spivac via submission back in February. On the other side, de Lima won his last fight via decision against Waldo Cortes-Acosta in April of this year, setting up an interesting clash at heavyweight.
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UFC 291 Predictions: Derrick Lewis-Marcos Rogerio Pick
Derrick Lewis-Marcos Rogerio de Lima Odds
Derrick Lewis: +140 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima: -165
Derrick Lewis is a pure striker. He has 21 wins by knockout, but he has also been knocked out seven times. Lewis lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.59. On the ground, Lewis only has 52% takedown defense, and he has been submitted twice in his career. With that said, Lewis has shown the ability to work back to his feet throughout his career. It should be noted that Lewis has significantly more high-level experience despite both fighters being 38 years old.
Opposite Lewis, Marcos de Lima has a 21-8 professional record. He has 14 knockouts and three submission wins. Despite his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he has been submitted five times and knocked out once. Within the UFC, he averages 3.62 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.83. He also lands 1.35 takedowns and defends them at 59%. The biggest problem with de Lima is his strength of schedule. His best win within the promotion might be Andrei Arlovski.
Our final Derrick Lewis-Marcos Rogerio de Lima pick and prediction: While Lewis has been on a recent skid, these fights have also come against some of the best heavyweights in the world. During this same period of time, de Lima has been beating the back half of the heavyweight division. With this fight likely playing out on the feet, taking a shot on Lewis’ power at +140 makes sense.
