It’s time to release our UFC 291 predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC 291 odds, let’s get on with it by providing our Jan Blachowicz-Alex Pereira pick and prediction.
Former champion Jan Blachowicz will take on former middleweight champion Alex Pereira as a -120 favorite. Blachowicz enters this fight off a draw against Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant light heavyweight title. Prior to that, he defeated Aleksandar Rakic via knockout. This will be Pereira’s first light heavyweight fight after he battled Israel Adesanya twice and split the fights his last two times out.
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UFC 291 Predictions: Jan Blachowicz-Alex Pereira Pick
Jan Blachowicz-Alex Pereira Odds
Jan Blachowicz: -120 | Alex Pereira: +100
Jan Blachowicz brings a well-rounded game. Known for his “Polish power,” Blachowicz lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.81. He also comes from a judo background, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. On the mat, Blachowicz lands 0.97 takedowns per bout while defending them at 68%.
With Pereira coming from a kickboxing background, Blachowicz may opt to use his grappling more frequently. At 29-9-1 overall, Blachowicz has nine knockouts, nine submissions and 11 decision wins. He has been knocked out twice, which theoretically is Pereira’s best path to victory.
Alex Pereira is relatively green in his MMA career. While he has a wealth of experience in kickboxing, specific matchmaking fast-tracked Pereira to a middleweight title without facing anyone with legitimate grappling credentials. he lands 5.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.76.
He is not a threat to land a takedown, but he defends them at 73%. However, that may not hold up in the higher weight class. Adesanya was taken down three times and controlled for over seven minutes after previously displaying elite takedown defense at middleweight.
Blachowicz is now 3-0 against middleweights moving up to light heavyweight. Pereira is the largest of this group, which should neutralize some of the size advantages that Blachowicz has held in the past. However, Blachowicz showed more than capable of striking with Adesanya as a route to earning the takedown.
Pereira has been working with ground game phenom Glover Teixeira, but whether or not that will be enough is the question. For betting purposes, Blachowicz’s clear path to victory and short odds make him a strong play as a -120 favorite.
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