It’s time to release our UFC 291 predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC 291 odds, let’s get on with it by providing our Michael Chiesa-Kevin Holland pick and prediction.
Michael Chiesa takes on Kevin Holland as a +125 underdog. After winning four straight fights, Chiesa dropped his last two fights to Vicente Luque and Sean Brady. His last fight came in 2021, putting him away from the game for over 18 months. On the other side, Kevin Holland has traded wins and losses for a long time within the UFC. Most recently, he defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio via knockout in April of this year.
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UFC 291 Predictions: Michael Chiesa-Kevin Holland Pick
Michael Chiesa-Kevin Holland Odds
Michael Chiesa: +125 | Kevin Holland: -145
Michael Chiesa comes from a grappling background. He is 16-6 in his career, with 10 wins via submission. He has been submitted four times in addition to a knockout loss from earlier in his career. Within the UFC, he lands 1.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.67. On the mat, he averages 3.39 takedowns per bout and 60% takedown defense on the comeback. Recently, other fighters have been taking advantage of Chiesa on the ground. Luque submitted him, while Brady landed five takedowns and earned nearly eight minutes of control time. With all that said, Chiesa should have a massive advantage over Holland’s weak grappling game.
As for Kevin Holland, he has a 24-9 record to this point. He has 14 knockouts, six submissions and four decision victories. Holland also has been knocked out once, submitted thrice and lost via decision five times. Holland lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.98. He averages 0.84 takedowns per bout, but he only defends them at 50%. Holland should have a striking advantage over Chiesa, but grappling is a major concern.
Both athletes have a clear path to victory, but Chiesa should take this with his strong ground game. Multiple opponents like Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori and Khamzat Chimaev have all exposed Holland for his weak ground game. With Chiesa at +125, another underdog will hit the card.
