It’s time to release our UFC 291 predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC 291 odds, let’s get on with it by providing our Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira pick and prediction.
Editor Note: This fight was canceled after Pereira missed weight by three pounds.
Stephen Thompson will take on Michel Pereira as a -185 favorite. After losing two straight to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad, Thompson defeated Kevin Holland with a knockout in his most recent fight. On the other side, Pereira rides a five-fight winning streak capped off by a split decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
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UFC 291 Predictions: Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira Pick
Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira Odds
Stephen Thompson: -185 | Michel Pereira: +150
Stephen Thompson comes from a kickboxing background and lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.04. He has a major weakness on the ground, evidenced by his 64% takedown defense. Burns and Muhammad combined for 10 takedowns against Thompson and controlled him for over 18 minutes. While this should not be as much of a threat against Pereira, it is the blueprint to defeating Thompson. Now 40 years old, Thompson has a 17-6 record with eight knockout wins.
Michel Pereira comes into this fight with an interesting resume. At 29 years old, Pereira somehow has a professional record of 28-11 with two no contests. He has developed a well-rounded game to this point with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Karate. Pereira lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.78.
He also averages 1.58 takedowns per bout and 94% takedown defense on the comeback. Of his 28 wins, Pereira has 10 knockouts and seven submission victories to this point. It should be noted that Pereira has a much weaker strength of schedule. Thompson has been fighting the best in the world for nearly 10 years while Pereira’s best wins are Ponzinibbio, Andre Fialho and Danny Roberts.
Perhaps the toughest fight to handicap thus far, this fight could come down to Pereira’s ability to get Thompson to the mat. Thompson showed some improvements in his takedown defense against Holland, making this easier said than done. With this being a massive step up in competition, Thompson will be the official pick. However, the confidence level is not the highest with this selection.
