The UFC travels to Boston for UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling-Sean O’Malley. This stacked card also features Zhang Weili against Amanda Lemos in the co-main event. Ahead of the UFC 292 card, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC 292 picks and predictions for the Sterling-O’Malley card.
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UFC 292 Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
Best UFC 292 Bets: Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson Odds
Brad Katona: -175 | Cody Gibson: +145
In the Ultimate Fighter heavyweight finale, Brad Katona takes on Cody Gibson as a -175 favorite. Katona most recently fought in the UFC in 2019, losing to Hunter Azure via decision. Since then, he won four straight regional fights. Gibson last fought in the UFC in 2015, losing to Douglas Silva de Andrade by decision. Since then he has a 7-2 record on the regional circuit.
Katona defeated Carlos Vera and Timur Valiev to punch his ticket to the final. This puts his professional record at 16-2, including his Ultimate Fighter appearances. Within these victories, he only has four finishes, but he has never been knocked out or submitted in his career. Katona seems to have a well-rounded skill set, with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and karate. His only losses in the UFC came to Merab Dvalishvili and Azure. He also has wins over Bryce Mitchell and Kyler Phillips from his first Ultimate Fighter appearance. Inside the Octagon, he lands 3.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.98 himself. On the mat, he averages 1.25 takedowns per bout and defends them at 47%.
Gibson defeated Mando Gutierrez and Rico DiSciullo to earn his chance to fight for the Ultimate Fighter final. He has a 21-8 record when including his Ultimate Fighter bouts, including seven knockouts and four submissions. He has never been knocked out, but he has been submitted four times. Gibson comes from a wrestling background, evidenced by his 1.85 takedowns per bout. He only has 58% takedown defense, but he also faced stiffer UFC competition. He lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.54 himself. Aside from Silva de Andrade, Gibson also lost to Manny Gamburyan and Aljamain Sterling in the UFC. On the regional scene, his losses came up a weight class against Adrian Diaz and against former UFC fighter Ray Borg.
Katona is the more complete athlete, possessing strong skills on the feet and mat. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu should help neutralize Gibson’s wrestling, allowing him to take the fight anywhere. Given that he also has the superior strength on schedule, Katona deserves a long look.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista Odds
Da’Mon Blackshear: +180 | Mario Bautista: -218
Fighting for the second time in eight days, Da’Mon Blackshear takes on Mario Bautista as an +185 underdog. Just last week, Blackshear submitted Jose Johnson in the first round with the third twister submission in UFC history. Bautista currently rides a four-fight winning streak after submitting Guido Cannetti in March of this year.
Blackshear now boasts a 14-5-1 professional record with a pair of knockouts and nine submissions. He excels on the ground, averaging 1.76 takedowns per bout. He has been outwrestled at times, evidenced by his 54% takedown defense, and on the feet he leaves a little to be desired. Blackshear lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.68. He has been outstruck in two of his four UFC performances to date. He will face a completely different opponent this week after battling a pure striker in Johnson eight days ago.
Bautista comes from a wrestling background and has a 12-2 professional record, featuring three knockouts and six submissions. Inside the Octagon, Bautista lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.73. On the mat, he lands 2.91 takedowns per bout while defending them at 62%. His only two losses to date came against Cory Sandhagen and Trevin Jones.
Bautista has faced the superior level of competition and has the ground skills to neutralize the strengths of Blackshear. Even at -218, Bautista is the sharp side of this bout.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh Odds
Austin Hubbard: -175 | Kurt Holobaugh: +150
In the Ultimate Fighter finale, Austin Hubbard takes on Kurt Holobaugh as a -175 favorite in the men’s lightweight division. After getting cut from the UFC following a 2021 loss to Vinc Pichel, Hubbard has now rattled off two straight wins on the regional scene. Similarly, Holobaugh dropped his most recent UFC fight to Thiago Moises before winning a pair of regional fights.
Hubbard knocked off Aaron McKenzie and Roosevelt Roberts to punch his ticket to the finale. Hubbard has a wrestling background and lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.97. On the mat, he averages 1.35 takedowns and 63% takedown defense. He boasts a 15-6 professional record, featuring five knockouts and a pair of submissions. Typically, Hubbard looks to assert his ground game and control opponents in greasy decision victories.
Holobaugh knocked off Lee Hammond and Jason Knight to earn his spot in the finale. He has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and within the UFC he lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.28. He also lands 0.97 takedowns per bout and 45% takedown defense. Holobaugh never earned a victory in the UFC, but he faced a strong level of competition, losing to Raoni Barcelos, Shane Burgos and Moises. Now 19-7 in his career, Holobaugh has seven knockouts and nine submission victories.
Holobaugh has the more difficult strength of schedule. His submission game should also neutralize some of the wrestling from Hubbard, and since he is the more active fighter, Holobaugh should also have an easier time winning minutes in this matchup. At +150, taking a shot on Holobaugh makes sense.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz Odds
Karine Silva: -175 | Maryna Moroz: +145
In the women’s flyweight division, Maryna Moroz takes on Karine Silva as a +145 underdog in a rematch from 2014. The first bout ended in a submission victory for Moroz in the first round, but both fighters have made significant strides since. After winning on the Dana White’s Contender Series, Silva has two straight victories, including submitting Ketlen Souza back in June. Moroz lost her most recent bout against Jennifer Maia via decision in November of last year.
Moroz has a boxing background, but she only has one knockout among her 11 professional wins. She actually has six submission wins, speaking to the developments in her game. Moroz has never been finished in any of her four losses. Within the UFC, she lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.36. On the mat, she averages 0.69 takedowns per bout while defending them at 47%. Eight of her 10 UFC fights have gone to decision.
Silva has a 16-4 professional record with nine knockouts and seven submissions. Among her losses, she has been knocked out once and submitted twice, with only one of her 20 fights reaching the judges. Silva lands 2.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.43. She only has 35% striking defense, but all three of her UFC fights finished early. She also lands 2.24 takedowns per bout while defending at 0%. Again, this is a small sample, but Silva will often invite ground attacks to work her submission game. She embodies the “kill or be killed” philosophy.
Since their first fight, Moroz has fought more difficult competition, only losing to the top of the division. She also has the weapons to best Silva wherever this fight plays out. As long as she can avoid the early submissions, Moroz should take home a victory.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva Odds
Andrea Lee: +275 | Natalia Silva: -345
Keeping it in the women’s flyweight division, Andrea Lee fights Natalia Silva as a +275 underdog. Coming off two straight losses, Lee dropped her most recent fight to Maycee Barber via split decision back in March. Conversely, Silva has rattled off three straight wins, capped off with a knockout of Victoria Leonardo on May 20.
Lee has a kickboxing background, but she has developed a well-rounded skill set to this point. She currently has a 13-7 professional record with three knockouts and five submission victories. Inside the Octagon, she lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.59. She has excellent 64% striking defense, giving her the advantage on the feet in many matchups. On the mat, she lands 2.04 takedowns per bout and defends them at 54%. While she lands takedowns, Lee has been outwrestled and controlled numerous times in the UFC.
Silva is the younger fighter and has a 15-5 professional record. She boasts five knockouts and seven submission victories. Silva has been knocked out once and submitted twice, but she has not lost since 2017, which came against Marina Rodriguez. Now 3-0 in the UFC, Silva lands 5.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 1.90. On the mat, she averages 1.02 takedowns per bout and 92% takedown defense.
To this point, Lee fought the tougher competition, fighting to split-decision losses in three of her last five defeats. Lee’s kickboxing background should give her an edge on the feet. While Silva has solid takedown defense on paper, it has yet to be tested against the superior fighters within this division. With such long odds in this fight, taking a shot on the underdog Lee makes sense.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert Odds
Andre Petroski: -250 | Gerald Meerschaert: +200
Moving to the men’s middleweight division, Andre Petroski takes on Gerald Meerschaert as a -250 favorite. Now 4-0 in the UFC, Petroski most recently defeated Wellington Turman via unanimous decision in November of last year. Conversely, Meerschaert has traded wins and losses of late. Last time out, he lost to Joe Pyfer via knockout in April of this year.
Petroski is 10-2 in his professional and has a college wrestling background, but he has four wins by knockout and another four by submission. In his losses, he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece, only leaving one fight to the judges. Within the Octagon, Petroski lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.28. His wrestling background appears in his 5.43 takedowns per bout, which paces the slate, and he defends takedowns at 75%, but he has only faced four attempts in his career. This matchup presents a tough stylistic matchup for Petroski against ground specialist Meerschaert.
Meerschaert will make the UFC walk for the 19th time. He has an impressive 35-16 professional record with six knockouts and 27 submissions. In his losses, he has been knocked out four times and submitted eight. Of his 41 fights, only six have reached the judges scorecards. Within the UFC, he lands 3.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.47. Meerschaert primarily uses his striking to set up takedowns, where he averages 2.12 per bout. He only defends takedowns at 27%, but he welcomes ground attacks where he can work his submissions.
Meerschaert’s elite ground game should neutralize the wrestling of Petroski. Petroski also lacks high-end experience within the UFC, where Meerschaert has lived over the last 10 years. Seeing Meerschaert at a +200 price provides enough value to take a shot on the underdog.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin Odds
Gregory Rodrigues: -350 | Denis Tiuliulin: +275
Back to the men’s middleweight division, Gregory Rodrigues takes on Denis Tiuliulin as a -350 favorite. Rodrigues has a 4-3 UFC record after suffering a knockout loss to Brunno Ferreira back in January. Similarly, Tiuliulin lost his most recent bout via submission at the hands of JunYong Park in February of this year.
Rodrigues has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he has a black belt. At 13-5 overall, Rodrigues has eight wins by knockout and another three via submission. In his losses, he has been knocked out three times. Rodrigues lands 6.09 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.82, and on the mat he lands 2.2 takedowns per bout and defends them at 100%. While the recent knockout loss to Ferreira raises durability concerns, Rodrigues has stood up to solid UFC competition to date.
Tiuliulin has a 10-7 professional record. Nine of his victories have come by way of knockout, but he has been finished five times. In the UFC, Tiuliulin lands 5.35 significant strikes per minute, but he absorbs 6.07 due to poor 41% striking defense. Tiuliulin has never landed a takedown in the UFC, but he defends them at 72%. With that said, he has been submitted four times, including in each of his two UFC losses. With Rodrigues’ grappling pedigree, Tiuliulin will be at a severe disadvantage on the mat.
All in all, Tiuliulin’s only UFC victory came over low-level fighter Jamie Pickett. Rodrigues certainly has the advantage on the mat, and his recent striking performances should give him an additional edge on the feet. While -350 is a long price, it is appropriate. For those looking for a better price, check out the prop market for a cheaper price on a submission later in the week.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares Odds
Chris Weidman: +210 | Brad Tavares: -275
Making his triumphant return from a gruesome leg injury, Chris Weidman takes on Brad Tavares as a +210 underdog. Weidman has not fought since April of 2021. On top of the injury and subsequent layoff, Weidman is 2-6 in his last eight fights. Tavares also comes off two straight losses, most recently falling to Bruno Silva via knockout in April of this year.
Weidman has a high-level wrestling background. He lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14. On the mat, he lands 3.92 takedowns per bout and has 65% takedown defense. Now 15-6 in his career, Weidman has six knockouts and four submission victories, but he has been knocked out in all six of his defeats.
Tavares has an 18-9 professional record with five knockouts and a pair of submissions. He has been knocked out four times, raising durability concerns as well. Tavares lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.02. On the mat, he averages 0.85 takedowns per bout and defends them at 80%.
While both fighters appear past their prime, both have advantages in this bout. Weidman should have a clear wrestling advantage, should he decide to use it. This fight should be competitive on the feet, but handicapping Weidman after the long layoff is tricky. With that said, the wrestling edge should be enough for Weidman to win rounds and potentially pay off his +210 underdog price.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz Odds
Marlon Vera: -190 | Pedro Munhoz: +155
Heading to the men’s bantamweight division, Marlon Vera takes on Pedro Munhoz as a -190 favorite. Vera most recently competed in March, where he lost a decision at the hands of Cory Sandhagen. Conversely, Munhoz knocked off Chris Gutierrez in a unanimous decision back in April after going 0-2-1 in his previous three fights.
Vera has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he has a black belt. With that said, he has developed a complete game since entering the UFC. Vera lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.02. He sometimes starts slow, explaining some of the negative striking differential. On the mat, he lands 0.61 takedowns per bout while defending them at 69%. To date, Vera has a 20-8-1 professional record, losing only to Sandhagen, Jose Aldo and Song Yadong in the last five years. Within his fights, he has eight knockouts and eight submissions while never getting finished.
Munhoz also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a well-rounded skill set. Munhoz lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.9. On the mat, he averages 0.51 takedowns per bout and 81% takedown defense. Now 20-7 in his career, Munhoz has five knockout victories and eight submissions. Like Vera, Munhoz has never been finished.
Both fighters have faced nothing but elite competition of late. With that said, Munhoz has fallen short more often, with a 2-4-1 record in his last seven fights. He should have an edge in output, but Vera has the superior skills at this point in their careers. As long as he avoids a slow start, Vera should earn the victory.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry Odds
Neil Magny: +285 | Ian Garry: -360
Originally scheduled to face Geoff Neal, Ian Garry will now take on late replacement Neil Magny as a -360 favorite. Garry has a perfect 5-0 record within the UFC, most recently knocking out Daniel Rodriguez in the first round back in May. Magny also comes off a win, defeating Phil Rowe by split decision in June of this year.
Garry has a black belt in judo, but he continues to add skills at just 25 years of age. He has a perfect 12-0 record with seven knockouts and one submission. Within the UFC, Garry lands 6.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.09. He only lands 0.29 takedowns per bout, but he defends them at 63%. When he has been taken down, Garry generally works back to his feet with urgency. This will be Garry’s toughest test to date, but he has answered every question so far.
Magny has a 28-10 professional record and a wrestling background, earning seven knockouts and four submissions. He has been knocked out twice and submitted six times. However, almost all of these losses came to the top of the division. His last two defeats came at the hands of Gilbert Burns and Shavkat Rakhmonov. In the cage, he lands 3.52 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.25. He also scores 2.3 takedowns per bout while defending them at 56%.
Magny has faced much tougher competition. However, he has fallen short against most of these opponents. With that said, Magny should have the wrestling edge. Garry has a striking advantage, but the -360 price leaves plenty to be desired. Even with the short-notice aspect of this fight working against Magny, sprinkling the underdog at +285 deserves consideration.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos Odds
Zhang Weili: -350 | Amanda Lemos: +260
With the women’s strawweight title on the line, Zhang Weili defends her belt against Amanda Lemos as a -350 favorite. Zhang most recently defeated Carla Esparza via submission, beginning her second reign as undisputed champion. Lemos punched her championship opportunity with a knockout win over Marina Rodriguez in November of last year.
Now a two-time champion, Zhang lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.06. She has also added a solid ground game to her arsenal, landing 1.97 takedowns per bout and 66% takedown defense on the other side. Most recently, she defended three of four takedowns from an elite wrestler in Carla Esparza while surrendering just 55 seconds of control time. Zhang has a 23-3 professional record, losing only to Rose Namajunas since her professional debut.
Lemos is one of the most lethal strikers in this division. She has a 13-2-1 professional record with eight knockout wins and three submissions. In the UFC, she lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.97. She also averages 1.12 takedowns per bout and 81% takedown defense. Now 7-2 in the Octagon, Lemos has only lost to Jessica Andrade since her UFC debut.
All in all, Zhang has a slew of advantages. She is the more technical striker and should be able to avoid the power of Lemos. She also cleaned up most of the ground deficiencies from earlier in her career. Finally, she has been competing against the top of the division for years now, while Lemos has fought up and down the roster. Even at -350, Zhang deserves to come in as a heavy favorite.
Best UFC 292 Bets: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley Odds
Aljamain Sterling: -275 | Sean O’Malley: +210
Finishing off a brilliant night of fights, Aljamain Sterling defends his bantamweight title against Sean O’Malley as a -275 favorite. Now defending his title for the fourth time, Sterling most recently beat Henry Cejudo via split decision in May. O’Malley knocked off Petr Yan via split decision in October of last year.
Sterling has a high-level wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, where he has a black belt. In the UFC, he lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.37. On the mat, Sterling lands 2.02 takedowns per bout while defending them at 45%. He will accept takedowns at times to work his elite ground game, though he has sharpened additional wrestling skills throughout his career. Most recently, Sterling handled the elite wrestling of Cejudo, defending five of his eight takedown attempts. Sterling has a 23-3 professional record with three knockouts and eight submissions.
O’Malley has a diverse striking background. He lands 7.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.54. O’Malley also lands 0.45 takedowns per bout but defends them at just 60%. Now 16-1 in his career, O’Malley has 11 knockouts and one submission to date. While he lacks the same experience against elite competition, O’Malley held his own against former champion Yan last time out.
Sterling has a massive edge on the ground in this fight. He also has an unorthodox striking style that could give O’Malley problems. O’Malley still has a striking advantage, but he will have his work cut out for him in order to keep this standing. With Sterling’s massive ground advantage and elite level of competition, the current champion should retain his title.
