The UFC travels to Australia for UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland. This 293 also features Tai Tuivasa taking on Alexander Volkov in the co-main event. Leading up to UFC 293, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to sort through the sharpest sportsbooks and find the best UFC bets and get recommendations as to where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport as well as tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s preview UFC 293 picks and predictions for the Adesanya-Strickland card.
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UFC 293 Picks, Preview & Odds Predictions
Best UFC 293 Picks: Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie Odds
Kevin Jousset: -160 | Kiefer Crosbie: +135
In a battle of newcomers in the welterweight division, Kevin Jousset takes on Kiefer Crosbie as a -160 favorite. Most recently, Jousset knocked out Kitt Campbell back in May. Crosbie also landed a knockout over former UFC fighter Alex Oliveira in April of this year.
Jousset has an 8-2 professional record featuring four knockout victories. He has only been finished one time in his career, but that came against Jack Della Maddalena due to a doctor’s stoppage. Notably, Jousset is one of a few Israel Adesanya training partners on this card. Jousset’s level of competition has been up and down to this point, but the location of this card helped him receive a contract.
Crosbie has a 10-3 professional record with five knockouts and two submissions. He has been knocked out and submitted once, but he has also faced significantly more difficult competition. Crosbie trains with Conor McGregor and does his best work standing.
This is a regional fight held under the banner of the UFC. Neither fighter has much in terms of quality wins to this point, but in what should be a standing affair, sprinkling the underdog in Crosbie makes sense.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Kiefer Crosbie +135
Best UFC 293 Picks: Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda Odds
Shane Young: -165 | Gabriel Miranda: +135
Moving to the men’s featherweight division, Shane Young takes on Gabriel Miranda as a -165 favorite. The loser of three straight, Young most recently dropped a decision to Blake Bilder in February of this year. Similarly, Miranda lost his most recent fight against Benoit Saint Denis by knockout almost exactly one year ago.
At 13-7, Young has six knockouts and four submissions to his name. He has only been finished once, which came against Ludovit Klein and started his current three-fight losing streak. Young does not have a win over a fighter currently on the UFC’s roster. Another City Kickboxing fighter, Young lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.51 behind 52% striking defense. Young is not much of a grappler, but he defends takedowns at 65%. He generally avoids getting controlled and can work back to the feet, but this is not a strength to his game.
Miranda has a 16-6 professional record with one knockout and 15 submissions. In his losses, he has been knocked out twice. Miranda has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, evidenced by those submission numbers. In his lone UFC appearance, Miranda was out-landed 42-20, giving up one takedown to Saint Denis. Miranda only landed one of three takedowns, but he should have an easier path to the takedown.
The level of competition is questionable for Young despite the longer tenure in the UFC. He will also be giving up a clear advantage to Miranda on the ground. For that reason, Miranda +135 will be the official play.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Gabriel Miranda +135
Best UFC 293 Picks: Blood Diamond vs. Charlie Radtke Odds
Blood Diamond: +200 | Charlie Radtke: -250
Moving to the men’s welterweight division, Blood Diamond battles Charlie Radtke as a +200 underdog. Now 0-2 in the UFC, Diamond lost to Orion Cosce via decision in July of last year. Meanwhile, Radtke makes his UFC debut on a four-fight winning streak after defeating Raheam Forest by submission back in April.
Another City Kickboxing fighter, Diamond has a high-level kickboxing background. Inside the UFC, he lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.04 behind 43% striking defense. Despite his striking advantages in most fights, Diamond has no grappling game. He defends takedowns at 69%, but opponents generally find ways to put him on the mat over time. Jeremiah Wells immediately submitted Diamond after landing a takedown. Cosce landed three takedowns and controlled Diamond for over nine minutes.
Radtke has a 7-3 professional record featuring three knockouts and two submissions. In his losses, he has been knocked out just once, which came against Bellator fighter Justin Montalvo. His other losses came against Bellator alum Christopher Gonzalez and UFC veteran Austin Hubbard. With that said, he does not have many quality wins and generally fails against a step up in competition. Radtke does come from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and should be able to land takedowns.
This looks like another poor matchup for Diamond against an opponent with ground credentials. Radtke has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and should overpower Diamond once this fight hits the mat. As long as Radtke can avoid big shots on the feet, he should get the victory at -250.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Charlie Radtke -250
Best UFC 293 Picks: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones Odds
Nasrat Haqparast: -400 | Landon Quinones: +300
In the men’s lightweight division, Nasrat Haqparast takes on Landon Quinones as a -400 favorite. Haqparast had his last two fights canceled, but he is coming off a win over John Makdessi last September. Quinones, the UFC newcomer most recently defeated Yemi Oduwole in Titan FC in November of last year. However, he also fought on the Ultimate Fighter, where he was submitted by Jason Knight in the opening round.
Haqparast has a kickboxing background, and he boasts nine knockout victories in his 14 career wins. In his losses, Haqparast has been knocked out once and submitted twice. Now 3-3 in his last six, Haqparast has failed to take the next step in his UFC career, losing to Drew Dober, Dan Hooker and Bobby Green in that span. He lands 5.06 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon while absorbing 4.72 behind 65% striking defense. Haqparast rarely looks to grapple, but he defends takedowns at 78% overall.
Quinones has a 7-1 professional record with five knockouts and one submission. He prefers to stand and strike with opponents, which should set this fight up as a standing affair. He has an incredibly weak strength of schedule, explaining the wide odds in this contest.
It seems the UFC simply feels bad for Haqparast after the numerous cancellations. Outside of a random strike clipping Haqparast, Quinones has few paths to victory. For those scared off by the -400 odds, look to Haqparast by knockout later in the week.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Nasrat Haqparast -400, Look at Knockout Props Later in Week
Best UFC 293 Picks: Jamie Mullarkey vs. John Makdessi Odds
Jamie Mullarkey: -250 | John Makdessi: +200
Sticking with the men’s lightweight division, Jamie Mullarkey fights John Makdessi as a -250 favorite. Mullarkey dropped his most recent bout against Muhammad Naimov via knockout back in June of this year. Similarly, Makdessi lost to Nasrat Haqparast in September of last year.
Mullarkey has a 16-6 professional record featuring 10 knockouts and three submissions. Among his losses, Mullarkey has been knocked out four times, including in each of his last two losses. Mullarkey has a well-rounded skill set, landing and absorbs exactly 4.20 significant strikes per minute behind 54% striking defense. He also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, evidenced by his 2.91-takedown average per bout. Mullarkey defends takedowns at 75%, rounding out a solid ground game.
Makdessi has an 18-8 professional record featuring nine knockouts. Among his losses, he has been knocked out twice and submitted once. Makdessi has a kickboxing and karate background and lands 5.52 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.04 with 69% striking defense. Makdessi has never landed a takedown in the UFC, but he defends them at 85%. It should be noted that he will cede four inches in height and six inches in reach to Mullarkey.
Well past his prime, Makdessi draws tough competition, as Mullarkey has advantages on the ground and with his length. Makdessi likely has the striking edge, but the size of Mullarkey should neutralize these advantages. Makdessi deserves to come in as a -250 favorite.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Jamie Mullarkey -250
Best UFC 293 Picks: Jack Jenkins vs. Chepe Mariscal Odds
Jack Jenkins: -210 | Chepe Mariscal: +175
Moving to the men’s featherweight division, Jack Jenkins takes on Chepe Mariscal as a -210 favorite. Now 2-0 in the UFC, Jenkins most recently defeated Jamall Emmers via split decision in June of this year. Mariscal also won his last bout against Trevor Peek back in June, giving him a victory in his UFC debut.
Jenkins has a 12-2 professional record with five knockouts and three submissions. His only two losses both came via submission from earlier days in his career. Jenkins has a diverse mixed martial arts background. He lands 4.34 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.79 behind 60% striking defense. Jenkins also averages 3.03 takedowns per bout and has 81% takedown defense.
Mariscal has a 14-6 professional record, including six knockouts and three submissions. Among his losses, he has been knocked out three times. Mariscal also has a diverse mixed martial arts background. In his first UFC bout, he out-landed Peek 71-51 while also earning four takedowns. With that said, this was one of the sloppiest performances in recent memory. His level of competition is actually pretty good, making him a tough evaluation.
Jenkins is the superior prospect. With that said, this line might have moved too far in his favor. Mariscal has gone to war with UFC veterans like Youssef Zalal, Pat Sabatini and Bryce Mitchell in the past, so throwing a dart on him deserves consideration.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Chepe Mariscal +175
Best UFC 293 Picks: Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Un Jung Odds
Carlos Ulberg: -300 | Da Un Jung: +230
In the men’s light heavyweight division, Carlos Ulberg takes on Da Un Jung as a -300 favorite. Now 4-1 in the UFC, Ulberg will look to extend his four-fight winning streak after knocking out Ihor Potieria in May of this year. Conversely, Jung will look to end a two-fight winning streak after losing to Devin Clark via split decision back in February.
Primarily a striker, Ulberg has a boxing and kickboxing background. He is 8-1 in his career with six knockouts, and his only loss came against Kennedy Nzechukwu via knockout back in 2021. In the UFC, he lands 8.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.45. Ulberg is not much of a threat on the ground, but he has defended takedowns at 100%. It should be noted that he has fought a bunch of bums in the UFC, potentially inflating this line.
Jung has a 15-4 professional record with 11 knockouts and two submissions. Among his losses, he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. In the Octagon, he lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.53. He also lands 2.1 takedowns on average with 80% takedown defense. While these stats look lackluster, Jung has fought the superior competition, including Clark and Dustin Jacoby in his last two appearances.
It will be interesting to see Ulberg take on an actual UFC fighter. To this point, the UFC has treated him favorably, and the same cannot be said for Jung. With a well-rounded skill set on the Jung side, playing the underdog at +230 makes sense.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Da Un Jung +230
Best UFC 293 Picks: Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj Odds
Tyson Pedro: -105 | Anton Turkalj: -115
Sticking with the men’s light heavyweight division, Tyson Pedro takes on Anton Turkalj as a -105 underdog. Pedro lost his most recent fight against Modestas Bukauskas via unanimous decision in February of this year. Likewise, Turkalj will look to book a win after losing to Vitor Petrino by decision last time out.
Pedro has a 9-4 professional record featuring four knockouts and five submissions. In his losses, he has been knocked out and submitted once apiece. Notably, Pedro took a massive layoff between 2018 and 2022 and has a 2-1 record since. However, he defeated weak competition in Isaac Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker. Pedro lands 2.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.49. He also averages 0.97 takedowns per bout and defends them at 52%. All that said, he has not rattled off a quality win since 2017.
Turkalj has an 8-2 record featuring five knockouts and two submissions. He has now dropped his last two fights, but Jailton Almeida and Petrino are tougher competition. Turkalj has a strong grappling background, evidenced by his 6.97 takedowns per bout. Interestingly, he only defends takedowns at 16%, as he welcomes ground attacks. On the feet, he lands 1.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.18. This could prove problematic in future fights.
This is a relatively low-level light heavyweight fight. Turkalj has fought the tougher competition of late despite coming in as the greener fighter, so play Turkalj’s wrestling advantage here.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Anton Turkalj -115
Best UFC 293 Picks: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane Odds
Justin Tafa: -250 | Austen Lane: +200
Justin Tafa takes on Austen Lane as a -250 favorite in a heavyweight rematch. The first fight ended in a no-contest after an immediate eye poke. Prior to the no-contest, Tafa defeated Parker Porter in February. Similarly, Lane knocked out Richard Jacobi in his second stint on the Contender Series.
Tafa has a kickboxing background, which has helped him get six knockout wins. At 6-3 in his career, Tafa has only been knocked out one time. However, he has a suspect record, with losses to Jared Vanderaa, Carlos Felipe and Yorgan de Castro. Tafa lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.95 behind 49% striking defense. He defends takedowns at 100%, but he has yet to face an elite wrestler in this division.
Lane is a former NFL player making a UFC run at 35 years old. He has a 12-3 professional record with 11 knockouts and one submission. Of his three losses, he has been knocked out three times, which came against questionable competition. Lane lands 4.33 significant strikes while absorbing just 1.67. However, he has never fought out of the first round in the UFC, giving him a miniscule sample to work with. It should be noted that Lane will have a massive six-inch height and reach advantage.
Tafa will have the technical edges if he can close the distance against Lane. Lane is also the older fighter by six years. This fight does not approach the top of the card, but Tafa is the lean.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Justin Tafa -250
Best UFC 293 Picks: Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos Odds
Manel Kape: -380 | Felipe dos Santos: +260
In the men’s flyweight division, Manel Kape finally gets a fight after repeated cancellations. Kape will take on Felipe dos Santos as a -380 favorite. Kape most recently defeated David Dvorak by decision back in December, putting him on a three-fight winning streak. Dos Santos has a perfect 7-0 record. However, this will be a major step up in competition as dos Santos makes his UFC debut.
Now 18-6 in his career, Kape has a diverse mixed martial arts background. In his 18 wins, he has 11 knockouts and five submissions. He has been submitted twice but not since 2017. He lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.92. Kape also averages 0.56 takedowns per bout defending them at 69%. Generally, his takedown defense holds up against the better fighters within the division.
The UFC originally scheduled dos Santos to fight on the Contender Series this season, but this cancellation opened the door into the UFC. At 7-0, dos Santos has two knockouts and three submission victories. Previously fighting in LFA, dos Santos has a weak level of competition to this point. While the UFC clearly sees some potential, fighting Kape on short notice might be too much too soon.
All in all, seeing Kape as just a -380 favorite comes as a slight surprise. A former champion in RIZIN, Kape has faced significantly more difficult competition behind a more diverse skill set. Laying -380 looks like the best way to play this fight.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Manel Kape -380
Best UFC 293 Picks: Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov Odds
Tai Tuivasa: +175 | Alexander Volkov: -210
For UFC 293’s co-main event, Tai Tuivasa takes on Alexander Volkov in the heavyweight division as a +175 underdog. Now on a two-fight losing streak, Tuivasa most recently lost to Sergei Pavlovich in December of last year. Conversely, Volkov has won two straight, most recently knocking out Alexander Romanov in March of this year.
Tuivasa has a 14-5 professional record featuring 13 knockouts. Among his losses, Tuivasa has been knocked out thrice and submitted once. Concerningly, he has been knocked out against Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane in his last two times out. Tuivasa is a knockout artist who lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.46 behind 45% striking defense. Much of this negative differential came against Gane, where he was outstruck 110-29. Tuivasa has also struggled against wrestlers, defending takedowns at just 52%.
Volkov also has a striking background, with a 36-10 professional record that includes 24 knockouts and three submissions. Among his losses, Volkov has been knocked out twice and submitted three times. However, almost all of his recent losses have come against the elite fighters within the division. In the UFC, Volkov lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.00 and adds 0.51 takedowns per bout while defending them at 73%. It should also be noted that Volkov has a five-inch reach and height advantage over Tuivasa.
Tuivasa’s striking defense raises major questions in a fight that projects to play out on the feet. Volkov has also been able to knock off other power punchers within the division like Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Even as a -210 favorite, Volkov deserves consideration. For those looking to shave off some of those odds, look to Volkov by knockout later in the week.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Alexander Volkov -210, Look to Knockout Props Later in Week
Best UFC 293 Picks: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Odds
Israel Adesanya: -600 | Sean Strickland: +425
Headlining UFC 293, Israel Adesanya takes on Sean Strickland for the middleweight title as a -600 favorite. Adesanya most recently defeated Alex Pereira in April to become a two-time champion after previously losing to Pereira in November. Strickland enters this fight on relatively short notice after knocking out Abus Magomedov back on July 1. With a lack of available title challengers, Strickland has now been expedited to the title.
Adesanya has an elite kickboxing background and a 24-2 professional record featuring 16 knockout victories. Within the Octagon, he lands 3.94 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.88 behind 57% striking defense. While he is not a threat on the ground, Adesanya’s 77% takedown defense generally holds up within the division. To this point, only Pereira and Jan Blachowicz have defeated Adesanya, and the Blachowicz fight came at light heavyweight.
Strickland has a 27-5 professional record with 11 knockouts and four submissions. In his five losses, Strickland has been knocked out twice. Strickland has a diverse mixed martial arts background, but he is also 2-2 in his last four fights. Those losses came against Pereira and Jared Cannonier. In the UFC, he lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.28 behind his division-leading 62% striking defense. Strickland also averages 1.00 takedown per bout and has 84% takedown defense. Notably, Strickland has held wrestling advantages in the past and declined to use them. He technically has a path to victory in this area, but much of this comes down to his pre-fight game plan and ability to implement it.
Best UFC 293 Pick: Israel Adesanya -600
