Most eyes for UFC 294 will be on the on Makhachev-Volkanovski and Usman-Chimaev, but there are a couple of other great spots for UFC 294 bets. For Lindy’s locks this weekend, I am taking a look at a couple of props on fights further down the card and make predictions for UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2. Let’s dive in.
UFC 294 Predictions: Peek-Yahya, Nurmagomedov-Gafurov
Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek
When the betting odds opened for Trevor Peek-Mohammad Yahya across the industry, Peek was available as an even-money dog. Almost instantly, that line has shifted to the -165/-175 range in favor of Peek where it currently sits. And while I’m pretty sure Peek is nothing more than a one-dimensional fighter and have no interest in backing him at the current numbers, his outrageous power for the lightweight division has me very intrigued at booking the under on 1.5 rounds.
To round out discussion on the Peek side, he’s coming off the first professional loss of his career back in June against newcomer Jose Mariscal. It exposed a lot of the issues we assumed might be there for Peek despite wins in his first two UFC fights: Poor technical striking, low fight IQ and atrocious cardio. But the Mariscal loss doesn’t look as egregious in hindsight, as Mariscal handed Jack Jenkins his first professional loss since 2018 at UFC 293 in another dominant performance. This has me convinced that Peek, who has a first-round finish in six of his eight professional wins, should go right back to finding early success against more targetable opposition.
And targetable is exactly what Yahya screams to me. He’s a UFC debutant who will be fighting in front of his home crowd, but competition he’s faced on the regional scene leaves a lot to be desired. He does have the drastic cardio advantage based on his past two fights going five rounds and the fact that he looked good for the duration of those low-level wins. But reverting back to a three-rounder for this one may force him into some early exchanges with the power of Peek.
Instead of paying the full freight to back Peek north of -165, I strongly prefer taking the under of 1.5 rounds at -130, as this fight extending to the third or a decision likely means the underdog won anyways. Plus, you get the extra outs in the event Yahya lands a big shot of his own, which is never a bad thing against someone like Peek who leaves himself exposed time and time again when he loads up the right hand. Wrap all of this together, the under of 1.5 rounds in this fight is my favorite bet of the entire UFC 294 card.
UFC 294 Prediction: Trevor Peek/Mohammad Yahya Under 1.5 Rounds -130 (LOCK) at DraftKings
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov
My favorite thing in MMA is when you find a “square peg, square hole” betting opportunity, meaning that stylistically there is one major hole in a fighter’s game that is the strength of his opponents. And that is exactly what we have here with Muin Gafurov taking on Said Nurmagomedov, as Gafurov has some noticeable leaks in his ground game that haven’t spelled disaster yet in his professional career but very well could if Nurmagomedov can get him to the ground.
More specifically, Nurmagomedov has one of the best guillotine chokes in the bantamweight division. It’s the method of victory he’s utilized in two of his past three UFC wins, and while this fight is more likely to hit the judges’ scorecards than not due to the low output nature of these fighters, the +250 price on a Nurmagomedov submission is simply too good to pass up. That’s because Gafurov, while he likes to take fights to the ground, puts himself in very disadvantageous situations that an experienced submission specialist like Nurmagomedov could easily take advantage of.
The only reason this play isn’t getting locked by me: Nurmagomedov has just a 16% takedown accuracy in the UFC, so it will most likely be Gafurov who has to initiate some of the grappling. But if he doesn’t go to the ground, I don’t see him winning this fight on the feet against the rangier Nurmagomedov, to whom he’ll be giving up two inches of reach with noticeably worse striking defense. It’s a risk Gafurov has to be willing to take, meaning I’ll be willing to take a risk on Said by sub.
UFC 294 Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Submission +250 (LIKE) at DraftKings
