UFC 296: Edwards-Covington Odds & Picks: Bets for Tony Ferguson, Bryce Mitchell & More

The UFC returns with another exciting pay-per-view card on Saturday, its last before the new calendar year. With no more MMA on tap until mid-January’s UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2, be sure to get your action down before the near-month hiatus. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC 296: Edwards-Covington, including a bet on veteran Tony Ferguson. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC 296 Odds & Picks: Bets for Tony Ferguson, Bryce Mitchell & More

UFC 296: Edwards-Covington | Emmett-Mitchell Pick

Mitchell usually wins UFC fights in just one way: he takes you to the ground and lays on you until the bell sounds. In his four most recent victories, Emmett has controlled his opponent on the ground for over 42 minutes of a possible 60, three of which he only attempted one submission combined. Averaging 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, his pace is relentless. Emmett amassed six decision victories in his time in the UFC, five of which he has won on the judges’ scorecards by four or more points. Adding in his submission victory, 85% of his victories covered the 3.5-point spread set by the books.

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Emmett could be in for a long night, as he has struggled to stop the takedown, only successfully defending 41% of the time. While there is only a small sample of fights in which Emmett has faced a wrestle-heavy opponent, his last bout against Ilia Topuria saw him get taken down on each of Topuria’s three attempts. Though his bout against Topuria was five rounds instead of three, Emmett failed to win a round, which is necessary to cover the spread.

He managed to cover the spread in his only other decision loss, but it was an anomalous split decision in which one judge scored the fight in Emmett’s favor despite him landing fifteen fewer significant strikes overall, including 38 fewer to the head, at a rate 14% lower than his opponent’s. UFC judges are certainly known to have bizarre scoring decisions, but if Mitchell is to win as the favorite, in all likelihood he will dominate the majority of the fight on the ground and take it mostly out of the judges’ hands.

Best UFC Emmett-Mitchell Bet & Pick: Mitchell -3.5 -105 on DraftKings

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UFC 296: Edwards-Covington | Pimblett-Ferguson Pick

In his controversial decision victory over Jared Gordon, Paddy employed an interesting defensive technique to confuse his opponent called “leading with his chin.” Jokes aside, Paddy’s deficiencies in striking defense are well documented: he absorbs about 3.5 strikes per minute at a paltry 41% defense rate. This doesn’t tell the entire story, as many of the shots that Gordon landed struck Paddy without so much as a flinch to lessen the impact even slightly.

Ferguson, despite his recent skid, still holds some of the pop in his hands he was known for in his younger days, and despite getting thoroughly outclassed by Bobby Green in his last fight, he still landed some hefty shots to stun Green in the earlier rounds. I’m not sure how much credence we should lend to Ferguson’s six-fight losing streak, as those fights came against the top end of the division and proven veterans. Even with such a poor stretch, Ferguson has produced a knockout win in 22% of his UFC fights, well above the implied odds of 14% given by DraftKings.

Plimbett’s biggest advantage will likely come from his submission grappling, but all evidence points to him keeping the fight on the feet, as he has only attempted eight takedowns in his four bouts, landing only two of them. If both fighters stay upright and Plimbett doesn’t significantly improve his striking defense, Ferguson will have plenty of chances to end the fight in an instant.

Best UFC Pimblett-Ferguson Bet & Pick: Ferguson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +600 at DraftKings

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UFC 296: Edwards-Covington | Rakhmonov-Thompson Pick

One thing we should never question is Wonderboy’s readiness for a long, drawn-out brawl. Out of his 19 UFC fights, 12 have gone to the scorecards for a rate of 63%. With odds for Shavkat to finish Wonderboy by submission sitting at +120, the shortest of the bunch, it appears the books are banking on a vast disparity between the fighters’ grappling abilities. This disparity is somewhat fair, given Shavkat’s proclivity for submissions while in the UFC and Wonderboy’s demonstrated lack of interest in grappling, but it doesn’t account for Wonderboy’s defensive grappling ability. Wonderboy has yet to be submitted while in the UFC despite fighting some of the best grapplers in the division and holds a respectable 69% takedown defense rate.

Wonderboy’s timing and technical prowess on the feet are prominent defensive mechanisms that allow him to defend the takedown by darting away from his opponent’s shots or by landing a well-timed counter. His ability to get up from the ground has been an issue, which could cause him problems in the event of a decision, but his defense against his opponents’ submissions and ground and pound have kept him from getting finished despite long periods of control time.

On the feet, Wonderboy is as competitive as anybody, and he can sustain real damage, as evidenced by his most recent fight with Kevin Holland. While Rakhmonov is a different kind of beast, one who will certainly not high-five Wonderboy throughout the bout and let him up from the ground as Holland did, there should be no question about Wonderboy’s toughness. In his career, Wonderboy has taken 453 significant strikes to the head but only succumbed to a knockout once.

Rakhmonov’s fights have predictably drawn longer as he has taken a step up in competition, with his fight against Neil Magny drawing late into the second round, and his fight against Geoff Neal ending in the last minutes. With the step up even further in competition to a brawler like Wonderboy, the oddsmakers have underestimated the distance to which this fight could go.

Best UFC Rakhmonov-Thompson Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +125 at DraftKings

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UFC 296: Edwards-Covington | Pantoja-Royval Pick

Both Pantoja and Royval possess severe stopping power. They can both finish opponents on the ground or on the feet. Out of his seven UFC fights, Royval has only made it to the third round once, which yielded a decision victory. Pantoja has finished six of his 13 UFC fights with the other seven going to decision. All told, 40% of their combined fights have gone to decision.

One important difference for which each fighter must adjust is the length of the fight. This bout is just Pantoja’s second five-round UFC fight. It’s also Royval’s first. In Pantoja’s first five-rounder, the concern his pace would be too high at the start seemed to come true, as he looked winded in the second round. Heeding his corner’s advice, he put less power into each shot, and with the help of his grappling, he made it the full five rounds and pulled out the victory.

Pantoja should remember the trouble he got himself into the first time and adjust, especially since he looked vulnerable on the feet against Royval in their last fight. The main question is whether Royval will hunt for an early finish and risk his late-round viability. While it’s a small sample, Royval fought two five-round bouts in the Legacy Fighting Alliance. His most recent of the two ended in a first-round submission, with the earlier ending in a decision loss. Combined, the fighters’ three five-round fights have gone to decision twice, well over the 2.5 rounds necessary for us to cash the over.

In all, Royval’s submission-heavy results will be harder to come by in this fight, and if his first loss to Pantoja has taught him anything, Royval should come out with a slower-paced strategy.

Best UFC Pantoja-Royval Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +120 at DraftKings

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UFC 296: Edwards-Covington Pick

It’s hard to put Edwards’ first title fight with Kamaru Usman out of mind. Both his stunning head kick knockout and his inability to stuff Usman’s takedowns have transformed Edwards’ persona from a boring counter-striker who beat his opponents on the cards to an exciting knockout artist with little to no grappling ability. In reality, neither is the full truth, but the evidence from Edwards’ career suggests the former is far closer to reality than the latter.

In his UFC fights, Edwards has procured a decision victory 60 percent of the time with nine in 15 tries. These numbers don’t tell the full story of Edwards’ fights, as one of his TKO victories came with just a second left in a bout he was likely to win by decision. Two of his remaining three finishes (one via submission and one via knockout) came in the final two minutes of the fight. Essentially, all of Edward’s fights have trended heavily toward decisions, save for miraculous last-second finishes.

His counterpart, Covington, is no stranger to decision outcomes. Covington has gone the distance in eight of his 15 UFC fights, with five of the remaining seven finishes coming in the last round of the fight. His cardio and wrestle-heavy approach lends itself well to a longer fight, particularly against the slower-paced Edwards, who only throws around six significant strikes per minute.

Covington’s relentless wrestling, which yields about four takedowns every 15 minutes, combined with Edwards’ struggles against Usman in their first fight, has led some to think this is a stylistically bad matchup for Edwards. However, in his career, Edwards has shown solid takedown defense, sporting a success rate of 69%. In his rematch with Usman, the combination of effective counter-striking and leg kicks to keep the distance helped him stuff eleven of Usman’s 15 attempts.

Interestingly, the counter-heavy method of striking is the same tactic Usman used to neutralize Covington’s wrestling in the rematch. If Edwards can translate this strategy to keep the fight on the feet, he stands a great chance of withstanding Covington’s relatively weaker striking.

Best UFC Edwards-Covington Bet & Pick: Leon Edwards to Win by Decision +150 at DraftKings

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