UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis Odds & Picks: Bets for Du Plessis, Pennington & More

With a heated build-up to UFC 297 — including an intense exchange between the two fighters atop the card — Saturday’s action promises fireworks. We’ll clarify Sean Strickland’s status amongst the middleweight elite, and we’ll kick off the long road to filling Amanda Nunes’ shoes. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis Odds & Picks: Bets for Du Plessis, Pennington & More

Prelim Spotlight for UFC 297 | Charles Jourdain-Sean Woodson Pick

Both Jourdain and Woodson are high-output strikers, landing shots at a clip of 5.71 and 5.41 significant strikes per minute, respectively. However, this has rarely translated in finishes for either side, as they have only combined for a total of five stoppage victories in their eighteen combined UFC fights for a rate of 27.8%.

Their inability to find stoppages relative to the amount of shots they throw likely has to do with the way they mix their shots up and their efficiency to the body and legs. The most extreme example of this in action can be seen in Jourdain’s fight against Andre Ewell, in which he landed 95 significant strikes in the bout for a rate of 6.33 per minute. However, only 42 of these strikes landed to the head, good for around 2.8 head strikes per minute.

While there are less drastic examples for each fighter, leg and body strikes account for around one significant strike per minute in each of their fights. These strikes are certainly helpful strategically, but they aren’t exactly knockout shots, which helps to explain the disparity between the number of shots thrown to knockouts attained.

Neither Jourdain nor Woodson are particularly keen on grappling too often, either. While Jourdain has two submission victories, he only procures 0.10 takedowns every fifteen minutes of fight time.

In total, fourteen of the fighters’ eighteen combined UFC fights have gone past the halfway point of the second round. With the odds for over 2.5 rounds set at -145 for an implied probability of just under 60%, a patient bettor looking for a long fight can find an edge on the over.

Best UFC Jourdain-Woodson Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds -145 at DraftKings

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UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Pick

While this fight marks a decided step up in competition for Evloev, the sportsbooks are favoring him by a comfortable margin. Allen’s well-rounded game and experience in high-level moments may provide bettors willing to buy longer odds with an edge if they ride with him to win by decision.

It’s hard to picture Allen as an underdog to many in the division. With solid striking, well-timed counters and takedown defense, there won’t be many holes for Evloev to exploit. However, neither Allen nor Evloev are known for finishing fights quickly. In their combined eighteen UFC fights, they have gone to the cards fourteen times for a rate of 77.8%. The books anticipate a decision as the most likely outcome, pegging the line at -330 for an implied probability of around 76%.

Allen has won six of his eleven fights by decision with only one loss. Evloev has been an even more prolific decision fighter with all seven of his UFC fights ending in a decision victory, most of which have come in crushing fashion.

I’m surprised that a fighter of Evloev’s caliber hasn’t found a finish in the UFC, particularly when accounting for his rates. He lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute and a stunning 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. A lack of aggression isn’t the reason for Evloev’s inability to finish lesser opponents, which is a concern as he takes a step up in competition.

Evloev’s heavy pressure, particularly takedowns, appears to be the blueprint for beating Allen. In Allen’s fight against Mads Burnell, Allen was controlled for much of the fight. The bout seemed headed for a decision win in Burnell’s favor until Allen secured a guillotine and the victory. This came immediately after a split decision in which Allen gave up 5:38 of control time, though it should be noted he defended eight of twelve takedown attempts and won 30-27 on two of the judges’ scorecards.

To say Allen is a different fighter than those early efforts is an understatement. In his fight with Nik Lentz, another high-output wrestler, Allen stuffed all nine takedown attempts. Since then, nobody has gotten the better of Allen except Holloway.

Evloev’s heavy pressure on the feet mitigated much of the damage he could have taken while in the octagon. He only absorbed 2.74 significant strikes per minute, defending 61% of the time. His striking defense will be tested against a much more prolific Allen, but he is still not a likely candidate for Allen’s third knockout in the UFC.

Betting on Allen to win by decision is essentially a parlay of his money line (+150) and the method of victory being a decision (-330). The odds put together as a simple parlay come out to +226, giving us an edge on the +330 at DraftKings.

Best UFC Allen-Evloev Bet & Pick: Allen by Decision +330 at DraftKings

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UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Pick

With each fighter refusing to take the fight to the ground, and their high striking rate, there is real value in betting the under on the total rounds market. It would be a surprise to see either fighter attempt a takedown for as long as the bout lasts, save for a desperation attempt if one of them gets rocked. In his seven career fights, Curtis has yet to procure a single takedown. Barriault does not outpace him by much, only securing two takedowns in his 11 fights. Without lengthy grappling exchanges to sop up minutes of the clock, the threat of a knockout will permeate throughout the entire 15-minute bout.

What the fighters lack in grappling pressure, they make up for in striking aggression. Barriault lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute at a 47% rate, while Curtis lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute at a 50% clip. Without much time to disengage, the fight will likely hang on a razor’s edge for much of its runtime, especially since neither fighter defends strikes well. Both fighters absorb over five significant strikes per minute, with Curtis getting tagged at an astounding 6.3 significant strikes per minute.

The potential for this fight to end early is reflected in each fighter’s career. Out of their sixteen UFC fights, excluding the two no-contests, eight have ended before the halfway point of the final round. With the implied odds for the under 2.5 rounds sitting at around 44%, the books have left a slight edge for us given this history. The edge gets wider when accounting for the fighters’ styles.

Curtis and Barriault had eight fights against fighters who landed more than four significant strikes per minute in their career. Of these eight fights, five have ended under two and a half rounds for a rate of 62.5%. The rate ticks up to 66.7% when considering Curtis’ lone bout on the Dana White contender series, which ended early in the third round against a high-output striker in Sean Lally. While the sample size is small, the numbers suggest this fight will end earlier than the books anticipate.

Best UFC Curtis-Barriault Bet: Under 2.5 +130 at DraftKings

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UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | Neil Magny-Mike Malott Pick

With Malott favored, it makes sense that the books list the over is in the plus money, but given Magny’s style, there appears to be an edge here on it. Magny has reached the point in his career where the UFC puts him up against exciting prospects looking to jump into the higher reaches of the division. While an unenviable position for older fighters, Magny is a perfect test for young fighters to test themselves given his weird style and his generally sharp ability both on the feet and in grappling.

Magny’s record reveals he looks to get the fight to the ground early and often, grinding his opponents down over long periods of control time. He secures 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 3.45 significant strikes per minute. In his last matchup, a decision loss against Ian Garry, Magny attempted to skip the step of taking his opponent down altogether, spending minutes on his backside and attempting to pull guard. While it didn’t get him the win, he avoided getting knocked out as a +380 underdog.

Despite his grappling-heavy approach, Magny has been submitted five times in his career, and he owns just two submission victories. In contrast, Malott’s prowess on the ground is well-documented. In his three UFC fights, he has two submission victories, with the third coming by knockout. In total, he procured six submission victories in his twelve professional fights. Magny, however, is a leap in competition that will pose a much greater challenge when Malott seeks submissions.

Magny certainly has holes in his submission defense, but the fact he has been submitted in only 16% of his fights in over 205 minutes of combined control time throughout his career helps to contextualize this number. To put this number another way, Magny has spent nearly fourteen full three-round UFC fights on the ground while only falling victim to a submission five times.

While Malott procured a knockout victory against Mickey Gall, Magny’s striking defense is miles ahead of his, as Magny only absorbs 2.4 significant strikes per minute compared to Gall’s 4.25. Without much of a threat of a knockout against an experienced fighter, Malott will need to secure yet another submission to end the round before the halfway point of the final round. Given Magny’s ability to drag fights to the bell, it seems unlikely he will succumb early on.

For his part, Magny doesn’t pose much of a threat to end the fight early. He only has seven wins before the final bell, five of which came before the halfway point of the last round. With Magny listed as a comfortable underdog, there doesn’t appear to be much of a chance that he finishes the fight early.

Best UFC Magny-Malott Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 +150 at DraftKings

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UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | Raquel Pennington-Mayra Bueno Silva Pick

Riding with Pennington as an underdog should prove sharp given Bueno Silva’s lack of pressure when creating grappling exchanges. While Bueno Silva fights aggressively when looking for submissions, her submission prowess comes more as a consequence of her opponents’ decision to engage her on the ground rather than Bueno Silva’s ability to take her opponents down. A prime example of this in action comes from her fight with Lina Lansberg, who re-engaged with Bueno Silva on the ground after escaping before subsequently falling victim to a knee bar.

Shockingly, Bueno Silva has only procured two total takedowns in her six submissions victories in the octagon, and both came in the aforementioned Lansberg fight. Even more shocking is that Bueno Silva amassed less than six minutes of ground control time combined, five of which came against Lansberg. Three of Bueno Silva’s submissions came with zero minutes of ground control time.

While this suggests she has an uncanny ability to find submissions out of thin air, it also suggests a fighter can game plan around grappling. Simply put, unless Bueno Silva more aggressively seeks takedowns, Pennington shouldn’t have to engage her on the ground if she chooses not to do so. It would likely behoove her not to, too.

For her part, Pennington only attains 0.93 takedowns in 15 minutes of fight time. Given her experience in the octagon, Pennington probably won’t try to implement more wrestling into her game plan when taking stock of Bueno Silva’s skillset. Without these grappling exchanges, Bueno Silva will have even fewer opportunities to finish the fight than she normally does.

Further, Pennington has never been submitted in her seventeen UFC fights, and she has even attained three submission wins herself. That suggests Pennington’s ground game, though not a central part of her arsenal, is strong enough to potentially work out of a submission attempt if she finds herself engaging Bueno Silva on the ground.

If the fight goes to a decision, it would likely favor Pennington. Firstly, Pennington has a 9-4 record in the thirteen fights that went to decision. This compares favorably to Bueno Silva’s 1-2-1 record in decisions, of which her only win came against the 1-5 Wu Yanan. Stylistically, the fight would seem to favor Pennington as well. She employs strong boxing and good striking defense, only absorbing 3.34 significant strikes per minute while defending at a rate of 62%. Bueno Silva, on the other hand, was out-struck on the feet in many of her fights, including those she went on to win by submission.

I can’t see where Bueno Silva might have an edge on the cards due to her struggles with taking opponents down and gaining control time. The bookmakers seem to concede this, as Pennington’s odds to win by decision sit at +200 while Bueno Silva’s odds to win by decision sit at +330. Pennington is even comparatively favored when accounting for the knockout, as her odds to win by KO/TKO/DQ or decision are set at +165 compared to Bueno Silva’s at +185.

I expect Pennington to keep the fight standing and to refuse to engage Bueno Silva on the ground. If she can do this successfully, she should have the edge if Bueno Silva can’t find a way to generate takedowns.

Best UFC Pennington-Bueno Silva Bet & Pick: Pennington ML +130 at DraftKings

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UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | Sean Strickland-Dricus Du Plessis Pick

Strickland has had a tale of two careers after his incredible short-notice performance against Israel Adesanya in his last bout. Before winning the middleweight belt, Strickland was somewhat of a journeyman with little chance at a title shot. He had gone just 2-2 in his four fights before stepping into his fight against Izzy, so, barring a run, he would likely have been boxed out of the upper reaches of the division. After he took the title, however, he immediately cemented his name as one of the biggest in the sport and garnered a dedicated fan base, both due to his fighting and his out-of-the-ring persona.

The fact remains Strickland had never beaten an elite fighter before his last fight. Strickland lost all three of his previous three fights against title winners or title contenders — but one of those came against Kamaru Usman before Strickland made the jump to middleweight. While fighters can certainly make changes to their game to reach a higher level, it’s likelier that Strickland simply isn’t an elite fighter but is instead a solid one with certain elite elements to his game.

One of the elite elements of Strickland’s game is his striking defense. When combined with his unorthodox, pressure-heavy style, he threw off Adesanya’s timing and walked through him. However, Strickland’s defense isn’t perfect. His strike defense rate sits at 63%. Just five fights ago, he got knocked out by light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Strickland deserves credit for bringing Pereira into his camp to sharpen his striking, but Du Plessis’ strength and aggression will be a different challenge altogether.

Adesanya’s counter-heavy style was tailor-made for Strickland to control the pace with heavy pressure. He will not have that luxury against Du Plessis, who lands a ballistic 6.95 significant strikes per minute to go with 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. Du Plessis’ opponents rarely find themselves on the front foot, with all but one succumbing to a finish before the final bell.

Du Plessis gives his opponents openings to tag him early before he finds his range, as proven early in the first round of his fight against Robert Whitaker. However, as the fight progressed, Du Plessis adjusted and avoided Whitaker’s shots while landing some devastating ones of his own. If Strickland cannot take advantage of early holes in Du Plessis’ game, he could be in for a long night. Ultimately, it looks likelier than not that Strickland’s run will come to an early end, but one thing is certain: if Strickland can defend his belt, he won’t do so quietly.

Best UFC Strickland-Du Plessis Bet & Pick: Du Plessis ML -105 at DraftKings

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