UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Odds & Picks: Bets for Volkanovski, Whittaker & More

The UFC is back with a huge card this weekend, which kicks of a legendary run of events, ultimately ending in UFC 300. Dana White promised to announce the main event for UFC 300 in UFC 298’s press conference, but there is plenty more reason to tune in for the full card. Let’s dive into the latest UFC 298 odds, and more for: Volkanovski vs. Topuria. Onto our UFC 298 picks!

If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Odds & Picks: Bets for Volkanovski, Whittaker & More

Prelim Spotlight: UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Amanda Lemos-Mackenzie Dern Pick

It’s rare that a Women’s Strawweight bout has longer odds to go to decision than to end before the bell, given the perceived lack of knockout power. Nonetheless, Lemos and Dern earned the line, winning nine of their combined twenty-two fights without needing the judges’ scorecards. Dern’s ground game is especially dangerous, as she won four of her twelve fight by submission. However, Lemos is respectable on the ground, which should allow her to escape dangerous submission attempts if she finds herself in such a position.

Where Lemos separates herself from Dern is on the feet. Both Dern and Lemos land about the same amount of significant strikes per minute, but Lemos does it on far greater efficiency, landing 55% of the time compared to Dern’s 40%. Beyond the gap in efficiency, Lemos clearly has more stopping power in her strikes, as she won three of her fights by knockout, a feat which Dern still hasn’t accomplished.

Lemos’ ability to win by knockout is especially impressive given the lack of strikes she throws. For example, her third-round knockout against Marina Rodriguez came after landing only twenty-nine strikes, ten of which came in the last round. Dern will have to respect Lemos’ power at every point in the fight or risk suffering the same fate.

Dern is certainly dangerous, and Lemos would be smart to avoid going to the ground at all costs. It shouldn’t be too difficult to avoid the takedown as Dern only converts her takedown attempts 14% of the time. There is little risk that Lemos takes it to the ground herself, as she averages less than one takedown per fifteen minutes. It wouldn’t be wise to implement a more wrestling-oriented approach in this fight, and it’s likely that Lemos’ team recognizes that.

Of Lemos’ seven victories, only one failed to cover the -3.5 line, and even accounting for her losses, her conversion rate on the -3.5 sits at a respectable 60%. Even if the fight goes to the cards, Dern doesn’t have a great record in decisions. With three losses in seven decisions, two of which were dominant victories for her opponents, there is a real risk she can’t perform when her grappling is shut down.

Ultimately, the -3.5 for Lemos is a strong play even if the fight reaches the cards. If it ends before the final bell, I like Lemos to win by knockout.

Best UFC 298 Pick: Lemos–Dern Bet & Pick: Lemos -3.5, +105 at DraftKings.

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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Anthony Hernandez-Roman Kopylov Pick

Kopylov is an interesting fighter in many ways. When you hear that he’s a five-time world champion in combat sambo, it’s fair to think he employs a grappling-heavy style in the same vein as Khabib Nurmagomedov or Islam Makhachev. That assumption would be incorrect, however, as Kopylov attempts less than one takedown per fight. Instead, he dominates opponents with his deadly striking.

Kopylov’s precision and power is best demonstrated by the fact that two of his four knockout victories came from strikes to the body, not the head. While it doesn’t take much power to shut an opponent down when striking to the liver, it takes a high degree of accuracy to actually land it.

Despite Kopylov’s striking-oriented approach, he has great takedown defense, stuffing 92% of his opponents’ attempts. His ability to keep the fight standing is especially important against Hernandez. In his seven UFC bouts, Hernandez won three times by submission. He’s also good at getting the fight to the ground, as he lands 6.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight-time.

If Kopylov can’t stuff Hernandez’s takedowns, he could be in real danger. Nonetheless, Kopylov has a special ability to stop his opponents, attaining all four of his UFC victories by knockout. With implied probability sitting at just 22% for Kopylov to win by knockout, the books severely underestimate his stopping power, but you shouldn’t.

Best UFC 298 Picks- Hernandez–Kopylov Bet & Pick: Kopylov to win by KO/TKO/DQ, +350 at DraftKings.

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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Merab Dvalishvili-Henry Cejudo Pick

One interesting wrinkle coming into this fight is that Dvalishvili trains at the same gym as Aljamain Sterling, who beat Cejudo in his last fight. While some may think this will give an edge to Dvalishvili, as the same coaches will help him gameplan for this fight, it may well cut the opposite way. Cejudo is nothing if not a cerebral fighter, and he will have the opportunity to analyze the tape on his last fight, both to patch up the holes in his game that Sterling was able to exploit and to look for weaknesses in the Serra-Longo Fight Team’s approach.

Dvalishvili is not the same caliber of striker as Sterling is, landing nearly one less significant strike per minute at a success rate 11% lower, but he generally makes up for it with his aggressive grappling, landing 6.55 takedowns in fifteen minutes of fight-time. His relative inefficiency on the feet suggests that the threat of the takedown allows him to open up his striking.

This was on full display in his dominant performance against Petr Yan, who got outstruck one hundred forty-seven to seventy-five despite being the superior kickboxer. Watching the fight, Dvalishvili constantly changed levels to feint at the takedown, which allowed him to come up top when Yan dropped his hands to defend the shot.

Cejudo’s wrestling-prowess will make this strategy less effective. Cejudo already defends the takedown at an 82% rate, and while Dvalishvili scores a lot of takedowns, he does so inefficiently, successfully finishing his attempts only 36% of the time. Even against Yan, a kickboxer who struggles with takedown defense, Dvalishvili scored eleven takedowns but it took him a mind-boggling forty-nine attempts.

We’ve only seen Dvalishvili win a stand-up fight against someone of Cejudo’s caliber once, and it was against an aging Jose Aldo. Even in that fight, he was able to amass five minutes of control time in a close decision, in which he only landed fifty-seven significant strikes at a paltry 36% success rate.

Cejudo has real striking acumen and power. In his past seven fights, he won four by knockout, against prolific strikers, such as Dominick Cruz, Marlon Moraes, and TJ Dillashaw. Dvalishvili will always be in danger, even if he is able to amass control time.

Cejudo’s technical ability and experience are perfectly tailored to bring Dvalishvili’s streak to an end. Getting him as a +180 underdog is too good to pass up.

Best UFC 298 Picks- Dvalishvili–Cejudo Bet & Pick: Cejudo ML, +180 at DraftKings.

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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Geoff Neal-Ian Garry Pick

Geoff Neal has the nickname “Handz of Steel” for a reason. In his war with Shavkat, each fighter was visibly rocked at various times throughout the fight. Neal’s biggest weakness in his striking comes when he has to worry about the takedown, as every high-level grappler he faced was able to outstrike him. Whether it’s simply a mental block or a strategic flaw, Neal doesn’t have to be worried about either in his fight with Neal, who gets less than one takedown per three-round fight.

When Neal doesn’t have to worry about the takedown, he applies pressure on the feet, landing 5.22 significant strikes per minute. This has its drawbacks, as he also absorbs 5.60 significant strikes per minute. You can expect Ian Garry to try to take advantage of this as he already lands 6.67 significant strikes per minute. It’s unlikely that either fighter will look to take the fight to the ground unless it’s wide open.

Without long periods of control time, and each fighter’s heavy pressure, it’s likely that a lot of the fight will be spent in the pocket exchanging heavy strikes. While neither fighter has been knocked out to this point in their career, a war on the feet is never a recipe for going the distance, particularly with each fighter’s power.

In Neal’s eleven fights, including his appearance on the Contender Series, only four went to decision, and only five went over two and a half rounds. Of these five, two were against prolific grapplers, Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov, both of which had over five minutes of control time and another came against Belal Muhammad who goes to decision in the vast majority of his fights. Garry doesn’t fit the mold of any of these fighters. For his part, three of Garry’s six UFC fights ended before the final bell, two of which ended in the first round. Of their seventeen combined fights, ten ended in finishes, for a rate of 58%. It’s safer to bet on the fight not to go to decision, which sits at -125 at Draftkings, but I would play this as a ladder with the under 2.5 at +110.

Best UFC 298 Picks- Neal-Garry Bet & Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds, +110 at DraftKings.

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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Robert Whittaker-Paulo Costa Pick

It’s unfortunate that people still tend to overlook Whittaker as one of the best fighters on the current UFC roster. Sitting outside the top fifteen in the pound-for-pound rankings, he only lost three times in the past decade, twice to Israel Adesanya and once to Dricus Du Plessis. Perhaps part of the reason he still seems to go under the radar is because some fans believe he’s a boring fighter.

His wrestle-oriented style mixed with a somewhat-low striking output can tend to drag fights out longer, which is part of the reason he went to decision twelve times in his twenty UFC fights. Even with his low output, he still has incredible power in his hands – hence his nickname, Bobby Knuckles.

He will have plenty of opportunities to land big shots against Costa. In his time in the UFC, Costa absorbed an astounding 6.38 significant strikes per minute, defending at only a 42% rate. It’s a trade-off worth making against a lot of fighters, as Costa lands 6.50 significant strikes in his own right. However, Whittaker is on a different level, and Costa could put himself in danger with this approach. If Costa comes out aggressive in the same way this fight, it will likely draw Whittaker into a slightly faster pace than he normally fights at.

If Costa is to pull of the upset, it will most likely come from a knockout, as four of his six wins came via KO/TKO. In total, only three of Costa’s eight fights went to the bell, and though he won two of these, neither came against an opponent of Whittaker’s caliber.

Combined, Whittaker’s and Costa’s fights in the UFC went under two and a half rounds thirteen times in twenty-eight fights, for a rate of 46%. With implied odds for the over sitting at around 40%, there is an edge in playing the under. This is especially true with Costa’s aggression.

Best UFC 298 Picks- Whittaker–Costa Bet & Pick: Under 2.5, +124 at DraftKings.

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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Alexander Volkanovski-Ilia Topuria Pick

There are few fighters on the current UFC roster that have resumes even remotely close to Volk’s. Though he lost two of his last three, one in devastating fashion, each came at Lightweight to Islam Makhachev, the current number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. While Topuria beat Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell in his last two fights, neither comes close to Volk’s caliber.

Volk is about as well-rounded as they come, and his ability to land a high percentage of significant strikes at the output he throws for the entirety of a five-round fight speaks both to his skill and stamina. Volk lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute at a 57% rate. He landed over 60% of his significant strikes in five of his last six fights, each of which was a title fight. In all eight of his title fights, the only fighter that defended over 40% of Volk’s significant strikes was Max Holloway, who generally defends significant strikes at a 59% rate.

This is important, because Topuria was rocked a few times in his fight against Jai Herbert and even took a few spinning kicks to the face from Ryan Hall, who is known far more for his jiu jitsu than his striking. Against fighters like Hall and Herbert, Topuria had openings to bring himself back into the fight and eventually win with brutal knockouts, but those same openings likely won’t be there against Volk.

Topuria certainly improved since those fights, but Volk’s defense is on another level. Finding a Hail Mary knockout won’t be so easy, as Volk only absorbs 3.42 significant strikes per minute, nearly half of the punishment he doles out. Topuria may have the slight edge when it comes to grappling, as he lands around 2.19 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight-time. This is especially helpful when he gets rocked on the feet, as he can land desperation takedowns and take time to recover.

However, according to ESPN’s statistics, Topuria didn’t advance position while on the ground in any of his fights after his debut. These stats may not be the most exact, as they depend on qualitative assessments to determine what counts as an advance, but they still show that Topuria isn’t the most aggressive when he gets top position on the ground. This is supplemented by the amount of ground strikes he lands, which was less than twenty in all but one of his UFC fights.

Ultimately, there is always the chance Topuria lands a heavy shot and puts Volk out. It’s also possible Volk isn’t at his peak anymore after the two losses to Makhachev. Nonetheless, I’ll take my chances with either of those possibilities with the line at -120.

Best UFC 298 Picks- Volkanovski-Topuria Bet & Pick: Volkanovski ML, -120 at DraftKings.

Hopefully our UFC 298 odds, UFC 298 Picks and all other information proved helpful.