UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera Odds & Picks: Bets for Poirier, O’Malley & More

With champions and contenders down the card, UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera has plenty of action for fight fans. Of course, UFC 300 looms over this one, UFC 299 still has plenty of action in store, and the picture in the Bantamweight, Lightweight, and Welterweight divisions will be changed drastically after this weekend. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC 299: O’Malley. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera Odds & Picks: Bets for Poirier, O’Malley & More

Prelim Spotlight: UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Katlyn Cerminara-Maycee Barber Pick

Barber showed a new level of aggression in her most recent fight. Landing 81 strikes in just over a round and a half, she was able to win by knockout for the first time in six fights. The strategy made sense, given her prior stretch of decisions, as she dropped two of them — including a fight in which she landed just 16 significant strikes. She won in close split decisions in two of the other six.

The change paid off and enabled her to win convincingly. I expect her to come into this one with a similar game plan, especially since Barber talked about Cerminara being a gatekeeper to title shots. With the respect Barber showed to Cerminara, she will likely look to win dominantly. Cerminara’s inability to land strikes consistently, connecting only 34% of the time, will do little to slow Barber down if she remains true to her previous plan.

Both fighters have a solid pace on the feet, with Cerminara landing 4.59 significant strikes per minute and Barber landing 4.60. However, Cerminara lands far more to the body and legs than does Barber. In her 11 UFC fights, Barber only landed more than 10 significant strikes to the body and legs three times. Cerminara has only failed to land more than 10 significant strikes to the body and head four times in her 16 UFC bouts.

With such a heavy output towards the head, it’s no surprise Barber won by knockout five times in 11 bouts, including her Contender Series fight. She will likely have plenty of chances to finish Cerminara, who absorbs 4.41 significant strikes per minute. The implied probability for Barber to win by knockout sits around 22%, far lower than both her 45% knockout rate in the UFC and her 40% knockout rate in her professional career. With such a substantial difference, I like a small bet with a large payout.

Best UFC Cerminara-Barber Bet & Pick: Barber to Win By KO/TKO/DQ +350 at DraftKings

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Prelim Spotlight: UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Curtis Blaydes-Jailton Almeida Pick

Both Blaydes and Almeida look to take their opponents down often. Blaydes attains 5.93 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, while Almeida gains 5.14 takedowns. However, Almeida has far better takedown defense, stuffing 75% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. This is far stronger than Blaydes’ 33% takedown defense rate.

Blaydes will need to show better takedown defense than he has at any point in his career to stay out of danger. Almeida has 12 professional wins by submission, four of which came in the Octagon. With Blaydes’s questionable takedown defense, this could be a real issue.

Neither fighter has a particularly high striking output, but the edge in knockout power likely slants toward Blaydes. Out of his 12 UFC victories, seven were by knockout. However, Almeida has shown an impressive ability to avoid taking damage in his six UFC fights since his time on the Contender Series.

Unbelievably, Almeida absorbed zero significant strikes in three fights and only took one significant strike in two of the other three. In his five-round decision victory against Derrick Lewis, Almeida was only hit with 20 significant strikes, the most in his time in the UFC. This is significant because Blaydes’ edge in power won’t do him much good if he can’t land anything significant. With the line even, I like riding with Almeida, potentially laddering it with the -3.5 and/or with Almeida to win by submission.

Best UFC Blaydes-Almeida Bet & Pick: Almeida ML -115 at DraftKings

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Petr Yan-Song Yadong Pick

Yan fought a murderer’s row of champions and contenders in his last five fights, taking on former champion Aljamain Sterling twice, current champ Sean O’Malley once, Corey Sandhagen and Merab Dvalishvili. While he only won once, beating Sandhagen by decision, people shouldn’t look at this run as an indication that Yan is on the back nine of his career.

Yadong certainly shouldn’t overlook Yan, particularly as he doesn’t have a win against someone on Yan’s level. Yadong’s only wins against currently ranked opponents came against No. 15 Ricky Simon and Marlon Vera. However, his win against Vera came nearly four years ago and before Vera went on a 6-2 run in the UFC. His only other fight against a currently ranked opponent was against Corey Sandhagen, which he lost handily, getting outstruck by 40 before suffering a KO.

When it comes to this fight, most of it will likely occur on the feet. Yadong doesn’t seek the takedown often, only attaining 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Yan can use the takedown more effectively than Yadong, as he secures 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 53% success rate, but he tends to keep the fight standing given his striking prowess.

On the feet, Yan has an edge in the raw numbers. He lands a solid 5.03 significant strikes per minute at a 53% rate. This compares favorably to Yadong’s 4.38 significant strikes per minute at a success rate of 42%. Both fighters do well to defend themselves, with Yan stifling his opponents 59% of the time and Yadong defending at a 57% clip.

Overall, with Yan’s edge in experience, striking and grappling, I have him winning with relative ease. I would see an edge playing him at least until the line moves to -150 and perhaps beyond. With it sitting at -130, backing Yan to win outright is the easy choice.

Best UFC Yan-Yadong Bet & Pick: Yan ML -130 at DraftKings

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Gilbert Burns-Jack Della Maddalena Pick

Both Burns and JDM are incredibly dangerous on the feet. This power enabled each to win by knockout three times in their UFC careers. Burns also has quite impressive grappling skills, winning five times by submission. However, the danger they pose at any given moment is overshadowing the fact they go to the scorecards more often than expected.

In their combined 28 fights, these fighters have gone to decision 14 times (50%). Burns is particularly prone to taking the fight to the bell, doing so in 11 of his 21 UFC fights. This helps to keep him near the top of the division even in losses. Though he lost his bout to Khamzat Chimaev, one of the most hyped fighters in the UFC at the time, bringing it to a close decision was seen as somewhat of a win. His toughness allows him to stay in fights that he may lose, but it doesn’t bode well for the under.

Outside of Burns’ toughness, his low striking output and grappling-oriented approach tend to draw the fight out longer. Burns only lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute to go along with 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. JDM will look to pressure Burns, as he lands a whopping 7.20 significant strikes per minute, but his pace could be slowed dramatically if Burns seeks to engage in long grappling exchanges.

JDM’s dominance on the feet was somewhat blunted in his last two fights. JDM went to the cards against both Bassil Hafes and Kevin Holland, each of which ended in close split decisions. With all due respect to each of these fighters, they just aren’t on Burns’ level. To take Burns out early, JDM will need to make a huge leap. It’s certainly possible, but given that 15 of their 28 fights (54%) went over 2.5 rounds, it’s not something I’m counting on happening.

Best UFC Burns-Della Maddalena Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +124 at DraftKings

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Kevin Holland-Michael Page Pick

Making the jump to the UFC from Bellator hasn’t been easy of late. Just before Michael Chandler made his UFC debut, the win percentage for all Bellator champions in the UFC was around 43%. Chandler himself is below .500, with a 2-3 UFC record. However, their collective record is deceiving and is more impressive upon investigation. Most of the time, former Bellator fighters are matched up with the best fighters in the division. Chandler himself only lost to Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier.

Holland is by no means an easy debut, but he has yet to fight for a belt and hasn’t transcended to the top of the rankings at this point in his career. All said, it’s hard to compare results in Bellator to those in the UFC, but from the information available, I don’t perceive it as being too significant for a fighter that is as dangerous as MVP is. For those that disagree, I would recommend holding off betting on this one.

One thing we can anticipate is that this fight will take place mostly on the feet. Holland only gets 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. In his fight with Stephen Thompson, Holland even had a gentleman’s agreement to keep the fight standing despite Thompson’s questionable grappling ability. MVP is also a striker through and through, with a deep background in kickboxing before his MMA career. In 23 fights, he only won by submission four times.

With long striking exchanges, each fighter will be in danger of suffering a knockout loss at nearly every moment. Holland and MVP land a similar amount of significant strikes, with the former landing 4.39 per minute and the latter landing 4.53 – though it’s difficult to verify these exact numbers.

If MVP lands a clean shot, Holland has almost no shot to avoid the KO. MVP’s power was on full display in his legendary KO of Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos, which sent Santos to the hospital with a noticeable dent in his skull. It’s this power that enabled MVP to win by knockout 10 times in his 19 Bellator fights (52%). With the implied probability that MVP lands a knockout sitting at only 18%, I’m willing to place a small bet for a big payout. Holland is no doubt tough, and it should be a great fight, but MVP is too dangerous to go against.

Best UFC Holland-Page Bet & Pick: Page to Win By KO/TKO/DQ +450 at DraftKings

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Dustin Poirier-Benoit Saint-Denis Pick

Poirier’s last three losses came against Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, each of whom ranks among the best Lightweights of the last decade. It’s been seven and a half years since Poirier lost to a fighter outside of the upper echelon of the division. All this to say Saint-Denis hasn’t fought anyone near Poirier’s level, and, to come out with a victory in this one, he will have to prove he belongs near the top of the deepest division in the UFC.

Saint-Denis could be up to the task. He boasts a strong wrestling game with sophisticated striking, which his power makes all the more dangerous. In his UFC career, Saint-Denis has landed 5.53 significant strikes per minute while attaining 4.55 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Since his disappointing UFC debut, Saint-Denis has looked unstoppable, finishing each of his five fights — twice by submission and three times by knockout. Keeping this streak alive won’t be so easy. Poirier is one of the toughest and most well-rounded fighters in the UFC. If Saint-Denis wants to grapple, he opens himself up to a world of danger on the ground, as Poirier developed his submissions into a real strength. He is the only person who put Khabib in any danger, almost securing a guillotine victory against him.

Poirier’s striking is his main calling card. Landing at 5.49 significant strikes per minute at a respectable 50% success rate allowed him to knock opponents out in 10 of his 21 UFC victories. Combine his power and output with his ability to avoid taking the same amount of damage back – absorbing only 4.30 significant strikes per minute – and he is a handful for anyone to deal with on the feet. Saint-Denis can prove he’s the real deal with a win in this one. However, Poirier’s proven track record against the best fighters in the division has me backing him, particularly with the line against him.

Best UFC Poirier-Saint Denis Bet & Pick: Poirier ML +160 at DraftKings

UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera | Sean O’Malley-Marlon Vera Pick

The “Suga” Show is an apt description of most O’Malley fights. Simply put, he isn’t rivaled by many fighters when it comes to his striking prowess. In his UFC career, O’Malley lands a startling 7.25 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy is perhaps more impressive, connecting 61% of the time.

His skill doesn’t end on the offensive side. With his speed, timing, and instincts, he can limit damage, only absorbing 3.51 significant strikes per minute while defending at a strong 61%. Without the threat of the takedown, the numbers suggest O’Malley should cruise his way to victory each round against any fighter outside of the most elite strikers.

Fortunately for O’Malley, Vera doesn’t look to grapple often. In his time in the UFC, Vera averages only 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Even if he attempts to introduce wrestling more often to take O’Malley off his game, Vera’s 39% success rate on takedowns isn’t too daunting for a fighter who had to face former champion Aljamain Sterling in his last fight.

Vera comes into this fight with a victory over O’Malley, but he struggled to gain the striking advantage in many of his recent fights. Vera absorbs more significant strikes per minute (5.16) than he lands (4.37). In his fights against Rob Font and Dominick Cruz, Vera was significantly outstruck, but was able to equalize with raw power, knocking Font down three times and knocking Cruz out. When he can’t land his power-bomb, his results have been less than stellar, as seen in his loss to Song Yadong and his domination at the hands of Corey Sandhagen.

However, Vera’s power is the exact reason I am wary of the -275 number in favor of O’Malley. For this line to be profitable, he would have to win over 75% of the time, which is a difficult prospect against a fighter with Vera’s knockout ability. Another interesting quirk in O’Malley’s history worries me about the line. In their last fight, O’Malley got finished in large part because his leg and ankle were severely compromised. If this was a one-time problem, it would be easy to overlook, but he also broke his leg in the final round against Andre Soukhamtath (although he went on to the fight).

It’s hard to say if these are incredible flukes that aren’t due to any of O’Malley’s physical or stylistic features, but it’s a factor to consider when looking at such a steep line. However, the spread accounts for most of the fight possibilities, with a favorable slant towards O’Malley.

If O’Malley can finish the fight by knockout, as he has done in seven of his 10 fights, then the scorecards are irrelevant. With near even odds, the risk O’Malley gets finished is far better accounted for than on the moneyline. The main concern for the spread depends on O’Malley’s strategy early. If he comes out a bit more tentative, trying to find the distance, he may well drop a round for lack of activity. However, the bad blood between the two may well see O’Malley start fast.

Overall, these are two different fighters than they were four years ago. If Vera can’t find a way to equalize on the feet, it will likely be a very long night, even if it makes it to the judges.

Best UFC O’Malley–Vera Bet & Pick: O’Malley -5.5 -125 at DraftKings

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