UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Odds & Picks: Bets for Aldo, Pantoja & More

With the first pay-per-view since UFC 300, fans were hoping to see Alex Pereira back in action, as he floated the idea of fighting Tom Aspinall for the heavyweight interim belt just weeks after defending his light heavyweight strap. While it’s disappointing this never materialized, the Brazil card has a lot to offer as three fighters on the main card look to prove they are the real deal and should be considered top contenders or, better yet, champions. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC 301. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Odds & Picks

Prelim Spotlight: UFC 301 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz-Iasmin Lucindo Pick

Lucindo has a bright future ahead of her. She’s going into her fourth UFC bout and in her home country, to boot. However, a bright future also implies youth, which can have its downside in a sport as mentally and physically taxing as MMA.

Kowalkiewicz, on the other hand, has a wealth of experience to rely on. She’s fought for the belt and faced off against some of the biggest names in the division, with her best win coming against Rose Namajunas. While it looked like Kowalkiewicz was well on the back side of her career when she lost five fights in a row, she bounced back and comes into this on a four-fight win streak.

Coming back from a skid like that shows both Kowalkiewicz’s toughness and her ability to change her game years into her career. To return to her winning ways, she became more aggressive on the feet. This will pay dividends against Lucindo, whose striking is questionable at best.

In her three UFC fights, Lucindo lands only 3.33 significant strikes per minute at a paltry 39% hit rate. She also absorbs around the same amount of damage, eating 3.23 significant strikes per minute. Compare this to Kowalkiewicz, who lands 5.92 significant strikes per minute at 43% efficiency and only absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute.

Lucindo’s biggest advantage will likely come in grappling exchanges. She already has a submission victory under her belt, and she lands 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. To make this more impressive, she scores a takedown on 66% of her efforts. Kowalkiewicz showed weaknesses in her takedown defense against Yan Xiaonan, but her takedown defense has been solid throughout her career when not against a fighter of Xiaonan’s caliber. She flashes a 74% takedown defense rate, which will help her keep the fight standing where it needs to be.

If Kowalkiewicz can stuff the takedown, the difference in experience will begin to show itself more apparently. Often times, promising young fighters have a difficult time going away from their gameplan if it’s not working. Learning to adjust in the middle of a fight is a skill that can only really develop over time, as the pressure and intensity of a sparring session is not the same as a real fight, particularly on the main card.

At such long odds, I see the smartest play here as riding with Kowalkiewicz to score a stunning upset.

Best UFC Kowalkiewicz-Lucindo Bet & Pick: Kowalkiewicz Moneyline (+290 at DraftKings)

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Prelim Spotlight: UFC 301 | Jack Shore-Joanderson Brito Pick

It seems like Brito doesn’t like being in the Octagon for all that long. His average fight time for his career is only six minutes and 37 seconds, which includes a bout that went all the way to a decision. His propensity to finish fights early makes him dangerous for anyone he against whom he squares up. On the other hand, Shore’s fights tend to drag into the later rounds, with him tending to wear his opponents down with his heavy pressure that comes from the takedown.

This disparity speaks to an advantage that Shore could have going into this bout. Since his time on the Contender Series, Brito’s only bout that went to decision resulted in his only UFC loss. Without a finish early, there is concern about Brito’s ability to win a sustained fight, particularly one that stays on the feet.

There isn’t much concern about this fight remaining standing, as Shore lands 3.42 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, while Brito lands 3.40. Nonetheless, Shore appears to have an edge on the feet for the length of time that it remains standing. Neither fighter lands at a particularly high rate, with Shore landing 3.84 significant strikes per minute and Brito landing 3.32.

When accounting for the position their strikes come in, Shore’s striking numbers look more impressive. A whopping 73% of his strikes come on the feet, compared to only 54% of Brito’s. Shore’s 58% efficiency on significant strikes is far more impressive than Brito’s 51% when considering Shore is landing at that efficiency predominantly on the feet where he doesn’t have a dominant position. Shore also defends on the feet efficiently. He only absorbs 2.20 significant strikes per minute while defending 57% of the time.

Though Shore may have the advantage on the feet, the fight will really come down to who wins the grappling exchanges. Brito is far more efficient in his takedown attempts, landing one successfully 75% of the time compared to Shore’s 40%. However, Shore is better at defending the takedown, stuffing 79% of his opponent’s attempts as opposed to 50% or Brito.

Part of this comes from Brito’s willingness to pull guard if he sees an opportunity to submit his opponent off a takedown. This is a big risk against a grappler like Shore, as a miscalculation could give Shore a dominant position with no real benefit to Brito.

Overall, I would have this fight closer to a pick‘em, as I can see Brito winning quickly or Shore winning a longer, control-based decision. Since the line favors Brito, I am riding with Shore.

Best UFC Shore-Brito Bet & Pick: Shore Moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)

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UFC 301 | Paul Craig-Caio Borralho Pick

Craig’s average fight length is relatively short, sitting at just eight minutes long. On the other hand Borralho’s fights tend to drag longer, as six of his seven UFC bouts, including his two on the Contender Series, went to the cards. With such heavy odds in Borallho’s favor, it may appear that the over is the better play in this one. However, part of Craig’s short fight time is his propensity to take risks. Sometimes they pay off and he scores a quick victory, but other times they don’t and he finds himself deep in a submission or on the mat eating heavy shots before the ref calls the fight.

A miscalculated risk could see the fight end uncharacteristically quick for Borralho. Craig also has a higher tendency to go under in his losses than in his wins. Nine of Craig’s 17 UFC bouts went under 1.5 rounds (53%). Four of those came in Craig’s seven losses (57%). With such high odds in Borralho’s favor, this bodes well for the under.

In their combined 24 fights, 10 went under 1.5 rounds for a rate of 42%. This gives a slight edge over the line, which is set at an implied probability of around 38%. Though Craig’s fights do much of the heavy lifting, his propensity to lose quicker than he wins could help give a bigger edge than is set out by the raw numbers.

Given the lopsided nature of this one, I don’t see much value in playing anything in this fight, but for those that feel the need to, riding the under appears to be the best option.

Best UFC Craig-Borralho Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (+154 at DraftKings)

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UFC 301 | Michel Pereira-Ihor Potieria Pick

Pereira finished his last two fights in uncharacteristically quick fashion, beating his opponents in just over a minute each time. Bettors shouldn’t fall too in love with the idea that Pereira is going to walk into the cage and finish Potieria in the same way.

Before his two quick finishes, Pereira’s previous seven fights all went into the third round. Overall, seven of Pereira’s 10 UFC bouts went over the halfway point of the third round. This helps to explain his average fight time sitting at 10 minutes and 40 seconds.

Potieria’s average fight time is shorter than Pereira’s at seven minutes and eight seconds. Though this falls just short of the seven minutes and 30 seconds needed for the over to hit, three of Potieria’s six fights went over the halfway mark of the first round. He also tends to drag further into the fight in his losses, as two of his three losses went over, compared to one of his three wins.

While Potieria’s short career makes it hard to trust how legitimate this data is, his recent performance against Robert Bryczek should give bettors hope that he can hang in there long enough against Pereira for the over to hit, even if he ultimately doesn’t prevail. Potieria looked confident and smooth on the feet, which could keep it a close fight for the earlier rounds.

Combined, 10 of their 16 fights went over 1.5 rounds (63%). With the implied probability for the over sitting at around 45%, there is too big an edge here to not play it. It’s possible Pereira has turned himself into a completely new fighter overnight, but I’m willing to take the chance that he hasn’t and the last two finishes were outliers.

Best UFC Pereira-Potieria Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 (+154 at DraftKings)

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UFC 301 | Anthony Smith-Vitor Petrino Pick

Smith has become something of a meme in the fight community over recent years, and he’s certainly not helping himself after critiquing Alex Pereira and then defending himself by calling fans stupid. Nonetheless, he is still a solid fighter, and can perfectly be described as a gatekeeper for the higher reaches of the division.

Some may think Smith is washed, as he is 5-6 in his last 11 fights, but that’s not quite a fair assessment. His six losses came against Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksander Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev, Johnny Walker, and Khalil Rountree Jr., all of whom are in the top 10 of the division, including two champions.

In the same span, Smith beat multiple fighters looking to make the jump into the upper echelons of the division, including Ryan Spann, Jimmy Crute, and Devin Clark, as well as one of the top fighters in the division, Alexander Gustafsson.

This puts Smith in a somewhat unenviable position, as he isn’t good enough to beat the best of the best in the division, but he is good enough to stop the people who don’t belong in the title conversation. The main question in this fight is whether Petrino is in the former camp or the latter.

Petrino certainly looks impressive so far. He lands 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a stunning 68% rate. This seems to especially pair well against Smith’s 48% takedown defense rate.

However, his fights came against people far below Smith’s caliber. His best wins came against Marcin Prachnio and Modestas Bukauskas, who were ranked in the mid-40s at the time they fought in a division that is wanting for depth. It’s not fair to compare these wins to the fighters Smith fought in the same period.

Further, Petrino hasn’t been too impressive as a striker, despite scoring a couple knockouts. He only lands 2.74 significant strikes per minute at a 45% success rate. The more concerning metric against a fighter with Smith’s power is that he only defends his opponents’ significant strikes at a 45% clip. Against fighters ranked in the mid-40s-to-60s, Petrino can get away with this, but against a fighter that is far stronger, it could lead to disaster.

This is too big of a jump in caliber to justify the line being so heavily in Petrino’s favor. I’m riding with Smith to quiet some of his hype.

Best UFC Smith-Petrino Bet & Pick: Anthony Smith Moneyline (+385 at DraftKings)

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UFC 301 | Jonathan Martinez-Jose Aldo Pick

After Aldo’s devastating loss to Petr Yan, marking three losses in a row and five in seven, many thought we were seeing the end of his long and storied career. Yet, he was able to bounce back winning against recent title challenger Chito Vera, and perennial ranked fighters Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font.

Even in a loss to likely title challenger Merab Dvalishvili, Aldo was able to stuff all 16 of his takedown attempts while striking far more efficiently, landing 56% of his significant strikes to 38% for Dvalishvili. The main reason for Aldo’s loss was his inability to throw the necessary number of strikes to take the fight, due to Dvalishvili’s heavy pressure.

This won’t be an issue against Martinez. In 13 fights, Hernandez landed just six takedowns. Instead, the fight will likely remain entirely standing, which is the exact type of fight where Aldo is most dangerous.

Martinez’s striking is relatively high output compared to Aldo’s, as he lands 4.64 significant strikes per minute. However, this isn’t the same level of pressure that fighters like Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Dvalishvili were able to put on Aldo to stifle his chances on the feet.

There are also real questions as to how Martinez’s solid statistics, particularly his striking defense, which sits at 58%, will translate against Aldo. His best win came against Said Nurmagomedov, who was ranked in the low twenties at the time, in a fight that saw outstruck and taken down three times. To make the jump up and fight a top tier contender like Aldo is an entirely different beast.

I see Aldo picking Martinez apart on the feet and winning either by decision with a knockdown changing the tide of the bout, or by knockout on a well-timed counter.

Best UFC Martinez-Aldo Bet & Pick: Aldo Moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

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UFC 301 | Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Pick

Erceg was generally known for his grappling ability until his last fight. Then, he flipped his entire perception with a perfectly placed shot that put Schnell out instantly. Against Pantoja, however, Erceg shouldn’t rely on landing such a clean shot, as many of the top flyweight strikers have tried and failed at the same task.

Pantoja is underrated on the feet. In both his fights with Brandon Royval, he won many of the exchanges, even though the perception was that Royval had the edge on the feet. While Brandon Moreno out-landed Pantoja in their second fight, he can be forgiven as Moreno is one of the best flyweights of all time.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario that Erceg dominates Pantoja on the feet. Their stats are virtually identical, with Pantoja landing 4.32 significant strikes per minute on 49% efficiency compared to Erceg’s 4.57 on 48% efficiency. Their defensive numbers are similar as well, with Pantoja absorbing 3.90 significant strikes per minute on 50% efficiency and Erceg eating 3.64 on 55% efficiency.

These numbers, however, came against a completely different sample of fighters. In Pantoja’s case, they came against champions and top contenders, while Erceg’s best win came against Matt Schnell who was ranked 35th at the time. One can expect some meaningful regression in striking against a fighter as good as Pantoja.

Though the stand up will be important, this bout will likely be won or lost in grappling exchanges. Pantoja is dangerous, taking his opponents down 2.20 times per 15 minutes of fight time on 48% efficiency. He seems to only be getting better as he took Moreno down six times in his belt-winning performance, and Royval eight times as he cruised to his first title defense.

This is underpinned by four of Pantoja’s 11 UFC victories coming by submission. His opponents have never found the same level of grappling success against him, as Pantoja hasn’t lost by submission. This is troubling for Erceg who has six submission victories out of his 12 professional wins, a feat which he hasn’t yet accomplished in the UFC despite facing far worse grapplers than Pantoja.

Another concern is Erceg’s inefficiency on his takedown attempts. His overall rate of success on takedowns is 30%, which is propped up heavily by his 3-4 performance against David Dvorak. Against Alessandro Costa, Erceg was denied on seven of his eight takedown attempts, and was stuffed in his only effort against Matt Schnell. By comparison, Pantoja landed his only takedown attempt against Schnell before knocking him out in the first round.

Overall, there appears to be a meaningful gap between Pantoja and Erceg’s ability. This gap will only be made wider by Pantoja’s experience fighting far more talented fighter than Erceg.

Best UFC Pantoja-Erceg Bet & Pick: Pantoja Moneyline (-195 at DraftKings)

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