After a week off, the UFC comes back with a pay-per-view featuring one of the biggest title fights of the year. With vets and prospects up and down the main card and prelims, there’s plenty of action to be had. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Odds & Picks: Bets for Cesar Almeida, Sean Strickland & More
Prelim Spotlight: UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Jailton Almeida-Alexandr Romanov Pick
Almeida–Romanov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Almeida: -350 | Romanov: +240
Almeida -3.5: -225 | Romanov +3.5: +165
Over 1.5: -115 | Under 1.5: -110
Almeida–Romanov Preview & Pick
The penultimate fight on the prelims matches Jailton Almeida (20-3) up against Olympic wrestler Alexandr Romanov (17-2). Nobody has had answers for Jailton Almeida’s grappling outside of Curtis Blaydes, who was able to beat him via KO.
I expect that to change, given Romanov’s wrestling background. While it will likely be a grappling chess match, Romanov’s ability to strike on the feet could help give him the edge if the fight goes to the cards.
Almeida has made it clear what his gameplan is in each of his eight fights in the Octagon. He will drag his opponent to the ground and submit them with his high-level grappling. Yet even Almeida himself might be surprised to learn that he’s only landed 10 strikes on the feet from distance in all his fights combined. No, that’s not a typo. He averages less than two strikes per fight on the feet.
Even accounting for his ground strikes, Almeida only lands a sluggish 2.54 significant strikes per minute. His inability was on full display against Curtis Blaydes when he attained nine takedowns in less than six minutes but was knocked out early in the second to lose the fight.
Against an Olympic-level wrestler, the takedowns won’t come so easy. Romanov’s takedown defense numbers look shockingly poor, only sporting a 20% success rate. However, the only time an opponent attempted to take him down was in his third UFC fight against Juan Espino, who landed four of his five attempts. Since then, his opponents haven’t tried to test him, either because they know they’ll run into a brick wall, or because they’re stuck on their backs trying to get up.
Romanov takes his opponents down 4.32 times per 15 minutes of fight-time. While this may play into Almeida’s hands, bringing Romanov in so that he can seek a submission, even from the bottom, it will also allow Romanov to land some heavy ground and pound. One thing we haven’t seen from Almeida is his ability to absorb strikes. He only absorbs 0.74 significant strikes per minute, and the only fight he was out landed was his KO loss against Blaydes.
It’s almost certain that a good deal of this fight will be spent on the ground. Nonetheless, Romanov should have a decided edge in the moments the fight stays on the feet. He lands a respectable 4.06 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.20. Even if he was a below-average striker, he wouldn’t be conceding much to Almeida.
Overall, I like Romanov at such long odds to keep it even or better in grappling exchanges, while winning on the feet.
Best UFC Almeida-Romanov Bet & Pick: Romanov Moneyline +240 at DraftKings
Prelim Spotlight: UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Cesar Almeida-Roman Kopylov Pick
Almeida-Kopylov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Almeida: -115 | Kopylov: -110
Almeida +3.5: -180 | Kopylov -3.5: +135
Over 2.5: +105 | Under 2.5: -135
Almeida-Kopylov Preview & Pick
In the last fight on the prelims, Cesar Almeida (5-0) looks to continue climbing the Middleweight ranks against Roman Kopylov (12-3). I’m usually skeptical about overhyping a new UFC fighter based on a small sample size, but Almeida’s background in kickboxing at the highest level quells some of my fears.
Usually, a prospect who wins two fights in dominant fashion comes in with the whole world betting on them, but the public seems to be sleeping on Almeida a bit. This is a nightmare matchup for Romanov, that I expect to go Almeida’s way quite comfortably.
Almeida comes into this fight with an extensive fighting career. With 47 wins in professional kickboxing, it’s unlikely the lights will be too bright for him, despite a step up in competition. He’s cruised to his first two victories in the UFC, with a unanimous decision and a KO under his belt.
Almeida’s opponents put up little resistance against his elite striking. Landing 4.50 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 1.31 significant strikes per minute he’s absorbed, he hasn’t been in much danger at all.
Kopylov won’t be a cakewalk, as he lands 4.66 significant strikes, while only absorbing 4.10. Nonetheless, this is the exact type of fight that’s tailored for Almeida. Kopylov only averages 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time, so it’s entirely possible he doesn’t attempt a single one throughout the fight.
Kopylov certainly has power, as all his fights in the UFC have come by KO, but Almeida has faced plenty of dangerous strikers in his career. If he can find the range early, he should cruise here.
I like Almeida’s moneyline in this one while laddering it with the spread. Though I usually avoid fighters with little experience, I think the public is sleeping on Almeida too much in this one.
Best UFC Almeida-Kopylov Bet & Pick: Cesar Almeida Moneyline -115 at DraftKings
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Randy Brown-Elizeu Saleski Dos Santos Pic
Brown–Dos Santos Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Brown: -185 | Dos Santos: +140
Brown -3.5: -105 | Dos Santos +3.5: -125
Over 2.5: -140 | Under 2.5: +110
Brown–Dos Santos Preview & Pick
The odds comfortably favor Randy Brown (18-5) coming into his bout against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1). While a draw in his last fight might have cooled bettors on riding with Capoeira, his recent wins against Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Benoit Saint Denis, the latter of which came in dominant fashion, should give bettors hope that he can pull out an underdog victory.
There is very little daylight between these two in terms of their numbers, so riding with Capoiera in what should be a toss-up seems like the safest play here.
Neither Brown nor Capoeira have much interest in taking the fight to the ground. Brown only lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time. Capoeira takes his opponents down at an even lower rate, only doing so 0.45 times per fight. As such, this one will likely be decided on the feet.
The books seem to think Brown has a clear edge in this respect, but I don’t know how sound that is. Taking into account the eye test first, Capoeira destroyed Benoit Saint Denis on the feet, the only fighter to do so in BSD’s young career. Looking deeper into the numbers, Brown’s and Capoeira’s striking numbers are shockingly similar.
Capoeira lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute. This slightly outpaces Brown, who lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute. However, Brown is slightly more efficient, landing 46% of the time, compared to Capoeira’s 42% success rate.
The defensive metrics are even more similar, with each fighter absorbing 3.33 significant strikes per minute. Capoeira’s strike defense is slightly more efficient, successfully guarding against 57% of his opponent’s strikes compared to Brown’s 54%.
The similarities don’t stop there, as their shot dispersal is almost identical as well. Brown lands 62% of his strikes to the head, with 20% going to the body and 18% going to the legs. Capoeira lands slightly lower to the head at 60%, with 24% going to the body and 16% going to the legs.
Capoeira works the clinch slightly more with 21% of his strikes coming in the clinch compared to Brown’s 17%. Nonetheless, these slight differences aren’t enough to definitively tip the fight one way or another.
In all, this one should probably be a pick ‘em. However, the books have the odds stacked against Capoiera despite how even he and Brown are. I’m riding with Capoeira’s moneyline in a fight that should be a great kickoff to the main card.
Best UFC Brown-Dos Santos Bet & Pick: Dos Santos Moneyline +140 at DraftKings
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Niko Price-Alex Morono Pick
Price–Morono Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Price: +200 | Morono: -280
Price +3.5: +115 | Morono -3.5: -150
Over 2.5: +120 | Under 2.5: -150
Price–Morono Preview & Pick
Continuing the main card, veterans Niko Price (15-7) and Alex Morono (24-9) square off in a solid Welterweight matchup. The books seem to anticipate a finish a bit too highly. As such, I’m riding with the over, given Morono’s penchant for going late into the fight.
Morono has been tough to put away throughout his career. In 20 fights, his opponents managed to stop him only twice. Yet, what he has in toughness, he lacks in pure knockout power, as he only has two knockouts to his name.
Both of these contribute to his long average fight length, sitting just below 12 minutes. While this is under the 2.5 rounds on average, it’s skewed lower by a few shorter than average fights. Overall, 14 of Morono’s 20 fights went over 2.5 rounds.
However, it takes two to tango, and Price is susceptible to shorter fights. With an average fight time sitting just over eight minutes, Price has a tendency to win or lose in spectacular fashion. Nevertheless, his approach seems to have changed of late, as his only five fights to go over 2.5 rounds came in his last six trips to the Octagon.
In total, 19 of their combined 36 fights went over 2.5 rounds for a rate of 53%. While they aren’t slow-paced fighters by any means, they don’t throw a particularly high output for Welterweight. Morono lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute, while Price lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute.
Morono’s shot dispersion makes his lack of knockout victories somewhat surprising. He targets the head on 80% of his strikes compared to Price’s 59%. The fact that Price is a little looser with his defense shouldn’t worry over bettors, as Morono hasn’t shown any ability to consistently take advantage of this.
It doesn’t make much sense to have the over pegged in the plus-money with Morono favored as comfortably as they do. However, I won’t complain and will gladly play the over with such a nice edge.
Best UFC Price-Morono Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +120 at DraftKings
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Kevin Holland-Michal Oleksiejczuk Pick
Holland–Oleksiejczuk Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Holland: -315 | Oleksiejczuk: +220
Holland -3.5: -195 | Oleksiejczuk +3.5: +145
Over 1.5: -160 | Under 1.5: +124
Holland–Oleksiejczuk Preview & Pick
In the featured bout of the night, Kevin Holland (25-11) looks to get back in the win column by taking down Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7). While Holland flashed a few submissions in his recent fights, his game isn’t well-tailored to take advantage of Oleksiejczuk’s grappling weaknesses. As such a substantial underdog, I like Oleksiejczuk to win on the feet and overall.
Oleksiejcuk’s losses tend to have something in common. Out of his five UFC defeats, four came by submission. While it’s not a great track record, he’s gone up against a murder’s row of grapplers in amassing these losses. Three of the four came against black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Michel Pereira, Caio Borralho and Jimmy Crute, with the other one coming to BJJ brown belt Ovince Saint-Preux and his notorious Von Flue choke.
Though no loss is a good loss, they aren’t losses to necessarily be ashamed of either. Beyond the losses, his takedown defense leaves something to be desired. He only defends the takedown successfully 48% of the time.
Yet, even with these holes in his game, Kevin Holland isn’t quite tailored to take advantage despite attaining a BJJ black belt of his own. For the past five fights, we’ve been waiting for Holland to use his grappling to his advantage against strikers with questionable ground game. This was especially true in his last fight against Michael “Venom” Page, and in his fight against Stephen Thompson, in which the fighters agreed to remain on the feet. Even with a BJJ blackbelt, and Olekzieczuk’s struggles in the ground game, oddsmakers find it more likely that Holland wins by KO rather than by submission.
Holland’s reluctance to commit to the takedown isn’t a recent phenomenon. He only averages 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time. He flashed his grappling ability against Michael Chiesa, winning by submission halfway through the first round, but in his subsequent two fights, he hardly sought to bring the fight to the ground, despite getting beat on the feet.
Without taking Oleksiejczuk to the ground, Holland will have his hands full. Oleksiejczuk lands 5.06 significant strikes per minute, on 50% efficiency. Perhaps more impressively, he defends at a 61% rate, absorbing only 4.26 significant strikes per minute. This plays well against Holland’s inefficiency on the feet of late. In his fights against Page, Jack Della Madallena and Santiago Ponzinibbio, he landed 47%, 35%, and 33% of his significant strikes, respectively.
Without a clear commitment to using his superior grappling, Holland will likely be outmatched on the feet. I, for one, won’t believe he will change his approach any longer, and am riding with Oleksiejczuk at such slanted odds.
Best UFC Holland-Oleksiejczuk Bet & Pick: Oleksiejczuk Moneyline +220 at DraftKings
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Sean Strickland-Paulo Costa Pick
Strickland–Costa Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Strickland: -275 | Costa: +195
Strickland -5.5: -140 | Costa +5.5: +105
Over 4.5: -105 | Under 4.5: -125
Strickland–Costa Preview & Pick
Despite a respectable performance against Robert Whittaker in his last bout, Paulo Costa (14-3) comes into his bout against former champ, Sean Strickland (28-6) dropping three of his last four. With Strickland’s great striking defense, and Costa’s tendency to absorb more damage than he lands, this is a fight tailormade for Strickland to run away with.
Strickland is surprisingly inefficient when it comes to his own striking. He only lands 41% of significant strikes. Yet, what he lacks in striking efficiency, he makes up for in pressure and defensive efficiency. Strickland gives his opponents very few openings, defending 62% of significant strikes coming his way, and while he doesn’t land at a particularly efficient rate, his pressure allows him to land 5.91 significant strikes per minute.
Costa, on the other hand, is an efficient striker, landing 6.2 significant strikes at a 58% clip, but his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs 6.38 significant strikes per minute, only defending at a 47% rate.
This doesn’t bode well against a fighter like Strickland, who consistently out strikes his opponents by a wide margin. Even in his last fight, a loss to Dricus Du Plessis, Strickland out landed the champ, 173-137.
It’s not a guarantee that landing more significant strikes will result in a lopsided victory, but Costa doesn’t bring much to the table outside of his striking. Where Du Plessis was able to mix it up and work in six takedowns to pull ahead, Costa has little ability to mix it up grappling, only securing 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time.
Strickland isn’t known for his wrestling, but he still lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight-time, at a respectable 64% success rate. While it’s unlikely to tip the balance of the full fight, Strickland could certainly mix in a takedown to steal an even round as the fight draws on.
One of Costa’s biggest hurdles will be the fact he hasn’t fought much of late. While he fought in February, his previous hiatus was nearly two years long. He only fought four times since 2020, and only nine times since his debut in 2017. Strickland is known for his activity. He spars constantly, and takes multiple fights a year. By comparison, he fought 10 times since the start 0f 2020. While some debate the legitimacy of “ring rust,” Strickland’s constant presence in the ring should pay dividends over a five-round fight.
I like Strickland’s spread, as I don’t see Costa keeping up with him on the feet. Absent a knockout, Strickland should cruise to a victory in this one.
Best UFC Strickland-Costa Bet & Pick: Strickland -5.5 -140 at DraftKings
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier | Islam Makhachev–Poirier Pick
Makhachev–Poirier Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Makhachev: -700 | Poirier: +410
Makhachev -5.5: -450 | Poirier +5.5: +300
Over 2.5: +150 | Under 2.5: -195
Makhachev–Poirier Preview & Pick
The Main Event pairs up two future hall of famers, with Islam Makhachev (25-1) looking to defend the belt against Dustin Poirier (30-8). While it’s not shocking that the books have such a high-profile fight pegged well, it’s still unfortunate to not find any edge.
Both fighters’ well-roundedness make it impossible to predict what will happen. I lean heavily towards Makhachev in this one, but the juice isn’t near where it needs to be for it to be a worthwhile bet. Though there isn’t a way to bet on this one in a sharp way, it should be more than exciting enough to make up for it. If only I could bet the over on Dustin Poirier Guillotines.
Best UFC Makhachev-Poirier Bet & Pick: Save your money and enjoy the main card.
