UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 Odds & Picks: Bets for Damon Jackson, Trevor Peek & More

We are officially just one week away from the much-anticipated UFC 300. With a boatload of elite fights on tap next weekend this weekend’s action is… somewhat unremarkable. But even with a not-so-exciting card to deal with, there are still plenty of chances for us to find value in the UFC betting markets this weekend. Let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles or our betting model’s top picks!

UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 Odds & Picks: Bets for Damon Jackson, Trevor Peek & More

Prelim Spotlight: UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Court McGee-Alex Morono Pick

Neither Morono nor McGee are known for their finishing ability. Both fighters’ average fight time exceeds 11 minutes. This is so even with a few first-round stoppages thrown in the mix.

Looking at the raw numbers, 16 of McGee’s 21 fights went over 2.5 rounds (76%). Morono went over in 12 of 19 fights (63%). Combined, they went over in 28 out of 40 fights (70%). This is well over the implied probability for over 2.5 rounds, which sits at only 57%.

The odds are weighted heavily in Morono’s favor. This could skew the data as it pertains to fight time. However, Morono went over 2.5 rounds in eight out of his 12 wins (67%), which exceeds both the rate for his fights generally (63%) and the rate he goes over in losses (57%).

McGee’s losses went over 8 of 11 times (73%), which is lower than his average rate. Nonetheless, it still well exceeds the implied probability of 57%. This suggests that a Morono win will likely go later into the bout. Given that Morono has an implied probability of victory sitting at around 76%, the over 2.5 seems to be a strong bet in this fight.

Best UFC McGee-Morono Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 -135 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Trevor Peek-Charlie Campbell Pick

Peek started his UFC career off solidly. Going 2-1 in his fights after his Contender Series victory, his only loss came against Chepe Mariscal. While his wins came against fighters who have gone a combined 0-3 in the UFC, Campbell’s lone win likewise came against an 0-2 fighter.

Peek’s loss was a dominant victory for Mariscal, but he stayed in the bout the entire time, losing by a unanimous decision. He bounced back nicely, implementing a more wrestle-oriented approach, gaining four takedowns in his next fight. In his three fights, he landed 5.09 significant strikes per minute at a very strong 56% success rate while only absorbing 4.37 significant strikes per minute. He also gets 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which he could attempt to implement against Campbell, who hasn’t been tested with the takedown yet.

Campell’s stats look impeccable. In one UFC fight and one Contender Series fight, he averages 11.03 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 5.42 significant strikes per minute. However, one of the strikes he absorbed shut his lights out only 1:43 into his Contender Series bout. His second effort went far better with him winning by knockout in just under four minutes.

The problem with Campbell’s performances thus far is that he hasn’t been tested in each facet of the game. His 11.03 strikes per minute, if sustainable, would immediately put him into the conversation of greatest strikers in the UFC. However, that is a big if. It’s more likely that he’ll gas himself out if he continues at such a crazy pace.

These are the types of things prospects learn, often the hard way, as they get more experience. Peek has experience going the distance, defending the takedown, and trying to get back to his feet. While he hasn’t been perfect at it, a talented prospect such as himself generally learns from their mistakes and improves.

I am riding with Peek as the underdog in this one, as I think he will push Campbell in ways he hasn’t yet been in the UFC.

Best UFC Peek-Campbell Bet & Pick: Trevor Peek +140 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Valter Walker-Lukasz Brzeski Pick

Brzeski is being somewhat unfairly underrated coming into this one. While he is 0-3 in his UFC career since his fight on the Contender Series, he had a rough schedule. Combined, Brzeski’s opponents are 14-2 in their UFC careers. Even still, Brzeski had a great performance in his debut against Martin Buday, though he lost a brutal split decision that had many fans screaming about robbery.

Brzeski’s traditional stats are solid. He lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute at a 48% hit rate, which is a blazing pace for any heavyweight. Further, he only absorbs 3.46 strikes, which is a stunning difference in the amount of damage he takes compared to the damage he doles out.

Walker looks to make the jump from Titan FC straight to the UFC. It’s hard to determine how much to trust his impressive performances and how they will translate as he switches promotions. Interestingly, Belal Muhammad, a strong contender despite the criticisms of his style, made the jump from Titan FC to the UFC and lost his debut. While this isn’t dispositive as to whether Walker will win, it’s at least some evidence the jump is tough to make, even for great fighters.

The unpredictability of the heavyweight division and lack of data make this fight almost impossible to forecast. I would stay away from this one, but for those who need to bet on every fight on the main card, riding with the underdog makes the most sense.

Best UFC Walker-Brzeski Bet & Pick: Lukasz Brzeski +180 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes-Christos Giagos Pick

While the line for the under 2.5 is set to reflect the raw percentage of times these fighters’ fights end early, it doesn’t account for how often the heavy favorite’s wins — and the big underdog’s losses — end early. As such, there is a slight edge to be had on playing the under 2.5 rounds.

The odds are stacked heavily in Giagos’ favor coming into this one. It’s no surprise, as Giagos has been up and down since entering the UFC, attaining a 6-7 record. One consistent thing about Giagos’ fights is that they tend to be short. His average fight time in the UFC sits at 8:40.

This runs counter to Bahamondes, whose fights drag to the bell quite often. His average fight time is 13:11, which clears the over 2.5 rounds by 40 seconds. While it is a small sample size, four of Bahamondes’ six fights went over the halfway point of the third. Giagos’ fights only went over 2.5 rounds five of 13 times (38%).

Adding their fights together, they went over 2.5 rounds nine of 19 times for a rate of 47%. This aligns almost exactly with the implied probability of the line for the over, which sits at +110. However, the raw numbers are hard to rely on in such an expectedly lopsided fight.

Oddsmakers set the implied probability for a Bahamondes victory at 78%. When breaking down the length of their fights by wins and losses, the results reveal that Bahamondes’ fights tend to be shorter in victories while Giagos’ fights tend to be shorter in losses. In Bahamondes’ four victories, two finished under 2.5 rounds, while both his losses went to the cards. On the flip side, two out of Giagos’ six losses went over (33%), while three of seven (42%) of his wins went over.

While both are small samples, taken together, they tell something potentially very significant: Bahamondes is likelier to win by finish than to lose by finish. At the same time, Giagos is likelier to lose by finish than to win by finish. With the odds heavily in Bahamondes’ favor, this is enough to tilt the balance of the under 2.5 rounds.

I don’t see much of an edge on any other bet in this one, so the edge on the under 2.5, no matter how slight, seems to give bettors the best chance. If it’s too slight for your taste, I suggest holding your money and enjoying this fight as a fan.

Best UFC Bahamondes-Giagos Bet & Pick: Under 2.5 -140 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Morgan Charriere-Chepe Mariscal Pick

Mariscal has more experience than Charriere, and he stopped two solid prospects in his only UFC appearances. Because he showed more in a limited sample, I like Mariscal as the slight underdog — there are just too many question marks surrounding Charriere for my liking.

Charriere had an undoubtedly impressive debut, stopping Manolo Zechinni with brutal kicks to the liver in the first round. This wasn’t a fluke, either, as he landed 26 significant strikes compared to Zechinni’s nine. Ironically, the ease with which he flew through Zechinni gives me pause when analyzing this matchup. On the one hand, Charriere could just be that good, and he will make every fighter lower down in the rankings look that way. On the other, he hasn’t been battle-tested, which could prove costly if he can’t stand up to the numerous challenges a full UFC fight will throw at him.

In his only appearance, Charriere only absorbed nine strikes, didn’t have to defend the takedown or any submission attempts, and was never rocked. He didn’t even have to hold up in his cardio, which is a big test given that he landed 6.75 significant strikes per minute. Far too often fighters that start this way struggle when they’re pulled into deeper waters and are forced to sink or swim.

These questions don’t surround Mariscal nearly to the same degree. First, Mariscal has two quality wins, one against Jack Jenkins and another against Trevor Peek, both of whom are undefeated (3-0) outside of their losses to Mariscal. Further, Mariscal’s fights have gone deeper than Charriere’s, with one ending by decision and another ending in the middle of the second round. While it evidences that Mariscal’s power may not be on the same level as Charriere’s, his ability to fight at the pace he wants is much more dependable.

Mariscal lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute and attains 3.22 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Further, he defends himself sufficiently, only absorbing 3.95 significant strikes per minute and defending the takedown at a 100% clip. This level of aggression and well-roundedness is nothing Charriere experienced to this point in the Octagon. If he were a significant underdog, these question marks would be far easier to accept, but as a favorite, they’re hard to overlook.

Ultimately, we know more about what Mariscal’s strengths and weaknesses are while we don’t know the same about Charriere. I’m willing to ride with the slight underdog for this reason, but it’s entirely possible that I get burned if Charriere is the real deal.

Best UFC Charriere-Mariscal Bet & Pick: Mariscal +100 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Alexander Hernandez-Damon Jackson Pick

Hernandez’s peak in the UFC seems to have come in his first bout. With a stunning KO against Beneil Dariush in his debut, Hernandez was set to put himself in the contender conversation with a few more good wins. Unfortunately, he floundered, going 5-6 in his following eleven fights. Nonetheless, oddsmakers favor him against Jackson, who is coming off two straight losses after rattling off four wins in a row.

This is something of a stylistic clash. Hernandez tends to strike more than he grapples, landing 4.63 significant strikes per minute compared to securing 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the other hand, Jackson attains 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes while only landing 3.02 significant strikes per minute. His grappling ability is best documented by the fact that 14 of his 22 professional victories came by submission. The fight will likely go to the fighter that can successfully impose their preferred style on the other.

In my view, it’s more likely that Jackson will have more success than Hernandez in getting the fight he wants. Hernandez lacks a strong takedown defense, which could put him in difficult positions against Jackson. He only defends the takedown at a 60% rate. Jackson’s strength in grappling shines more when he gets his opponents to the ground than it does in attempting to take his opponents down, so Hernandez’s relative weakness in this regard is a glaring problem.

Further, Hernandez has too many holes in his striking to believe that he can make up for the grappling difference. He throws 4.63 significant strikes per minute, which is solid but nowhere near the most aggressive pace for a featherweight. However, he only lands 41% of his significant strikes thrown. This inefficiency is costly as he absorbs 4.90 significant strikes per minute.

Jackson’s striking is comparably weak, as he lands at a 40% rate and absorbs 0.44 significant strikes per minute than he lands. That Hernandez’s and Jackson’s striking are close is the central issue. Hernandez has too thin of an edge over a grappling-heavy fighter to expect that he can impose his will.

Jackson displays poor takedown defense, but it’s not an area that Hernandez should look to exploit, because it will engage him in the dangerous grappling battles Jackson is hoping for. Overall, I would have the fight slightly favor Jackson, so anything in the plus-money is a worthwhile bet.

Best UFC Hernandez-Jackson Bet & Pick: Jackson +160 at DraftKings

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UFC Fight Night Allen vs. Curtis 2 | Brendan Allen-Chris Curtis Pick

Neither fighter is a stranger to early stoppages. Allen’s career average fight time sits at 8:40 while Curtis’ is 10:59, which is comfortably below the 12:30 seconds we need for the under. The length of the fight may influence the pace in the early rounds, but Middleweights don’t tend to have the same cardio issues as Light Heavyweights and Heavyweights. Taking a slower approach in the early rounds may work for some fighters, but it isn’t always prudent.

Curtis’ main advantage comes with his aggression on the feet. Curtis lands 5.96 significant strikes per minute compared to Allen’s 3.87. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Curtis push the pace to get Allen out of his comfort zone. If successful, Allen won’t have any choice but to match the pace until Curtis is forced to back off. Curtis’ aggression helped him crack Allen’s chin in the first bout, finishing it in the first half of the second round.

Where Allen shines is on the mat. He won eight of his 14 matchups in the Octagon, including his bout on the Contender Series, by submission. This is an area of Curtis’ game that hasn’t been tested, as he boasts a 92% takedown defense rate. However, it is likely the only area Allen will be able to find an advantage, as he only has three decision victories and one knockout to round out his 12 UFC wins.

The main issue with being so grappling dependent is that it will require Allen to put himself in vulnerable positions if the takedown isn’t coming easy. This could give Curtis the opening necessary to crack him with a heavy shot and end the fight early. However, with the bookmakers favoring Allen, they likely expect the fight to find its way to the ground. If it does, Curtis will be in constant danger.

In sum, 10 of Allen’s 14 bouts have gone under 2.5 rounds (71%). For his part, Curtis’ fights went under 2.5 rounds five times out of nine (56%). Combined, 65% of their bouts went under the set line. Given the odds, the implied probability the fight goes under 2.5 rounds sits at 42.5%. While the length of the fight may affect the odds, I don’t see it as being so substantial to overcome a 24% edge.

Best UFC Allen-Curtis Bet & Pick: Under 2.5 +135 at DraftKings

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